KC Royals: Breaking down the 2020 stat projections

Major statistical websites have already updated some 2020 KC Royals projections. Let’s take a look at two of them.

The KC Royals have defied projection systems for years. Not many sites saw the 2014 World Series-bound team being as successful as it was. The same thing happened the following year when the trophy was brought back to Kansas City. As a whole, the team has generally exceeded expectations.

The same goes for the individual players, too. Systems like FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference put out yearly statistical projections for Major League Baseball players. These projections display home run totals, RBI counts, slash lines, and the like. Members of the Royals are no different.

Ahead of the 2020 regular season, I thought it would be a fun idea to take a look at some highlights of FanGraphs and B-Ref’s numbers for this year’s squad. While there are some usual suspects at the top, there are also some surprises thrown in the mix.

A year ago, it was the likes of Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler leading the way for the bats and Brad Keller headlining the rotation. The 2020 roster is very similar to the 2019 one so without further ado, let’s jump in and take a look.

Outfield Projections (and Jorge Soler)

Usual suspect: Whit Merrifield 

Merrifield has been the KC Royals’ best player for some time now. He’s hit above .300 for consecutive seasons and has led the league in hits in both of those campaigns as well. FG expects him to take a small step back (99 wRC+ compared to 110), but B-Ref projects pretty much more of the same. As he moves to the outfield full-time, or close to it, his offensive production should remain stellar.

Pleasant surprises: Brett Phillips, Bubba Starling

Phillips has had a rough past couple of years in a Royals uniform. With that said, his awful performance at the plate could be partially attributed to not having steady reps. It’s unlikely that changes a ton in 2020, but both systems project him to perform at a more playable level. When taking into account his elite-level defense, things may be looking up.

You can insert pretty much everything said about Phillips and apply it to Starling as well. He’s a great defender and a talented baserunner, but his bat leaves more than some to be desired. He was a bit better of a hitter than Phillips last season, so his hike in numbers isn’t quite as extreme.

Disappointing finding: Jorge Soler

Soler’s regression isn’t severe, but the home run total is projected to be. FG predicts a drop from 48 to 35, while B-Ref calls for just 33 long balls. On a one-year contract, it would not be a good thing for him.

Pitching

Usual suspects: Brad Keller, Jakob Junis

Keller, the KC Royals’ top pitcher over the past couple of seasons, is expected to be more of the same in 2020. FanGraphs is down on him, predicting a 4.74 ERA. Baseball-Reference has it dipping back down below 4.00, though, at 3.95. Check out some of our predictions for the rotation here.

Junis could also be listed under “disappointing findings,” due to his return towards the norm not being quite as large as originally hoped. After posting a rather high 5.24 ERA last season, B-Ref projects a 4.83 ERA this year. FG calls for a 4.78 one.

Pleasant surprise: Jorge Lopez

Lopez was a fan favorite and predicted by many to break through in 2019. The opposite was the case, as he was booted from the rotation during the season and as he approaches his 27th birthday, time is ticking for him to prove himself at the MLB level. Both FG and B-Ref project improvement, but by varying standards.

Disappointing finding: Ian Kennedy

Kennedy excelled as a closer in 2019, posting his best season in a Royals uniform. Holding a 3.41 ERA and recording 30 saves, he even managed to generate some trade buzz. Neither FG nor B-Ref thinks that success will be duplicated, with both projecting ERAs well above 4.00.

The 2020 season is a huge one for the Kansas City Royals. While some players will return to form and perhaps force their way into the future plans of the club, others will fade into the darkness and be waived or traded. In an ideal world, every player on the roster will outperform the projections bestowed upon them. It’s baseball, though, so all we can do is look back on these numbers in several months and assess how accurate they turned out to be.