KC Royals: Is the club too quiet around the Hot Stove?

It’s Hot Stove season and several teams, including the American League Central Division clubs, are making moves. The KC Royals have made a couple of trades and signed a few players…but are they doing enough?

As baseball’s Hot Stove season cooled down for the Christmas holiday, one thing was clear in the American League Central Division: hoping to improve, most of its teams are wheeling and dealing, making trades and signing free agents. So far, the KC Royals boast a new third baseman and a few recycled pitchers; but are they doing enough, and will they do more?

Every big league team can stand improvement; nowhere in baseball might this be truer than in the AL Central. The Division’s reputation as one of the weakest and least competitive divisions (if not the weakest and least competitive) is well-earned — only six times in the last 20 seasons have more than two Central Division teams finished above .500. Last season, two Central teams (the KC Royals and Detroit) lost over 100 games.

Its overall weakness renders the Central easy prey for members willing to expend the financial and personnel resources necessary to build contending rosters. Hot Stove season is prime time to do that: via free agency and trades, aggressive teams can load up with new talent geared to win immediately.

Such is the obvious Hot Stove strategy of at least one Central team. Chicago has opened its sizable vault once again and is outdistancing other clubs in adding new talent. On the other hand, Minnesota is busy trying to retain as much of its 2019 title core as it can; Detroit is slowly adding pieces in hopes of improving on its horrible 2019. The Indians, once kings of the Central, appear to be shedding salary.  And, unsurprisingly, the ever-conservative KC Royals are making primarily low-risk, inexpensive deals. How does KC’s approach stack up? Let’s take a look.

(Most clubs are also signing low-profile free agents to minor league deals; some are receiving Spring Training invitations. Discussed here are the more important transactions; because the current market is so fluid, some of the possible deals discussed here may have occurred or failed by now).

The Chicago White Sox thought 2019 would be their year to take the Central Division title away from Cleveland. They were mistaken. They don’t want to be wrong again.

The Chicago White Sox began last season believing their off-season moves made them championship contenders. But the club’s confidence was terribly misplaced: the Sox finished third, 17 games below .500 and 28½ games behind first-place Minnesota. Determined to avoid such embarrassment again, the Sox are spending serious money on serious free agents.

Dallas Keuchel, the Cy Young award-winning, two-time All-Star and key component of the Astros’ 2017 World Series championship team, agreed to a three-year, $55 million deal. Although he was only 8-8 for Atlanta in 2019, it was for Keuchel a season abbreviated by his own reluctance to give in to an inhospitable free agent market. He didn’t settle for a one-year deal with the Braves until June and didn’t pitch until almost July.

With a full season ahead of him, Keuchel is the kind of established veteran hurler the Sox need. He spent the first seven of his eight big league seasons with Houston, winning 20 games in his 2015 Cy Young season and 14 to help them to the 2017 World Series. His control is typically good and his career peripherals commendable: a 110 ERA+, 3.80 FIP and RA9 of less than 4.

Jose Abreu became a free agent at season’s end but wanted to stay in Chicago — so much so, in fact, that he quickly accepted the club’s qualifying offer. He and the Sox then firmed up their future together by agreeing to a three-year, $50 million extension, an unsurprising move considering the mutual admiration society that is the Abreu-White Sox relationship.

The deal secures Abreau’s services, his immense popularity with the fans, and his firepower — he owns a career 134 OPS+ and clubbed 33 homers, drove in 123 runs, and slashed .284/.330/.834 last season. Retaining Abreu saved Chicago from having to fill the gaping first base hole his departure would have opened.

Although James McCann was a serviceable catcher for the Sox in 2019, the signing of Yasmani Grandal solidifies the position. Grandal, a two-time All-Star, led the NL in put-outs by a catcher for three straight seasons before opting for free agency this winter. He won’t hit for average but has power (he homered 28 times for Milwaukee in 2019 and drove in 77 runs), and has 20 or more homers and 50+ RBI’s in four consecutive campaigns.

Right field production was a 2019 problem for Chicago, but Nomar Mozara may be the solution. Obtained in a December 10th trade with Texas for minor league outfielder Steele Walker, Mozara hit 19 home runs in 116 games for the Rangers last year with 66 RBI’s and a .268/.318/.469 slash, and averaged almost 20 homers a season in his four Ranger years.

A dead arm sidelined Gio Gonzalez for part of last season, but that didn’t deter the Sox from signing him to a one-year, $5 million contract — the club has money and can absorb the financial hit if Gonzalez isn’t healthy. A career starter, Gonzalez played two years with Grandal in Milwaukee before testing free agency; although he didn’t pitch much for Milwaukee, his 130 career wins (20 with Washington in 2012) suggest he may be good at the back of the rotation.

Are the Sox done? Rumblings are they are completing a deal with Edwin Encarnacion, a veteran power hitter with at least 32 homers and 100 RBI’s in the last eight seasons. Other reports suggest the club is still interested in Yasiel Puig, Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna; the addition of any one of those outfielders would make the ChiSox even more dangerous than they’ve recently become.

The defending Central Division champion Twins are busy making sure key players stay with the club and adding a bit of help. Whether that’s an adequate strategy for a team that won the Central by eight games remains to be seen.

Minnesota took advantage of an improved roster and Cleveland’s slow 2019 start to win the division by eight games. The Twins kept key elements of their championship team intact as Christmas came, and added an effective reliever and veteran backup catcher.

The club wasted little time signing Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Sergio Romo, three hurlers who helped anchor its Division-winning pitching staff. Odorizzi was the prize retention: the former Royal won 15 games for Minnesota in 2019 and, in 30 starts, posted a 3.51 ERA and 131 ERA+, and averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine innings.

Other teams considered Pineda, who went 11-5 with a 3.51 ERA (114 ERA+) in 26 games, but the Twins were eager to keep him, his good control, and his career 9.0 SO9.  The club also wanted to keep Romo, a 2019 trade deadline acquisition who helped the Twins hold off Cleveland down the stretch — he had a 10.7 SO9 in 27 games, walked only four and quieted opponents’ bats with a 0.926 WHIP.

The Twins bolstered their bullpen with veteran relief workhorse Tyler Clippard, the only pitcher to appear in at least 50 games for 10 straight seasons. Ironically, Clippard pitched last season for Cleveland, going 1-0 with a 2.90 ERA (163 ERA+) and .0855 WHIP. He brings a 1.107 career WHIP and 131 career ERA+ to Minnesota.

As discussed previously in this space, veteran backup catcher Alex Avila could be a serviceable add for most teams needing a backup catcher; the Twins got him on a one-year deal. Although he’s 37 and showing some signs of decline, Avila is a savvy All-Star who has thrown out 30% of would-be base-stealers in 11 big league seasons.

Do the Twins still have work to do? They could use more pitching and need to replace C.J. Cron, the power-hitting first baseman/DH who recently signed with Detroit.

Cleveland didn’t repeat as division champions last season. Despite the team’s disappointing failure to win a fourth straight title, the Tribe seems more interested in cutting payroll than in maintaining a dominating roster.

The biggest Hot Stove news in Cleveland isn’t who the Indians are getting, it’s who they’ve given up and who they might yet give up. Instead of strengthening themselves after losing their grip on the AL Central to Minnesota, the Indians show strong signs of dismantling their championship roster and cutting payroll.

It started with the December 15 trade of Corey Kluber, a rotation mainstay during the Tribe’s title seasons. Although a line drive broke his arm in May and prematurely ended his 2019 season, Kluber won 58 games over the three straight seasons the Indians ruled the Central. And despite his nearly 100 career wins and excellent peripherals (134 ERA+, 2.95 FIP and 1.086 WHIP) the Indians shipped him to Texas for outfielder Delino DeShields and pitcher Emmanuel Clase.

It may continue with an even more shaking move: the Tribe may be shopping franchise backbone and best player Francisco Lindor, a five-year fan favorite who averages 26 homers and almost 78 RBI’s a season to go with a career .288/.347/.854 slash and 118 OPS+. Moving Lindor would likely be a more seismic deal than the infamous trade that sent Cleveland hero Rocky Colavito to Detroit in 1960.

Finally, the Indians may be willing to part with Mike Clevinger, another key rotation piece whose career 41-21 record and 3.20 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.188 WHIP and 10.1 SO9 make him attractive to contending and non-contending teams alike.

The club’s moves and possible moves are probably more money-based than anything; the Tribe saved millions by moving Kluber and would save many more millions if they trade Lindor, who is arbitration-eligible, or Clevinger (or both).

The Tribe’s return from the Kluber deal doesn’t match the sacrifice: DeShields is a speedy (106 stolen bases in five years) but light-hitting (.246 career average and 76 OPS+) part-time outfielder; although Clase has displayed good control and has a 1.114 WHIP and 226 ERA+, those peripherals are based on only 23.1 big league innings.

Cleveland also re-signed reliever James Hoyt, who it dropped from the 40-man roster just before the tender deadline; Hoyt appeared in eight games for the Tribe in 2019, posting a 2.16 ERA, 10.8 SO9 and 2.2 BB9. An Astro for three years before joining the Tribe, he has a career 11.7 SO9.

If the Indians are contemplating major additions, they’re keeping those plans quiet. It’s more likely that more outbound moves are coming.

Although they lost over 100 games for the second straight season, the KC Royals aren’t making loud noises around the Hot Stove. The acquisitions they have made won’t make them contenders…but that may be just fine for now.

The KC Royals, losers of 207 games over the last two seasons, won’t contend for anything better than third or fourth place in the AL Central this season. Only by spending budget-breaking sums could the club even hope to make a title run, but such financial sacrifices are not the Royal way.

So it is that the Royals, as is their custom, have been quiet this Hot Stove season. With the exception of signing third baseman Maikel Franco, the club’s moves have been low-risk, relatively cheap acquisitions designed to salvage other clubs’ pitching discards and add players who might help while the franchise awaits the maturation of its present roster and hot prospects.

Its impact on the lineup makes the addition of Franco the club’s biggest move so far. He’ll displace Hunter Dozier as the every day third baseman; Dozier will move to right field and Whit Merrifield to center, leaving Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling to fight over left field if Alex Gordon retires, but leaving one of them, or both, without a roster spot if Gordon returns.

Franco is a capable hitter with power, as his 20+ homers in four of his six Philadelphia seasons prove, but needs to find his way on base more often (.234/.297/.409 slash last season). His defense needs improvement. But if he and the ripple effect his acquisition will have on the lineup work out, Franco will become one of General Manager Moore’s better deals.

The KC Royals’ other main moves (well documented previously in this space) are typical Moore efforts to shore up the club’s shaky pitching with reclamation projects of varying degrees. Trevor Rosenthal hopes to recapture the form that made him one of the Cardinals’ best-ever relievers; Chance Adams is looking to overcome injury and regain the effectiveness that once made him one of the Yankees’ top prospects, and Braden Shipley will get the opportunity to realize the potential he occasionally displayed in Houston’s system.

(The club also signed Matt Reynolds, Humberto Arteaga and Jesse Hahn).

So, how do the Royals’ Hot Stove transactions stack up against those of their Central Division rivals? Unlike the Indians, the KC Royals aren’t dumping large chunks of payroll; unlike Minnesota, they’re not focused on retaining key assets — Gordon is their only free agent and no signs point to major trades. And unlike the White Sox, KC isn’t spending huge amounts to win now. 

Instead, the KC Royals are similar to Detroit at this point: both clubs are conservatively taking incremental steps to meet certain needs. But the Royals are better positioned for success than the Tigers: KC has more and younger talent in the majors and a bevy of promising pitchers on the verge of big league readiness.

For this Hot Stove season, the KC Royals are willing to make small moves designed not to win now, but to prepare and build for the day their present lineup fully matures and future stars like Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Khalil Lee and Bobby Witt, Jr., are ready for the majors. Considering the depth and quality of such present and future talent, being seen but not heard around the Hot Stove may be the best approach for the KC Royals.

Not surprisingly, Dayton Moore and the KC Royals aren’t dominating the Hot Stove season. Content to make their typical conservative moves, and with the exception of landing a new, established third baseman, the Royals are simply filling holes while they wait for the professional maturation of their own homegrown talent. The dividends will be paid down the road.