Kansas City Royals: 3 underrated trades to improve rotation

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The Kansas City Royals will need to make improvements to their rotation this offseason and here are three players the team should consider trading for.

The Kansas City Royals’ rotation is a disaster. There’s really no way to sugar coat that fact. Guys like Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez, and Eric Skoglund (to some extent) were given a long look to know that they will not be part of the future rotation. A rotation that will one day likely include names like Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, and potentially others.

The team has something in Brad Keller who showed flashes of being brilliant this season. In his first full season as a starter, Keller displayed a vanishing slider that produced a 30 percent whiff rate and 0.194 opponents’ batting average. After only throwing 38 changeups this year, Keller will need to develop this pitch in the offseason and into Spring Training to become a complete pitcher.

Danny Duffy put together a fantastic month of September after being inconsistent and landing on the injured list prior to that. His 2.73 ERA was the best final month of the regular season in Duffy’s career but he could potentially find himself in the bullpen next year. Ian Kennedy currently serves as the team’s closer but his contract is off the books after 2020.

The Royals will need someone on the current roster, in the farm system or outside the organization to fill the spot. Right now, it would appear to make the most sense to slide Duffy into that role with him serving as a potential setup man in 2020. Again, this is all assuming he’s removed from the rotation next year.

Understandably so, the team would have to make a reactionary move in the event that Duffy gets moved and let’s be honest with ourselves, they need to make a move this offseason regardless of Duffy’s status to vastly improve the rotation. Let’s take a look at three underrated trades that the Royals should look into this offseason.

1. Kyle Freeland

Selected as the eighth overall pick in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, Kyle Freeland would be an immediate improvement for the Kansas City Royals rotation. He posted a 17-7 record and 2.85 ERA in 2018 but took a massive step backward this year. The 26-year old went 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA in 22 starts for the Rockies.

He got off to a horrific start and was demoted to Triple-A in late May. So why the heck would the Royals want him? Well, a closer look at his numbers reveals that Coors Field was not kind to him, as is the case with most starting pitchers. Freeland had a 9.25 ERA in 10 home starts versus a 4.61 ERA in 12 road starts.

Freeland has a terrific slider and curveball and was able to get a 28.0 and 35.4 whiff rate on these pitches, respectively. That being said, opposing batters hit 0.381 off his curveball this season which tells me that they were catching far too much of the strike zone.

Looking back to his 2018 season, Freeland has increased the spin rate on every single one of his pitches but it looked like he was still trying to develop the command of his pitches. Combined with the nature of Coors Field, being sent down and being recalled, and dealing with a left groin strain, it was not a good season for Freeland which might be more of a reason for the Rockies to be willing to part with him.

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Away from Coors Field, he was able to produce an opponent slash line of 0.259/0.328/0.442 and a 7.62 K/9 (5.85 at home). His 0.287 road BABIP was under the league average and I am inclined to believe that he would return to normalized statistics if the Royals were to make a move for him. Freeland is under team control through the 2022 season so this trade would make a lot of sense.

2. Tyler Beede

Tyler Beede is another guy that could likely use a change of scenery and the Kansas City Royals could swoop in to grab him at the right time. Especially considering that it looks like the San Francisco Giants will be headed into a full rebuild this offseason with the likely departures of key members like Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and potentially Brandon Crawford.

Beede was the Giants’ 14th overall pick in the 2014 MLB draft and made just 2 starts last season for the team. He posted an 8.22 ERA in those starts but that’s far too small of a sample size. This year, the 26-year old made 22 starts for the team and posted a 5-10 record with a 5.08 ERA. He struck out 113 batters in 117.0 innings but allowed 22 home runs and 46 walks.

A closer look at his numbers indicates that batters were able to square him up pretty good this season with an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph and a hard-hit rate of 43.7 percent, both in the bottom 4 percent of the league.

Beede features a wicked curveball that induced a 51 percent whiff rate and 0.151 opponents’ batting average. The problem was his fastball, which batters teed off for 16 home runs and a 0.495 slugging percentage. His other plus pitch is the changeup which had 10 percent more vertical drop than the league average but yielded a 0.289 batting average. Both his changeup and slider had whiff rates of 37 and 38 percent, respectively, but batters struck the ball well when they made contact.

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He’s still a young guy and this would be a perfect time for the Royals to buy low while the Giants may be potentially open to moving everyone this offseason. The nice thing about Beede is that he is under team control through the 2024 season as well.

3. Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn could potentially provide the most upside in a starting pitcher coming over via trade but the downside is the contract he would bring. The Rangers finished with a mediocre 78-84 record and could look to rebuild with both the Astros and Athletics dominating the top of the division.

Lynn finished the 2019 season with a 16-11 record and a 3.67 ERA in 33 starts for the team while striking out 246 batters in 208.1 innings of work. He has a terrific fastball that tops out on average near 95 mph and had 144 of his 246 strikeouts via this pitch. Batters hit just 0.218 off his fastball and whiffed 31 percent of the time. With an average spin rate of 2482 RPM, it’s fairly easy to see why.

He also has plus pitches in his curveball and changeup in which he was able to produce a 38 and 25 percent whiff rate, respectively. Lynn’s changeup only produced 1 strikeout all season but batters were only able to hit 0.231 off this pitch.

The 32-year old pitcher signed a three-year deal with the Rangers last offseason and could potentially be moved. The only question is if the Royals are willing to take on his remaining $20.6 million over the next two seasons. However, Lynn would be a perfect mentor for the younger pitchers that will be making their big league debuts within the next couple of seasons while also serving an immediate need.

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Lynn’s barrel rate of 5.9 percent, average exit velocity of 87.4 mph, 0.228 XBA, and 32.1 percent hard-hit rate were all below the league average in 2019. This move would make a lot of sense but, again, it would likely come down to whether John Sherman wants to take on nearly $21 million in his first season as owner.

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The Kansas City Royals will need to make improvements to their rotation this offseason and here are three players the team should consider trading for.

1. Kyle Freeland

2. Tyler Beede

3. Lance Lynn

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