Kansas City Royals: The case for trading Scott Alexander

Just how good was Alexander in 2017?

To further accentuate the great season Alexander had, advanced analytics loved him. The stat I love to focus on here is gmLI — or game-entering Leverage Index. It measures how intense the situations are when a reliever enters the game. Alexander’s gmLI in 2017 was 1.60, which is considerably higher than the league average of 1.00. This means that, on average, the Royals used him in higher leverage situations than normal. So if it seems like he was extremely reliable, that is because he was.

In fact, out of all pitchers in the MLB who had a gmLI at or above 1.60, are still on their rookie contract and pitched more than 60 innings, only one had a lower ERA than Alexander. That distinction is held by Corey Knebel, who notched 39 saves for the Milwaukee Brewers and was elected an All-Star.

Another stat that will make your eyes pop is Alexander’s ground-ball percentage. This number is simply the percentage of all balls put in play that are hit on the ground. Out of everyone who pitched a mere two innings or more, he led the majors with a 73.8 percent ground-ball rate. This translates well to inducing double plays, which seems to be a common occurrence for him. In other words, Alexander posed a value nearly unmatched by any other reliever in 2017.

If a team needs someone, especially a lefty, to come out of the bullpen and get you out of danger, this could be one of the best options. These statistics, coupled with several years of team control, display why teams close to the top of the league may want to trade for a guy like Alexander.

This all sounds great, so why trade Alexander?

As of now, Alexander remains a member of the Kansas City Royals for five more seasons. He won’t be this cheap once he hits arbitration, but he is relatively controllable. While he may project well over the next few seasons, we need to be realistic about where this team is headed and Alexander’s longevity in the league.

It seems imminent that the Kansas City Royals will be undergoing a retooling phase of sorts. Although some estimate that this could take as little as two or three years, Alexander may not pose as much value to the team when they are ready to win again as he does now.

For one, if the Royals are back in the thick of things in the American League, it will undoubtedly be thanks in part to a new wave of talent. It’s important to remember that Alexander will be on the wrong side of 30 at this point. And to consider that paying our young talent will be more important than retaining aging relievers. Also, take into account the generally short lifespan of relievers. Outside of the best closers in each generation, short relievers usually don’t have years upon years of continuous success.

The likelihood, as much as I hate to admit, that Alexander poses as great of value to the team in 2020 as he does now, is small. Even if Alexander keeps this up, the chance to acquire an integral piece of our next (hopeful) championship run outweighs the value of having a pitcher of his caliber during seasons that look to be bleak.

Furthermore — unless Alexander is even better next season — his value now is higher than it will be at next summer’s trade deadline. Moore needs to trade him while his value is at its peak. These are moves you have to make if you want to have a successful rebuild. It would certainly be sad to see him go. But a team who is just a piece or two away from winning may relish the opportunity to acquire an arm like this.

What teams could use Alexander?

Houston Astros — Despite their recent World Series championship, the bullpen struggles in Houston have been no secret. A stopgap lefty may have propelled them over Kansas City in Game 4 of the 2015 ALDS, too.

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Texas Rangers — The Rangers haven’t figured out how to keep their staff healthy in recent seasons. To combat this, the club is considering a six-man rotation, which puts greater pressure on their bullpen. The team is reportedly viewing the recently acquired Mike Minor as a starter going into next season, leaving room for another lefty in that bullpen.

Minnesota Twins — Despite being a division rival, watch out for Minnesota. The Twins appear extremely encouraged at the steps forward that their young stars took in 2017. This offseason, the team is looking to make a splash by signing a big free agent starting pitcher such as Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. The club is reportedly looking to acquire cheap bullpen reinforcement via the trade market, as well.

Los Angeles Angels — The Angels are watching their “Mike Trout window” quickly close. They are rumored to be looking to bolster their lineup and rotation with big-time free agents such as Mike Moustakas and Shohei Otani. If Los Angeles wants to address its bullpen, it will like have to scour the trade market for controllable and productive arms, such as Alexander.

Next: Royals 2017 award winners

Do you think it would be wise for the Kansas City Royals to consider trading Scott Alexander this offseason in an effort to spark the “rebuild”? Let us know your thoughts.