Kansas City Royals: How to 'Moneyball' this winter to remain competitive

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OAKLAND, CA – JANUARY 07: (L-R) Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, Jason Giambi and manager Bob Geren pose for a photo during a news conference January 7, 2008 in Oakland, California. After seven years with the New York Yankees, Jason Giambi has returned to the Oakland Athletics, signing a one year deal with a $4 million salary. The A’s will have a $6.5 million option for 2010 with a 1.25 million buyout. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) /

There are many strategies the Kansas City Royals could use to rebuild the team this winter. Here’s a fun look at how a “Moneyball” strategy could work out.

Dayton Moore is going to have to make some tough decisions this offseason regarding his roster. Everyone is aware of the challenges that the Kansas City Royals front office faces, and much has been made about how they should attack this offseason. You may have read my opinions on the site by now. But today, I’m here to offer you a different perspective.

If you’ve ever seen the movie “Moneyball,” you may remember the scene in which Jonah Hill’s character, Pete, is introduced to Billy Beane, portrayed by Brad Pitt, in his front office. Pitt as Beane, who is still part of the Oakland front office, says to his players, essentially, they cannot replace star first basemen Jason Giambi, but they might be able to recreate him in the aggregate.

Beane’s players looked the way a lot of you probably look right now: totally confused. “What? What’s an aggregate? Are we going to try to clone Eric Hosmer? Who’s Jason Giambi?” Relax, I’m here to explain this theory to you.

(DISCLAIMER: This article is, more or less, aimed at having a fun time with the movie “Moneyball” and is in no way a scientific art of filling out the Royals lineup for next season.)

(FILE PHOTO) In this composite image a comparison has been made between Billy Beane (L) and Actor Brad Pitt. Oscar hype continues this week with the announcement of the nominations for the 84th Academy Awards. Luise Rainer became the first actress to receive an Academy Award for her role in the 1936 biopic ‘The Great Ziegfeld,’ playing stage performer Anna Held. Over half of the last ten Oscars for best actor or actress have been for performances in a biopic. ***LEFT IMAGE***PHOENIX – MARCH 7: General Manager Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics looks on during the MLB spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks on March 7, 2005 at Phoenix Municipal Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona. The A’s defeated the Diamondbacks 5-0. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)***RIGHT IMAGE***NEW YORK, NY – DECEMBER 06: Actor Brad Pitt attends the World premiere of ‘The Tourist’ at Ziegfeld Theatre on December 6, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images) /

The Theory

Essentially what Beane and the Oakland A’s front office decided to do in the movie was to combine certain stats of their three big free agents. The Kansas City Royals have a very similar situation on their hands heading into 2018. They don’t have enough money to bring back Lorenzo Cain, Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Instead, they will have to get creative in order to replace their offensive production.

The best way that I can think to do this is to “Moneyball” the heck out of it. The Kansas City Royals are going to need to find some offense for the 2018 season, and they’re going to have to do it on a budget.

In 2017, the combined on-base percentage of Cain, Hosmer and Moose was 1.062. Divide that among the three of them and you get .354. Ideally then, according to the movie, the Kansas City Royals would look to find three players whose average OBP is .354.

To be fair, this is going to be really tough. With the value that is currently placed on guys who can get on base, it’s difficult to find them for cheap. Luckily for KC and Moore, they might be able to fill one of the three positions with someone who’s already in their system.

The Young Stallion

When looking for a third baseman for 2018, the Kansas City Royals need not look further than Hunter Dozier. He’s a consensus top-10 prospect in the team’s system among most major publications. And he has earned much of the recognition that he’s gotten.

Dozier, a 26-year old third baseman out of Stephen F. Austin, has a career slash line of .261/.343/.432/.775 in the minor leagues. He does a pretty good job of taking a walk. And he would be the cheapest good option that Moore has at his disposal for any of the three positions.

I don’t expect Dozier to get on base at a .343 clip in his first season at the big leagues. FanGraphs’ Steamers Projections don’t look too kindly on Dozier for the 2018 season. But I think we can realistically expect that Dozier can get on base at a .315-.320 clip next season. Whit Merrifield is a decent comp for Dozier (age and drafted out of college), and Whit’s career minor league OBP is 10 points lower than Dozier’s. Merrifield posted a .323 OBP in 2016, his first big-league season, and I think Dozier is capable of getting close to that.

So, there’s one guy. You’re never guaranteed to get anything out of any player, but that’s especially true when it comes to rookies. Yes, I think Dozier is capable of getting on base at a .320 clip next year. In order to hedge my bets, if I was Moore, I would be looking for veterans to fill out my next two holes: center field and first base.

CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 06: Austin Jackson /

The Savvy Vet

Let’s start with center field. The Kansas City Royals aren’t bringing back Cain. I’ve accepted it, and you should probably get used to it, too. One guy who I think the Royals need to take a good, hard look at is center fielder Austin Jackson. He’s a free agent this offseason after spending 2017 in Cleveland. Some numbers for you:

Here’s Jackson’s career slash line: .275/.336/.403/.739
Here’s Jackson last season (85 games): .318/.387/.482/.869

I would expect Jackson to perform closer to his career line in 2018. I don’t know what got into him in 2017. But I wouldn’t hold my breath that he’s capable of duplicating those numbers.

Luckily for KC, they wouldn’t need Jackson to duplicate those numbers. The just need him to be somewhere in between. Let’s say that Jackson slashed something like .280/.345/.410/.755 next season, and the Royals could get him on a two-year contract worth $18 million. I would be in love with that deal. Kansas City gets a cheap, veteran center fielder who can fill in nicely until one of Donnie Dewees or Michael Gigliotti is ready to take over full-time.

The problem with this, of course, is banking on a 31-year old to produce at a that level. I think Jackson is capable of getting on base at a .345 clip. But it isn’t something I would take to the bank either.

In order to complete the trifecta, the Kansas City Royals need to aim big for their final roster opening: first base. If you have ever read anything that I’ve written for Kings of Kauffman, you may have a good idea of where I’m going with this.

The Thoroughbred

The lifeblood of the Kansas City Royals lineup in 2017 came from their first baseman Hosmer. The recipient of a (controversial) Silver Slugger award this offseason and also a (even more controversial) Gold Glove award. The Kansas City Royals need to aim to bring back their homegrown superstar in 2018.

Yes, the easiest way to gather a collection of three players whose average OBP is .354 would be to sign one player who posted an OBP of .385 last season. The Kansas City Royals desperately need Hosmer for multiple reasons. Ticket sales, fandom, a new TV deal, the ability to compete and the need for a superstar are all reasons that the team need to bring back Hosmer.

And while signing Hosmer would be a bit different route than the A’s took in real life and subsequently in the movie, the Royals are in a much better financial situation than Oakland and can probably afford to bring Hosmer back within a certain price range.

If you scroll through the Kings of Kauffman website long enough, you’ll find plenty of articles that I wrote detailing the Royals’ need for Hosmer. They need him, and I am of the belief that they will do everything in their power to bring him back.

KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 05: Dayton Moore, left, general manager of the Kansas City Royals talks with owner and Chief Executive Officer David Glass during batting practice at Kauffman Stadium on September 5, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Reed Hoffmann/Getty Images) /

Conclusion

Death and taxes. Those are the only things in life that are said to be guaranteed. If everything that I ever wrote up came to fruition, someone would have already hired me to be their GM. In no way am I suggesting that any of these things will happen. What I am stating, however, is that there is a path to competition next season for the Kansas City Royals.

More from Kings of Kauffman

If the Royals could get in the range of a .320 OBP from Dozier, .340 from Jackson and .380 from Hosmer next season, the average of those three OBPs would be .347. That’s not quite .354, but the Royals hit another stroke of luck because they don’t need to it be exactly .354.

The team had two of the worst nine OBPs in all of baseball last season in their lineup. Alex Gordon can’t possibly be as bad in 2018 as he was in 2017, so there ought to be some improvement there. Raul Mondesi is also assumed to be ready to take over at shortstop. All he’d have to do is post an OBP of .273 in order to be an improvement from Alcides Escobar last season. (In 2017, Mondesi’s OBP in Triple-A Omaha was .340.)

If the Kansas City Royals can get figure out a way to get improvement from the two gaping holes they had in their lineup in 2017 (LF and SS), get some production from Hunter Dozier in his rookie season, then, ideally, they’re only an Austin Jackson addition and Eric Hosmer reunion away from being competitive again in 2018.

Next: Top 10 outfielders in Royals history

Well, according to Jonah Hill and Brad Pitt, that is.

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Kansas City Royals: How to ‘Moneyball’ this winter to remain competitive