Kansas City Royals: How to ‘Moneyball’ this winter to remain competitive

The Young Stallion

When looking for a third baseman for 2018, the Kansas City Royals need not look further than Hunter Dozier. He’s a consensus top-10 prospect in the team’s system among most major publications. And he has earned much of the recognition that he’s gotten.

Dozier, a 26-year old third baseman out of Stephen F. Austin, has a career slash line of .261/.343/.432/.775 in the minor leagues. He does a pretty good job of taking a walk. And he would be the cheapest good option that Moore has at his disposal for any of the three positions.

I don’t expect Dozier to get on base at a .343 clip in his first season at the big leagues. FanGraphs’ Steamers Projections don’t look too kindly on Dozier for the 2018 season. But I think we can realistically expect that Dozier can get on base at a .315-.320 clip next season. Whit Merrifield is a decent comp for Dozier (age and drafted out of college), and Whit’s career minor league OBP is 10 points lower than Dozier’s. Merrifield posted a .323 OBP in 2016, his first big-league season, and I think Dozier is capable of getting close to that.

So, there’s one guy. You’re never guaranteed to get anything out of any player, but that’s especially true when it comes to rookies. Yes, I think Dozier is capable of getting on base at a .320 clip next year. In order to hedge my bets, if I was Moore, I would be looking for veterans to fill out my next two holes: center field and first base.