Kansas City Royals: Early Prediction of 2018 Starting Rotation

There are no shortage of options for the starting rotation, but let’s see which players have the best chance to start for the Kansas City Royals in 2018.

A lot of focus on the Kansas City Royals centers around the possible departure of the Core Four, but Dayton Moore will have some interesting options for the starting rotation in 2018. Let’s take a look.

Locks:

Danny Duffy — Prior to 2017, the Kansas City Royals re-upped Duffy to the tune of five years and $65 million. While he seemingly didn’t have as good a season as we hoped, he was extremely reliable prior to his injury. In his 24 starts in 2017, he averaged six innings pitched, just under six hits and 2.5 earned runs per outing. Even during a disappointing season, Duffy was a walking quality start. That is why we consider him our ace.

He did undergo a surgical procedure to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow, but this should be seen as a positive. This injury has been nagging Duffy for the past two seasons, and we are already halfway through his expected six-week recovery period. He will be back and ready to rock come February. I am very excited for the next four seasons of Danny Duffy.

Ian Kennedy — The goal here is not to sugarcoat how awful Kennedy’s 2017 campaign was. He made the spacious Kauffman Stadium feel like a Little League-sized field. He had perhaps his worst full season as a professional. You can look at this in one of two ways: The first way would be to say that Kennedy will not bounce back in his age-33 season and beyond, and the Kansas City Royals need to find a way to get him off their books. On the other, more logical hand, you can look at Kennedy’s track record and note that, despite his down season, he is very capable of lowering his ERA closer to 4.00 and eating up over 200 innings in 2018.

A season like that would be very valuable to a team that will be young and in a retooling stage. Kennedy has already stated that he would be “stupid” to turn down his player option, so I fully expect to see him don a Royals jersey going forward.

Jason Hammel — Here we have another pitcher who posted an ERA north of 5.00 for the Boys in Blue in 2017. Hammel was a late signing last offseason, and a lot of Kansas City Royals fans quickly grew weary. When he is on his game, he is very serviceable. However, his full body of work is concerning. Hammel’s 2017 season numbers were not that much worse than his career averages. Therefore, what we saw in 2017 is what we are likely to get in 2018. Although the team is likely to buy out Hammel after next season, he’ll be our steady No. 3 and be expected to eat up 180-200 innings in 2018.

Out-of-House Options

It is reasonable to expect Moore to try and add some starting pitching depth to the club via free agency. While Moore will likely not spend the kind of money that Masahiro Tanaka, Alex Cobb, Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish will command, he seems poised to bring somebody in. My expectation is a deals that is at, or below, a $10 million annual average value and on no more than a two- or three-year deal.

Here’s a few pitchers who may fit the bill:

Andrew Cashner — The Kansas City Royals have flirted with Cashner on the trade market over the past few seasons. And while he is an interesting option, he comes with some concerns. Cashner has struggled to remain healthy in the past few seasons and does not strike out a lot of batters. Still, he could be a viable option.

Jeremy Hellickson — Buck Showalter has made comments that make the return of Hellickson to Baltimore seem unlikely and with good reason — he had a down year in 2017. Hellickson has been relatively reliable over the course of his entire career. Due to his recent struggles, Hellickson may be available for cheap.

Wade Miley — Baltimore looks ready to buy Miley out of his current contract. Since leaving Arizona and converting to the American League, his numbers haven’t been as good. However, Miley is only 30 years old and should be well within the Royals’ price range. Kansas City could use a guy who can mentor a new wave of youngsters and eventually be traded at the deadline in a few years. He will be a guy to watch this offseason.

Jason Vargas — If all other options have been exhausted, Vargas is a guy we may see return. It’s pretty safe to assume that the team won’t extend a qualifying offer to Vargas. But due to his poor performance down the stretch in 2017, he may fit in well with the limited financial options of the Royals. In his two healthy seasons in Kansas City, Vargas rarely missed starts and ate up a ton of innings. He may be back on a two- or three-year deal.

Long Shots

Josh Staumont — A highly touted prospect, Staumont will be an interesting option for the 2018 rotation. He has failed to put together a memorable season in the minors thus far. But he continues to offer that incredible fastball clocked at over 100 MPH. Staumont will likely head back to Northwest Arkansas or Omaha after the spring to work on his command, but he may get a look with the big league club at some point in 2018.

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Sam Gaviglio — Gaviglio bounced around the league in 2017, and he pitched pretty well in his short stint with the Kansas City Royals. Gaviglio will naturally be in the rotation competition by being in the right place at the right time. His relatively unknown ability will make him an interesting prospect for one of the last few roster spots.

Eric Skoglund — Who could forget his debut against Detroit in May? It was one of the best individual performances of the season. Skoglund was sure to be the feel good story of the season. Over his next six appearances, however, his ERA was north of 14.00. Skoglund will also be in the mix by default, but he will certainly be a long shot.

My prediction:

1. Danny Duffy
2. Ian Kennedy
3. Jason Hammel
4. Wade Miley — free agent acquisition
5. Jake Junis

In the bullpen — Nate Karns and Brian Flynn

In the minors — Josh Staumont, Sam Gaviglio and Eric Skoglund

Although the exact order is subject to change, the top three guys are locks. I see Moore attempting to plug in someone new later on in the rotation, which is where Miley comes in. And as mentioned, I think that Junis’ performance down the stretch earned him a shot at a full season of work.

Next: Reasons 2017 Became a Down Year

Regardless, stay tuned throughout the offseason and spring training to see how the 2018 rotation shakes out.