Draft Analysis: Nobody Knows Anything (including the KC Royals)

Even if you think what the KC Royals have done so far in the draft is good, just remember: nobody knows anything. The draft is the ultimate dice roll.

I think what the KC Royals have done over the first 10 rounds of the draft is pretty exciting.

Nick Pratto stands a chance of being Eric Hosmer 2.0 (which is not a dig at Pratto or Hosmer, I promise). An early grab of a high-upside catcher (M.J. Melendez) is always nice, and he’s a coaches kid to boot–can’t go wrong with them.

Junior college pitcher’s (Evan Steele and Daniel Tillo) with SEC pedigrees? Sign me up, son. I’m even more enticed by Lipscomb speedster Michael Gigliotti, who possesses a rare combination of plate awareness and speed and who I actually feel half-qualified to talk about based on seeing him play in person a few times.

There’s more, but you get the general idea. On paper, the KC Royals have done well for themselves.

And now I want to take this opportunity to remind you of something, and I want you to commit it to memory: instant reactions to MLB draft picks are pointless.

(Hang on, want to go bold and all caps and stuff on the next slide so you really get the idea.)

Nobody knows who any of these people are

The NBA may want to preserve the integrity of the league with an age limit, but that’s a half-truth. The league has an ingrained star-maker in the NCAA Tournament, which introduces the country to many of the nation’s most tantalizing prospects. It allows fans to develop allegiances and opinions about players on the biggest stage. The buzz for the NBA Draft starts building in mid-March, when fans get treated to Lonzo Ball vs. DeAaron Fox and other high-level matchups of top prospects.

(Except for, weirdly, last season’s No. 1 overall pick and the odds-on favorite to be 1-1 this year. The NBA is a weird place sometimes.)

MLB can’t make the same claim. In giving high schoolers a chance to earn a wage at their chosen craft—THE WAY OUR FOUNDING FATHERS INTENDED—they lose a lot of the potential for people to connect early.

Of the 36 people selected in the first round and first supplemental round, 16 made their way into the NCAA Regional round.

Nine got to the best-of-three Super Regional.

Four—Louisville’s Brendan McKay (Tampa Bay), Florida’s Alex Faedo (Seattle), LSU’s Alex Lange (Chicago Cubs) and Oregon State’s Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay in the supplemental round)—have made it through to Omaha.

This is nobody’s fault, but it’s certainly to MLB’s detriment. Ideally, you’d like your future stars shining on their biggest stage, which happens to coincide quite nicely around your draft. But unlike basketball, which can more heavily rely on individual stars to guarantee team success, baseball needs talent around talent to make a deep postseason run. Of the 20 players from four-year schools among the first 36 picks, just as many didn’t even make the NCAA field as advanced to Omaha.

These guys won’t make an impact for several years, if at all

In 2010, Harper headlined one of the better first-round classes in recent memory—he was 1-1, with Manny Machado, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, Yasmani Grandal and Chris Sale all coming off the board in the first 16 picks.

Also drafted during that time were:

• Barrett Loux (not in baseball anymore, to my knowledge)
• Karsten Whitson (drafted, did not sign and not currently playing baseball)
• Michael Choice (272 career at-bats in the majors, currently in Double-A)
• Deck McGuire (on his fifth organization, has never appeared above Triple-A)
• Jake Skole (washed out of baseball and is currently on Georgia’s football roster)
• Hayden Simpson (cut by the Cubs in 2012, washed out of independent ball in 2013.)

Imagine a Sliding Doors universe where Pomeranz came to the KC Royals or the Diamondbacks took Harvey instead of Loux.

And that’s the takeaway. At best, a meteoric riser like Brandon Finnegan emerges and can help quickly, but usually only as a relief arm and only in the sort of dire straits that brought Finnegan to KC in the first place. Even Harper didn’t come up until nearly two full seasons after he was drafted.

It’s an impossible position for MLB to be in: “Hey, tune into our draft. It’s mostly grown men having opinions about teenagers who won’t be with the club you live and die with until three or four years down the line, and that’s if absolutely everything breaks perfectly.”

Next: Patrick Probably Feels Differently About the Draft Than I Do

Tl; dr: worrying and arguing about the projectability of 18-22 year olds who happen to have unnatural arm strength or enhanced fast-twitch muscles is a stupid and pointless exercise, even though we all agree it’s necessary and vital for three days each June. With that out of the way, please read Patrick’s recap of Day One from the KC Royals perspective, above.