KC Royals Potential Departures, Vol. 5: Eric Hosmer

Many tough choices are going to be made at Kauffman Stadium over the next few months. Eric Hosmer is a big one, and the last potential free-agent we’ll look at here for the KC Royals.

Name: Eric Hosmer

Agent: Scott Boras

Career Numbers:

Importance: Starting first baseman and middle-of-the-order bat

History of Success

Eric Hosmer is the Joe Flacco of MLB first basemen.

Is he elite? Is he not elite? Does he suck? Does he matter more to the KC Royals than he would any other franchise? What’s that worth? Just because you won one title with him, is that an outlier or a foundation to build on?

That’s a lot of questions. There are very few answers. You might feel like Hosmer is the franchise cornerstone that the KC Royals can’t afford to lose lest they fall back into a mid-90s malaise. You could also believe that Hosmer’s presence puts the team a couple of quality bullpen arms and some table-setters at the top of the lineup away from contention.

Or, you might believe he’s a financial liability that could be jettisoned for the betterment of the franchise.

The truth is out there. And it’s liable to cost $160 million to find out.

Sustainability

Hosmer is already rebounding nicely from his disastrous start to the season and will undoubtedly settle into a .275/20 homer/85 RBI season—typical Hosmer.

And he’s not yet 28 years old. He’s still got a few prime years left. Investing in Eric Hosmer is not the problem.

The problem is investing heavily in the traditional corner-position slugger.

Look at the best first basemen in baseball; I’m talking the truly elite. They all have a trait that separates them:

Paul Goldschmidt is a 30-30 threat.

Joey Votto is an OBP machine.

Freddie Freeman refuses to strike out.

Miguel Cabrera is a hitting savant, no different than Mozart composing or Louis Armstrong playing the trumpet.

The next tier is a bizarre combination of one-trick mashers (Chris Davis, Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion) and guys who derive more value for their current franchise than they would for another (Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, Joe Mauer). Anthony Rizzo is heading squarely for the former one day, mark my words.

Well, here’s the top-10 first basemen by salary this season:

1. Cabrera, $28 million
2. Mauer, $23 million
3. Adrian Gonzalez, $22.4 million
4. Votto, $22 million
5. Davis, $21.1 million
6. Freeman, $20.9 million
7. Encarnacion, $14.7 million
8. Yulieski Gurriel, $14.4 million
9. Ryan Zimmerman, $14 million
10. Hosmer, $12.3 million

Votto, Cabrera and Freeman are paid like elite players (that Goldschmidt makes less than $10 million a year is practically a war crime); Mauer and Davis are valued by their teams but wouldn’t sniff that kind of money from anyone else.

Adrian Gonzalez got capital-P Paid ages ago in the “all mashing first basemen get $20 million a year, no exceptions” era.

And after that, there is a significant drop off in pay. First basemen are not making bank like they were even a decade ago. Outside the top-10 or so, first basemen are essentially interchangeable in modern baseball; hit decently, field your position and you can carve out a decade-long career.

In related news, Eric Hosmer is 13^th in fWAR among first basemen (3.1) since the start of 2015.

Ties to other organizations or areas of the country?

Hosmer is from Miami. That would be something to worry about, but that organization is such a dumpster fire that Derek Jeter and Jeb Bush had to form some kind of Wonder Twins Activation Power technique to rescue the organization from Satan Jeffrey Loria. I wouldn’t want any part of that, but Hosmer stands to make more in one paycheck than I will in my life so I’m in no position to judge.

If dealt, what could he fetch and who could be in the market?

The Red Sox, who have nothing of value to offer, would probably like to upgrade on Mitch Moreland. And… umm… the Angels or Mariners if they hang around in the race? AL contenders who could be put him in a first base/DH role? Good teams are all set at first base, in a round-about way making the best argument on Hosmer’s behalf. A good first baseman is a cornerstone piece for a contender.

(Aside: the above three teams may have the three worst farm systems in the AL. Unless the KC Royals are interested in taking a significant discount, I suspect a weak market. But the Yankees and that short porch and their stacked system… if they’re contending in July and the Chris Carter/Matt Holliday trio isn’t cutting it…)

What Might It Cost to Hang On To Him?

Hosmer (and Scott Boras, who we’ve learned is essentially the Voldemort of baseball—GM’s don’t even want to say his name) are gonna want Davis money this winter. Only a fool would give it to them. With GM’s wising up to the whole “I can hit for power and not be a total embarrassment in the field and THAT IS IT” model of ballplaying, I’m not sure it’s out there for him.

I point out this article and this one, but Hos is heating up, possibly (hopefully?) rendering that kind of talk moot.

How’s the new CBA factor into all this?

Hosmer is the most likely of the KC Royals impending free-agents to sign with a team under the luxury tax threshold (~$195 million or so), meaning the return on his qualifying offer is considerably lessened.

And… there’s a non-zero chance that Hosmer would just take a qualifying offer, right? If this season wasn’t spectacular, might he sign the tender and try it again next winter? I mean, that’s good one-year money and a chance at testing the market again in a year.