KC Royals and Potential Departures, Vol. 4: Mike Moustakas

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May 1, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) warms up before the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

Many tough choices are going to be made at Kauffman Stadium over the next few months. Mike Moustakas is the next one we’ll make here for the KC Royals.

Name: Mike Moustakas

Agent: Scott Boras

Career Numbers: .248/.303/.409 (.712 OPS), 88 home runs, 306 RBI, 144 doubles, 281 runs, 93 OPS+/93 wRC+/.161 ISO power, 10.0 WAR

Importance: Starting third baseman and middle of the order bat

History of Success

Mike Moustakas will never be what many expected him to be a decade ago.

This is not an indictment of Moose, who has become a beloved member of the KC Royals. How Moose is perceived really has little to do with him; being the second overall pick and a consensus top-20 prospect for the duration of your minor league career has a way of pigeon-holing a fella. It is not his fault he was picked ahead of Madison Bumgarner, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman and Jonathan Lucroy, among others.

As a 22-year old in 2011, Moustakas was promoted to the big club after a solid minor league career and was immediately tossed into the fire, playing 89 games with a modicum of success. He had his highs (47 straight games without an error, 34 doubles in 2012). He had his lows (led AL third basemen with 16 errors in 2013, was briefly demoted after a disastrous start to 2014). Nothing unexpected.

Unless you’re a No. 2 overall pick and consensus top-20 prospect. If Buster Posey didn’t have to struggle, why should Mike Moustakas?

Apr 30, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) connects for a single in the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium. Minnesota won 7-5. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

Sustainability

This is a mixed bag. From the 2014 postseason through the first part of 2016, Moose was a fringe top-10 third baseman. He hit five home runs in the 2014 postseason, was an All-Star in 2015 and wrapped that season with 3.6 WAR, 11^th-most among MLB third basemen.

Then he fractured his thumb and tore his ACL last season. Now he’s a 28-year old coming back from a torn ACL and banking on a huge contract. Consider me dubious.

Ties to other organizations or areas of the country?

Moose is a Los Angeles native. Aside from that, he’s spent his pro life in the Royals organization.

Apr 14, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third basemen Mike Moustakas (8) rounds the bases after hitting a two run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

If dealt, what could he fetch and who could be in the market?

In the interest of actually contending, the Mets and Astros could use upgrades to an actual third baseman. The Giants could stand an upgrade on Eduardo Nunez. If a logjam persists in the NL Central, the Brewers and Cardinals could be in the market. Even though Chase Headley is doing well at the moment, never count out the Yankees.

If you noticed that all six of those teams appear to be fringe contenders at best this season, you’re on to something. The real capital-C Contenders (Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Orioles, to name four, and the Rockies and Indians because I’m feeling particularly generous) feature No.’s 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 and 9 third basemen on the fWAR leaderboards from 2016.

What might it cost to hang on to him?

You probably noticed that Moose is a Scott Boras client. So is Eric Hosmer. And if you think that won’t factor into how teams negotiate with the KC Royals in trade talks and how the Royals negotiate with those players in free agency, you’re crazy.

Boras, widely considered by most front office people to be a mouse studying to become a rat, may be the reason t-shirts in ballparks cost $40 and beers are $9.50 but he’s agent to the stars because he gets people paid. Consider the following Boras clients:

Andruw Jones: two years, $36 million one year after he hit .222
Derek Lowe: four years, $60 million. Derek Lowe has never been good enough to earn $15 million a year.
Oliver Perez: three years, $36 million despite being abjectly terrible
Jacoby Ellsbury: seven years, $153 million and a swift decline thereafter.

Boras has taken special delight in torturing the KC Royals, albeit usually through draft slotting. He secured a $7.5 million signing bonus for Bubba Starling. He got Sean Manaea more than slot value in the 2013 draft even though Manaea needed hip surgery. He’s not taking a discount, for Moose or Hos.

How’s the new CBA factor into all this?

Somebody out there is going to pay a lot for Moustakas. If it’s not the KC Royals, the hope is that it’s an upper-market team (like, say, the Los Angeles Angels), which would give the Royals extra picks in the second and fifth round next June.

(Qualifying offer? LOL, son ain’t you hear anything I said about Scott Boras?)

Apr 15, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third basemen Mike Moustakas fields a ground ball against the Los Angeles Angels during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

So are you advocating giving mad money to a good-but-not-great third baseman who will be well into his 30s for most of the contract? Or letting him walk? Or flipping him before the deadline?

Let him walk. He’s going to get a sizable contract (Boras Effect!) and whatever return you could get at the deadline looks pretty negligible without a third baseman of some kind going down and creating a market. I’d rather have two young, team-controlled players of my own choosing than a couple of slightly-older, less-controlled, probably already-damaged prospects off a list.

Likelihood of being traded: 50 percent

Return on investment (if traded): Less than you’d expect. Treat it like a math problem.

Boras Client + Impending Free Agency x multiple injuries = 0 upper-level prospects, low chance of big-league success with two mid-level prospects, likely with injury history of their own.

Example: Houston sends RHP Brady Rogers (currently out after going Tommy John surgery) and OF Stephen Wrenn to the KC Royals for Moustakas.

Next: Potential Moves, Vol. 3: Esky

Future Contract: One day next winter, you’ll be blithely wandering around on Twitter or navigating ESPN.com and see a headline that says something like “Moustakas inks deal with (fiscally irresponsible MLB club) at $16 million per season.” I’ll be extremely surprised if that club is the KC Royals.

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KC Royals Potential Departures, Vol. 4: Mike Moustakas