KC Royals Potential Departures, Vol. 2: Lorenzo Cain

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Apr 18, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) dives for a ball in the eleventh inning of the game against the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium. The Giants won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

Many tough choices are going to be made at Kauffman Stadium over the next few months. Lorenzo Cain is the next one we’ll make here for the KC Royals.

Name: Lorenzo Cain

Agent: Joshua Kusnick

Career Numbers: .287/.339/.414 (.753 OPS), 43 home runs, 277 RBI, 107 steals, 128 doubles, 321 runs scored, 105 OPS+/105 wRC+/.127 ISO power, 23.4 WAR

Importance: Starting centerfielder and 3-hole hitter

History of Success

He’s been such an institution around these parts for so long that it’s difficult to remember that Lorenzo Cain’s journey to big-league success started with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Oh, but what a thrilling Sliding Doors theory we might have but for that fateful December day that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee for Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi; without that trade, there’s no chance the KC Royals have two pennants and a World Series this decade. And it’s hard to see Cain becoming a mild cult figure anywhere outside of Kansas City.

Cain’s success lies so much in advanced metrics—it’s easy to look at him and see an upper-.280s hitter with just a smidgen of pop and the inability to play a full season without missing three weeks. Since Cain’s only made one All-Star team and can’t seem to stay healthy, should the KC Royals brass bet on that to get better going forward?

The argument for is pretty easy: since Cain nailed down the everyday centerfield role in 2013, he’s been at least a 3.0 WAR player each year and certainly earned his shortlist MVP status during the 2015 campaign. He doesn’t strike out, he’s consistently on base and will make the occasional jaw-dropping play in centerfield that serves as a reminder that centerfielders don’t necessarily have the wheels come off in their mid-30s.

The argument against is also pretty easy: aside from hitting at a fairly successful clip for most of his career, Lorenzo Cain does nothing to stand out in a traditional sense. He’s Angel Pagan on his best day. And pretty much any extension is going to put him on the wrong side of 35 years old at its conclusion.

Apr 18, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) reacts after hitting a single in the tenth inning of the game against the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium. The Giants won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

Sustainability?

That’s the problem with trying to categorize local demigods—so much of LoCain’s value lies in his status as team leader, lightning rod, good luck charm and smiling, benevolent face. You can use any system you like to measure his offensive and defensive value; his overall value to the organization and community can’t be tidily measured with sabermetrics.

He’ll be all that and then some regardless of how many zeroes are in the contract, nor in what ZIP Code he ultimately calls home. He’s one of baseball’s great ambassadors. That’s not a thing you can quantify with money.

Intangibly, it’s hard to imagine Cain not maintaining his status as a leader in the organization. Is he still going to be able to hit .280 and play fringe Gold Glove defense? And do you want Dayton Moore to invest a significant amount of time and money into finding out?

Ties to other organizations or areas of the country?

Born in Valdosta, Georgia, raised and went to school in Florida, lives in Norman, Oklahoma in the offseason (wife is from Norman and he trains at OU). Braves, Rays and Rangers would be the three location biggest threats. Except for the fact that the Braves and Rays don’t spend and the Rangers have $18 million still wrapped up in Prince Fielder next season.

Apr 13, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals base runner Lorenzo Cain (6) dives head first into third base for a stolen base against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

If dealt, what could he fetch and who could be in the market?

Although the sunk cost of Jason Heyward’s Corpse in centerfield is a tough cross for the Chicago Cubs to bear (I’m sorry, that’s an awful pun), they could eat some of that money and toss Heyward and a prospect at the KC Royals. The Nats need a centerfielder now that Adam Eaton’s out. The Mets may not have designs on contending this season, but they definitely won’t without an outfield upgrade.

Others:

An outfield of LoCain, Ryan Braun and Eric Thames becomes EXTREMELY interesting if the Brewers decide to go for it this year.

Jerry DiPoto loves to wheel and deal; the Seattle Mariners could always pair Cain and Jarrod Dyson in the league’s fastest outfield.

The Dodgers because money, and also because the Joc Pederson/Andrew Toles/Kike Hernandez three-headed monster isn’t working out.

What might it cost to hang on to him?

Somewhere between Josh Reddick Money (four years, $52 million) and Dexter Fowler Money (five years, $82.5 million), you’ll find Lorenzo Cain Money.

How’s the new CBA factor into all this?

As a three-win outfielder, Lorenzo Cain is unlikely to take a qualifying offer, meaning the KC Royals would be getting picks if he departed. And as a small-market franchise, the Royals would probably be okay with picking up a two and a five (if he signed with an over-tax team) or a three (under the $195 million threshold) if option two was giving an obscene contract to a 31-year old centerfielder.

Mar 19, 2017; Mesa, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) stumbles after avoiding a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the third inning at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

So are you advocating committing long-term years and grande dollars to a 31-year old centerfielder? Or letting him walk? Or flipping him before the deadline?

Keep him. Of the potential free agents, Cain has always made the most sense to retain. He would bridge the gap to the next generation of KC Royals. Unless one of the aforementioned potential suitors really elects to go all-in, Cain should retire a Royal.

Likelihood of being traded: 40 percent

Return on Investment (if traded): 2-3 prospects, one significant value, or one ready-to-play piece and one mid-level prospect.

Example One: Washington Nationals deal SS Carter Kieboom (No. 3 according to MLB Pipeline), C Spencer Kieboom (No. 30) and LHP Braulio Lara for Cain.

Example Two: LA Dodgers trade LHP Alex Wood and RHP Trevor Oaks for Cain.

Next: Vol. 1: Vargy

Future Contract: Five years, $70 million

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