KC Royals Potential Departures, Vol. 1: Jason Vargas
By Colby Wilson
So are you advocating hanging on to a 34-year old lefty who has never put together back-to-back seasons without a huge injury or an ERA north of 4.00? Or letting him walk? Or attempting to flip him?
With the season quickly going down in flames, if the KC Royals were smart they’d flip him right now. But the problem with that is that early-season trades rarely offer the same type of value as those closer to the deadline—as teams get more desperate to make a move and solidify their postseason chances, Double-A prospect offers turn into multiple top-20 prospect offers and the demand for sellers to take on bad contracts as the cost of doing business begins to dwindle.
I’m afraid the other shoe is going to drop for Vargas, but what I’m even more afraid of is that the KC Royals will be the ones left holding the bag when it does. As good as he’s been, committing mid-rotation money to Jason Freaking Vargas would seem absolutely insane if not for his torrid start.
Likelihood of being traded: 65 percent
Return on Investment: 2-3 prospects, one of significant value. Example via the Baltimore Orioles: Vargy for Tanner Scott (No. 10 prospect via Baseball America), Double-A infielder Jeff Kemp and A-Advanced LHP Reid Love
Future Contract: He takes a one-year prove-it deal via qualifying offer.