KC Royals Potential Departures, Vol. 1: Jason Vargas

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Mar 27, 2017; Mesa, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jason Vargas (51) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Oakland Athletics at HoHoKam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /

Many tough choices are going to be made at Kauffman Stadium over the next few months. Jason Vargas is the first one we’ll make here for the KC Royals.

Player: Jason Vargas

Agent: CAA Sports (Nez Balelo)

Career Numbers: 70-71, 4.12 ERA, 220 games (200 starts), 833 strikeouts (6.0 K/9), 359 walks (2.32 K/BB), 4.26 FIP/95 ERA+/1.300 WHIP

Importance: No. 4 starter

History of Success

So this part is sort of a mixed bag.

When Vargas first popped on the radar, it was as an upper-tier prospect for the Miami (then Florida) Marlins. He made 13 starts in 2005, finishing eighth in what may be the worst NL rookie class ever (Willy Taveras and Jeff Francoeur finished second and third, respectively), but rode the Miami-to-Albuquerque shuttle for most of 2006 and was dealt that offseason to the Mets.

(Rare is the time teams trade someone they think could become valuable to a division rival. Warrants mentioning.)

After working his way to New York, Vargas made two starts before his body self-destructed; he had a bone spur removed from his elbow that October and another the following March to repair a torn labrum. Having seen enough, the Mets dealt Vargas to the Mariners, where he finally enjoyed a full-season breakout in 2010—9-12, 3.78 ERA, 2.15 K/BB. He was a full-fledged rotational piece for three seasons in Seattle before being shipped to Anaheim in 2013 for Kendrys Morales.

He did one season for LA’s second-favorite baseball team before departing for America’s Heartland.

Apr 13, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jason Vargas (51) delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Sustainability?

It probably goes without saying that it’s unlikely for a 34-year old with a long and distinguished history of injury problems to have suddenly found the Fountain of Youth and grown a bionic arm. I’m not saying it can’t happen. But I am saying I wouldn’t invest a significant amount of money or assets with the idea that he’s doing anything other than keeping a seat warm for the next guy.

I’m certain there’s some kind of precedent for this in league history—Jamie Moyer comes to mind—but how many Jamie Moyer’s come along over the course of baseball history?

Since 2014, Vargas has made 16 starts. In July 2015, he tore his UCL, missing the rest of 2015 and most of 2016 in recovery. He has movement in his pitches, but he doesn’t locate like someone of Moyer’s ilk and that spiffy 14:1 K/BB ratio in 2017 seems pretty unsustainable.

Having said that, his changeup is approaching otherworldly.

Most valuable pitches by @fangraphs run value
Fastball- Sale
Slider- Ervin Santana & Chris Archer
Curveball- Kluber
Changeup- Jason Vargas
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) May 1, 2017

Finding yourself on a list that includes Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer can’t be overlooked. That’s elite company.

Ties to other organizations or areas of the country?

Vargas is from Apple Valley, California which puts him not far from the Los Angeles teams, San Diego or Phoenix. However, he’s already done a brief tour of duty with the Angels and elected to sign with Kansas City. Also he bounced around in college (LSU to Cypress to Long Beach State), so situation seems more of a factor than location.

(One other factor that we’d be stupid not to recognize: money. As my friend JJ always likes to say, “Show me the green and I’ll be on the scene!”)

Mar 11, 2017; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Cam Gallagher (36) talks with Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jason Vargas (51) during the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Goodyear Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

If dealt, what could he fetch and who could be in the market?

A month into the season, very few teams are willing to go ahead and punt; even the Cincinnati Reds are just three games out at this point. The usual suspects will no doubt line up—Baltimore, Seattle, Colorado—as well as the Red Sox or Dodgers or Giants if an arm went down at the inopportune time.

As for what… well, we’ll get to that later. There’s a bit of a spectrum.

What might it cost to hang on to him?

If I really, truly thought Vargas was the guy he’s been through four starts in 2017, I’d hand out “3 years, $36 million” and never really worry about it again.

If I didn’t (and I don’t), I’d probably do exactly what the Phillies did for Jeremy Hellickson last year; make a qualifying offer and dare him to take the short-term payday over the long-term security, which leads to…

How’s the new CBA factor in to all of this?

Teams can’t make a qualifying offer to a player who has already received one, so that would, at best, be kicking the can down the road for a season. And if Vargas got the long-term deal he sought, the KC Royals would get either a third-round pick in the next draft (if Vargy signed with a team that hadn’t gone over the $195 million luxury tax threshold) or a second and fifth rounder if one of the already obscenely-wealthy teams gave him a contract.

Mar 11, 2017; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jason Vargas (51) pitches against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Goodyear Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

So are you advocating hanging on to a 34-year old lefty who has never put together back-to-back seasons without a huge injury or an ERA north of 4.00? Or letting him walk? Or attempting to flip him?

With the season quickly going down in flames, if the KC Royals were smart they’d flip him right now. But the problem with that is that early-season trades rarely offer the same type of value as those closer to the deadline—as teams get more desperate to make a move and solidify their postseason chances, Double-A prospect offers turn into multiple top-20 prospect offers and the demand for sellers to take on bad contracts as the cost of doing business begins to dwindle.

I’m afraid the other shoe is going to drop for Vargas, but what I’m even more afraid of is that the KC Royals will be the ones left holding the bag when it does. As good as he’s been, committing mid-rotation money to Jason Freaking Vargas would seem absolutely insane if not for his torrid start.

Likelihood of being traded: 65 percent

Return on Investment: 2-3 prospects, one of significant value. Example via the Baltimore Orioles: Vargy for Tanner Scott (No. 10 prospect via Baseball America), Double-A infielder Jeff Kemp and A-Advanced LHP Reid Love

Next: The Nats and LoCain?

Future Contract: He takes a one-year prove-it deal via qualifying offer.

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