Kansas City Royals Enter Spring Training As Underdogs

<img class="size-full wp-image-70998" src="https://kingsofkauffman.com/wp-content/uploads/usat-images/2016/04/9889898-mlb-kansas-city-royals-media-day.jpeg" alt="Feb 20, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals players

(35) and

(39) pose for a photo during spring training photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports” width=”5184″ height=”3456″ /> Feb 20, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals players Eric Hosmer (35) and Jason Hammel (39) pose for a photo during spring training photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals once again are a team few people believe will succeed, despite winning back-to-back American League pennants in 2014-15.

One  year ago, the KC Royals were defending World Champions. While PECOTA, and most other publicly available projection systems predicted a below .500 finish, pundits around the league considered those predictions something of a joke. Generally, the Royals were expected to contend. Most considered the Chicago Cubs the World Series favorite, but Kansas City was at least viewed as a threat.

Now, pretty much the only people who believe in the Royals reside in the Kansas City area—or at least within their extended regional market. Manager Ned Yost told the Kansas City Star that he has a good team. Most analysts around major-league baseball don’t agree.

PECOTA projects 71 wins for the Kansas City Royals, which is the second lowest win expectation in major-league baseball. Fangraphs.com is a little more hopeful, but still only predicts 75 victories. FanSided partner 120 Sports thinks 80 wins is about right. The general consensus is the KC Royals are less talented than last year’s club.

SI.com summed up Kansas City’s off-season the following way:

The Royals have done a nice job given the difficult circumstances, but they are undoubtedly a worse team this spring than last. The rotation took a huge hit, and the bullpen—the strength of the team when it won the AL pennant in 2014 and ’15 and the World Series in the latter year—has lost much of the depth and talent that made it so formidable.  The Royals will replace Morales in the aggregate, but Moss and Soler are power-first guys, not classic high-on-base batters, which is what the team could use after finishing next-to-last in the AL last year in OBP. The core of their championship run is there for one more season, before standbys like first baseman Eric Hosmer, shortstop Alcides Escobar and centerfielder Lorenzo Cain reach free agency. But unless one of their acquisitions has a career-year, it will be hard for Kansas City to get back to the postseason.

If you want the view of those who gamble, Vegasinsider.com lists the KC Royals as 40-1 to win the 2017 World Series. That’s right in the middle of the major-league pack along with the Baltimore Orioles. In many ways such a rating isn’t surprising. As CBSSports.com’s Matt Snyder put it in his power rankings, the Royals could either win it all or completely collapse. 

I think that’s a fair assessment. If the KC Royals fall out of contention by the trading deadline, Dayton Moore will probably sell off a number of players in the final years of their contract. Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Alcides Escobar could all find themselves on the trading block to jump start a rebuild.

On the other hand, if the Kansas City Royals can sneak into the playoffs, this is a team filled with players who know they can win in the post-season.

<img class="size-full wp-image-70997" src="https://kingsofkauffman.com/wp-content/uploads/usat-images/2016/04/9730073-mlb-winter-meetings.jpeg" alt="Dec 7, 2016; National Harbor, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore speaks with the media after announcing a trade of relief pitcher

for outfielder

(both not pictured) on day three of the 2016 Baseball Winter Meetings at Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports” width=”2742″ height=”1828″ /> Dec 7, 2016; National Harbor, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore speaks with the media after announcing a trade of relief pitcher Wade Davis for outfielder Jorge Soler (both not pictured) on day three of the 2016 Baseball Winter Meetings at Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Dayton Moore Built A Roster With Depth

The big thing that the 2017 Royals have going for them is depth. Dayton Moore is well aware his core is aging and acquired plenty of veteran backups at every position. There are four players jousting for the starting second base job. While Raul Mondesi will likely head to AAA Omaha to play full time if he fails to win the starting gig, Whit Merrifield, Christian Colon, and Cheslor Cuthbert can also fill  in as infield backups.

A horde of players can man outfield spots. Along with fourth outfielder Paulo Orlando and the speedy Billy Burns who will spell Cain in center field, Brandon Moss can play in the corners as well as Whit Merrifield. Moss and AAA veteran Peter O’Brien can also play first base. While the KC Royals probably can’t withstand long-term injuries to core players like Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, catcher Salvdor Perez, and Alex Gordon, they have ample seasoned reserves to fill in for a hurting veteran.

More from KC Royals News

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The starting rotation also sports good depth despite only middling overall quality. Behind the top four of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, and Jason Vargas, Ned Yost has experienced starters in Chris Young, Travis Wood, and Nathan Karns. Rookie relief find Matt Strahm and perennially injured prospect Kyle Zimmer could also figure into the rotation mix with strong spring showings.

To me, the biggest question mark is the bullpen. Right now, it’s hard to project how it will shake out. Kelvin Herrera is set as the new closer with hopes that Joakim Soria can overcome a poor 2016 to handle a set-up role. Beyond those two, the rest of the pen is up in the air. The final shape will depend on who wins the no. 5 rotation role. Presumably, the other four candidates will contest for bullpen spots.

Dayton Moore has also brought in a horde of veteran reclamation projects in Mike Minor, Brandon League, Bobby Parnell, Al Alburquerque, Jonathan Sanchez, Chris Withrow, and Seth Maness. Behind them sit minor league hopefuls like top prospect Josh Staumont whose fastball routinely touches 100 mph, Miguel Almonte, and big armed AAA closer Andrew Edwards.