KC Royals: Will Royals Part Ways With Edinson Volquez?

The KC Royals could let Edinson Volquez leave when his contract expires at the end of the 2016 season. The decision will depend on how far general manager Dayton Moore can push the payroll.

Like many Kansas City Royals free-agent signings, Edinson Volquez has a mutual option tacked on to the end of his contract. Kansas City could try to extend Volquez’s deal for $10 million for one more year. If either party declines their option, the KC Royals will have to pay a $3 million buyout.

Volquez’s numbers don’t look very good this season. He’s 10-11 with a 5.40 ERA in 175.0 innings pitched. According to Baseball-reference, Volquez has been worth -1.0 bWAR—which is less than replacement level. If the team believes that measure is an accurate assessment of what they can expect from him going forward, Volquez isn’t worth $10 million.

However, if the Kansas City Royals instead put more weight on his adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), he’s very much worth a $10 million extension. If we eliminate things that pitchers cannot control and focus on outcomes such as walks, strikeouts, and home runs, then Fangraphs.com estimates Volquez should have an ERA around 4.45.

By that metric, Volquez has been worth 1.6 fWAR (Fangraphs.com Wins Above Replacement) this season. Since free agent prices ran close to $8 million per projected WAR last winter, Volquez would be a bargain at $10 million.

All of this suggests that Volquez might accept the $10 million mutual option. While he would like a bigger contract, he might believe that he’s incapable of capturing value coming off a poor statistical season. The problem  is the free agent pitching market figures to be very thin this winter. Even the soon-to-be 33-year-old Volquez could draw a multi-year offer despite his high ERA.

A team that buys into the sabermetric Fielding Independent Pitching model could discount Volquez’s 2016 results and offer him a multi-year deal. Volquez might then take it because it could be his last chance for a large contract.

In A Perfect World

Ideally, the KC Royals would bring back Edinson Volquez on a one year deal in 2017. At $4.0 million, Mike Minor is getting paid like a long-reliever/spot starter. After watching Kris Medlen and Chris Young implode at the bottom of the rotation earlier this season, the last thing Dayton Moore wants is to see a repeat. Having six veteran starters under contract is a good thing.

Kansas City Royals

Heck, Jason Vargas is coming back from Tommy John surgery. While he will be 21 months removed from the knife next April, who knows how many innings he can eat?

With those six under contract, you’d force Matt Strahm and Josh Staumont to earn their way into the rotation. Moore could then be patient with Kyle Zimmer, with little temptation to push his workload if he indeed blossoms next spring.

The problem is just how far can Dayton Moore push his budget? The KC Royals started 2016 with a franchise record $131 million payroll. They have $99 million committed to 2017 according to Cot’s contracts. However, Eric Hosmer will hit his last year of arbitration. Danny Duffy ($4.2 million in 2016) and Kelvin Herrera (2.5 million in 2016) should command significant raises in their third arbitration years.

Call it $23 million for those three. The Kansas City Royals are then looking at $122 million before picking up Wade Davis‘ $10 million option and Alcides Escobar‘s $6.5 million option. That puts you at $138 million with only 14 players. Add in league minimum deals for 3B Cheslor Cuthbert, OF Hunter Dozier, OF Paulo Orlando, RP Brian Flynn, P Matt Strahm, INF Christian Colon, and 2B Whit Merrifield. The KC Royals are now at $142.5 million for 21 players.

Already, we’re looking at close to $147 million for a full roster, and that’s without re-signing Volquez, Morales, or Holland.

Next: KC Royals Have A Second Wave Of Prospects Coming

In the end, it’s going to come down to how far owner David Glass is willing to go.