KC Royals: 5 Reasons Danny Duffy Can Win AL Cy Young

KC Royals pitcher Danny Duffy hasn’t just become a solid starting pitcher in his age 27 season. He’s also a threat to win the 2016 Cy Young award as the best pitcher in the American League.

Even though Danny Duffy didn’t join the Kansas City Royals rotation until late May, and only stretched his arm out enough to throw 100 pitches in a game until June 22, he’s put himself into the Cy Young picture. After throwing his first career complete game in the KC Royals 2-1 win over the Chicago White Sox on Thursday night, Danny Duffy has taken over as the American League leader in starter ERA at 2.82.

The rest of his numbers are similarly outstanding. Duffy is 9-1 in his 16 starts for the Kansas City Royals this season, with a 10.0 K/9 in 124.1 innings pitched. Duffy ranks eighth among AL pitchers with 3.7 bWAR (Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement) despite spending most of the first two months of 2016 pitching out of the KC Royals bullpen.

Though Duffy has put himself in the Cy Young award race, he’s not the front-runner. If I were handicapping the contest, I’d consider the favorites to be:

1. Carlos Quintana, Chicago:    9-8, 2.85 ERA, 7.89 K/9, 4.5 bWAR
2. Cole Hamels, Texas:            12-3, 2.89 ERA, 8.86 K/9, 4.4 bWAR
3. J.A. Happ, Toronto:               16-3, 2.96 ERA, 7.80 K/9, 3.4 bWAR
4. Corey Kluber, Cleveland:    12-8, 3.21 ERA, 8.94 K/9, 4.0 bWAR
5. Michael Fulmer, Detroit:      9-3, 2.43 ERA, 7.62 K/9, 4.4 bWAR

The above list, of course, reflects my own preferences. For example, for purposes of the Cy Young award, I favor Baseball-Reference WAR based on actual results over Fangraphs.com’s WAR, which is based on adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching (an estimated stat). My reasoning is that the Cy Young should go to the pitcher that actually dominated, not the guy that SHOULD have dominated.

Of course, you can always argue that xFIP is a better indicator of true talent level, and also normalizes for park factors and opponent quality. In that case, names like Chris Sale (14-5, 3.16 ERA), Aaron Sanchez (11-2, 2.85 ERA), and Masahiro Tanaka (8-4, 3.32 ERA) join the list.

Here are my five reasons why Danny Duffy could end up surpassing all of the above players and walk away with the award this winter:

Next: Reason No. 5

Duffy Has Dominated Since Late June

Why am I looking at late June when it comes to Duffy? It’s because that’s when KC Royals manager Ned Yost first took off the training wheels and allowed him to take a pitch count over 100.

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Danny Duffy’s numbers become even more impressive after building up his arm. In the 10 starts since June 22, Duffy is 7-0, with a 2.56 ERA in 70.1 innings pitched. His 9.59 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 remain impressive, and the Kansas City Royals are 9-1 in those 10 starts.

The number that jumps out at me is that Duffy has been averaging a little over seven innings per start. That’s exactly what makes Duffy an ace; he pretty much has been dominating games since taking full turns in the rotation.

Now, Duffy has received 4.7 runs per game from an anemic KC Royals offense that averages only 3.82 runs per game over the entire season. Some might argue that Danny Duffy’s 9-1 record involves quite a bit of luck. However, perhaps the boost in run production is because the Kansas City Royals hitters are more confident with the pitcher that has become their ace on the mound.

I know that isn’t exactly an objective measure. Somewhere, Bill James is throwing up because there are baseball bloggers who still make such arguments. I don’t care. When you compare the difference between Duffy and the rest of Kansas City’s gopher ball starting pitching, I can see how hitters would be a lot more focused with Duff-man on the mound.

I don’t think Danny Duffy’s better run support is an accident. Sue me.

Next: Reason No. 4

Danny Duffy Is Getting Stronger

Danny Duffy’s first full month in the KC Royals rotation was June. Though he was operating with a 75-80 pitch limit for the first three weeks of the month, for our purposes in this article we’ll count him as a rotation member.

Duffy adopted a new approach as a starting pitcher after going to the bullpen at the end of 2015 and early this season.

Basically, Duffy stopped nibbling. He throws his fourseam fastball about 2 mph faster than in 2014, but he can tolerate the increased velocity because he’s using more mid-80’s change-ups. He’s also junked his curveball and focused on his slider as his only breaking pitch. Furthermore, Duffy is throwing 10% more sinkers in 2016 .

Looking at his month to month splits, we see a clear progression:

                             ERA              WHIP             K/W ratio         IP/start    

June                    3.25              1.056                5.00                    6.0

July                      3.18              1.088                5.17                   6.8

August                1.14               0.676               9.33                   7.8

Of course, his August numbers have come in only three starts so we expect to see a bit of regression. This month’s results are skewed by his 8.0 inning, one-hit start on August 1 that saw Duffy set a Kansas City Royals record for strikeouts in a game at 16.

Even with that caveat, Duffy’s month to month improvement has been impressive. Often when a player experiences a breakthrough, his performance degrades because opponents adjust. With Danny Duffy, he’s been getting better as he’s grown accustomed to working through games with his new pitch mix.

Pitching performance typically improves as starters build up their arms the first two months. They peak in mid-season, but often tail off as fatigue sets in at the end of the year. One advantage that Danny Duffy has down the stretch is that he’s only now rounding into mid-season form after beginning the year in the KC Royals bullpen.

Next: Reason No. 3

Danny Duffy Is Lasting Deep Into Games

I’ve touched on this point in both of the previous slides. However, this issue needs some expansion. One of the big criterion for a starting pitcher to win a Cy Young award is eating enough innings to be considered a rotation “horse”. Typically the benchmark is 200 innings pitched.

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There’s also the whole “qualified” pitcher threshold. In order for the league to recognize a starting pitcher’s standing in various statistical categories, he needs to throw enough innings for his ranking to count. Danny Duffy is right at the edge of “qualifying” as a starter at this point of the season with 124.1 innings pitched.

A pitcher needs to throw at least one inning per game played to qualify for the ERA title. With 48 games left in the season, Duffy can expect to make another nine starts. Thus, he should pass the “qualifying starter” hurdle to make his rate stats count for purposes of winning statistical titles. It’s pretty much impossible for a “starting pitcher” to win Cy Young votes unless he can qualify.

However, Danny Duffy is unlikely to pass the 200 inning barrier. Even averaging 7.0 innings per start in his final nine turns would give Duffy only 63 more innings pitched for a total of 187.1.  If the KC Royals can squeeze in 10 more Duffy starts by skipping the no. 5 spot due to off days, even averaging 7.0 innings per start will only take him to 194.1 IP.

A major factor here is the collapse of the Kansas City Royals formerly dominant-bullpen. With the HDH trio all but dead, manager Ned Yost will be more likely to ask Duffy to take him through the late innings given his less-than-certain relief staff.

Thus, Duffy’s ability to last deep into games is what might make or break his Cy Young run.

Next: Reason No. 2

Danny Duffy Leads AL Starters In Multiple Statistical Categories

As of August 12, Danny Duffy leads all qualified AL starters with a 2.82 ERA. He’s also no. 1 in adjusted ERA (+157, 57% better than a league average pitcher), WHIP (1.005), and K/W ratio (5.52).

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That’s a pretty impressive set of statistical rankings. WHIP is Walks and Hits Per Inning Pitched. The idea behind measuring this stat is that runs scored should be a function how many base-runners a pitcher allows. While good (or bad) luck in opponent hit sequencing can lead to ERA distortions, the WHIP should tell how well a pitcher is preventing scoring opportunities.

The strikeouts per walk (K/W) ratio is a key indicator that tells you about positive versus negative outcomes completely under a pitcher’s control. Duffy whiffs more than 5.5 batters for every one he walks. Strikeouts are more valuable than other outs in that they don’t depend on fielders to make a play and can only end up with a negative outcome for the offense. Meanwhile, walks are particularly damaging because they soak up pitches and extend innings.

Adjusted ERA is simply ERA normalized for opponent quality and park factors. Duffy’s lead in this metric shows that he’s doing better at run prevention than any qualified starter in the American League.

Leading in one category is great. But leading the league in multiple key categories shows that Danny Duffy’s results aren’t a fluke. He’s dominating hitters and standing out among his peers. That’s exactly the kind of thing that Cy Young voters are looking for.

Statistical dominance is particularly important for Danny Duffy because he’s not a big name player. Prior to this season, he was an anonymous, bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher that was largely unknown outside fantasy baseball players and KC Royals fans. To win the award ahead of recognized aces like Chris Sale, Cole Hamels, and Corey Kluber, he needs to stand out. If your name is on top of multiple pitching categories, you’re hard to miss.

Next: Reason No. 1