KC Royals Rumors: Evaluating The Pitching Trade Targets

KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore is determined to help his club at the trade deadline, unless the Royals completely collapse before August 1. Here is a look at the top trade targets to help the starting rotation.

Moore has already said he’s determined to help out his team, according to MLB network insider Ken Rosenthal. The most obvious need for the Kansas City Royals is another reliable starting pitcher. The no. 5 spot in the rotation has been a disaster area all season, with Chris Young, Dillon Gee, and Brian Flynn all getting chances to seize the role.

So far, the starting pitchers have accumulated an aggregate 5.01 ERA, which is nothing short of awful. With the KC Royals bullpen not as reliable in past seasons due to their inability to find a third dominant reliever, the bullpen can’t make up for the poor starting pitching. These pitching shortcomings are one of the big reasons that the Kansas City Royals stand a mediocre 47-47 and 9.0 games behind the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central.

The situation is also getting worse. The KC Royals are a miserable 5-11 in the month of July. They have just lost two straight series to division rivals Detroit and Cleveland to begin the second half. The Kansas City Royals look weaker instead of stronger as the stretch run approaches.

Occasionally, we see some late-game magic from the KC Royals that reminds us of their playoff heroics from last October. But, the weight of injuries and disappointing performances from the starting rotation have been too much to overcome so far. Earlier in the season, the Kansas City Royals held back mediocrity by intermittently catching fire.

In the month of July, their will looks burnt out.

Something needs to change, or the KC Royals won’t return to the playoffs in the 2016 season. That result would be unfortunate, since the Kansas City Royals roster is filled with players who know how to win big games. If Dayton Moore can coax a final rush from his tired warhorses, they just might win the darn thing if they can just stay in the race as the finish line comes into sight.

The following pitchers are the most likely pieces available to help the KC Royals at the trade deadline:

Next: The 31-Year-Old Rookie

Junior Guerra

Junior Guerra is a 31-year-old rookie that has enjoyed a 13-game run as a dominant starting pitcher. He’s sporting a 6-2 record, with a 3.06 ERA in 88.1 innings pitched with a 7.9 K/9. His 4.05 xFIP (Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching, a metric designed to strip away park effects, opponent quality, and team defense) suggests he’s been catching some luck early in his career.

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However, even stripping away external factors, Guerra’s 4.05 ERA would be a big improvement over the KC Royals no. 5 position, which saw Chris Young compile a 6.90 ERA and surrender home runs like a batting practice pitcher.

In fact, he’s only allowed nine home runs in 88.1 innings pitched, which is a lot better than most of the pitchers on the Kansas City Royals staff (a .92 HR/9 rate). That Guerra plays half his games in a bandbox like Miller Park in Milwaukee suggests he’ll surrender even fewer home runs in spacious Kauffman Stadium.

Guerra is a four pitch pitcher who throws a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, and split fingered fastball. His four-seamer sits around 94 mph, and his out pitch is the split fingered fastball.

At the very least, Guerra could provide a break from the gopher balls that have bedeviled the KC Royals all season.

The Brewers might consider trading him as a sell-high move, given his rather humble prospect pedigree. The primary benefit for the Kansas City Royals is that Guerra should be both cheap in prospects and in salary since he makes rookie league minimum, while promising to be a substantial improvement over their current options at the bottom of their rotation.

Landing Guerra might not provide a jolt of confidence to the clubhouse, but could be a good move that pays dividends over both the short and long term. The KC Royals might be able to get him for a pair of pitchers with better perceived futures like Alec Mills and an upside play a long way from the major leagues like Nolan Watson.

Next: A Solid No. 5 Option

Jeremy Hellickson

The 29-year-old Hellickson is actually enjoying a solid season with the Phillies, with a 7-7, 3.84 ERA, and 8.0 K/9 stat line in 20 starts. He’s eaten 119.2 innings and is only walking 2.0 per nine innings. While he has surrendered 19 home runs, he’s a solid bottom of the rotation option.

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Since Hellickson is a seven year veteran, he’s unlikely to collapse down the stretch.

Hellickson is also relatively inexpensive, signed to a $4.2 million contract this season. He’s eligible for free-agency in 2017, so he would be a pure rental. Yet, the prospect price for Hellickson shouldn’t be outrageous. He’s not a guy that the Phillies would want to extend a qualifying offer for fear he would take it. Thus an acquiring team wouldn’t have to exceed the value of a  compensation draft pick.

Even so, given the demand for starting pitching at the trade deadline, the price could be higher than a guy like Hellickson would normally command. While his current 3.84 ERA looks pretty good, his 4.22 FIP (Fielding Independent PItching) suggests he’s more of a no. 5 pitcher rather than a mid-rotation guy.

Hellickson would help the Kansas CIty Royals, but he’d probably be a guy riding the bench come playoff time.

Next: Tampa Bay Option No. 1

Chris Archer

Twenty-seven year old Chris Archer made the All-Star team in 2015 for his fine 12-13, 3.23 ERA, 10.7 K/9 season in 2015, but has crashed to 5-13, 4.60 ERA, 10.7 K/9 ERA in 2016.

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Essentially, trading for Chris Archer would be to bet that he will improve over the latter half of 2016. The problem is, the Rays aren’t likely to deal him cheap. Archer is signed though the 2019 season to a very reasonable  three-year, $19 million deal after the 2016  season. He’s making a mere $2.9 million this year, and his contract also included two team options at $9 and $11 million in 2020 and 2021.

There’s no way the Tampa Bay Rays are going to give him up cheap when they control him for five more seasons for a total of $39 million. Archer would only need to produce 1.0 WAR per season to justify that contract at the current $8 million per WAR open market rate. Unless he completely collapses, he’s likely to provide excess value over the next five years.

Archer has also pitched better of late, allowing a 3.96 ERA in his last four starts in July. His 10.7 K/9 is the same as his All-Star season in 2015, but his walk rate has zoomed to 3.7 BB/9 up from 2.8 BB/9 in 2015 and his HR/9 has almost doubled to 1.5 up from 0.8 HR/9 in 2015.

Landing Archer would take a substantial package. However, he would be a multi-year solution and could revert to his top-of-the-rotation form. I doubt the KC Royals have the prospects to win a Chris Archer sweepstakes, but Dayton Moore has surprised us before.

I just wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for such a trade to take place. Archer would be nice, and could stabilize the Kansas City Royals rotation for years to come, but will just cost too much in prospects.

Next: Tampa Bay Option No. 2

Matt Moore

Twenty-seven year old Matt Moore is another Tampa Bay Rays pitcher who has disappointed this season. Moore, however, should come cheaper than Chris Archer due to the fact that he’s suffered a ulnar collateral ligament injury and has undergone Tommy John surgery on his elbow.

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Thus, Moore carries more injury risk going forward.

However, Moore’s contract only includes three more years of team control after this season ($5 million), not five like Archer. Those options come in at $7 million in 2017, $9 million in 2018, and $10 million in 2019.

Moore has also been better than Archer this season, with a 6-7, 4.31 ERA season. However, he doesn’t miss as many bats as Archer with a 7.6 K/9, but he’s not walking as many batters (2.6 BB/9). The two pitchers are giving up a similar 1.5 HR/9.

Matt Moore is also a former All-Star, earning the nod in 2013 for his 17-4, 3.29 ERA season before tearing his UCL in 2014. Thus, Moore has top-of-the rotation upside like Archer, but carries more injury risk. His prospect price should be less expensive than Archer, but he’s still not going to come cheap.

Again, the Tampa Bay Rays don’t HAVE to sell. Which means they can afford to demand a high price for their starting pitching options. Tampa is in a sell-high position and they’re going to exploit it for all it’s worth. Still, recent reports indicate the KC Royals have been scouting the Tampa Bay starters pretty heavily.

Clearly, Dayton Moore is interested and probably has already had some discussions with Tampa’s front office. A deal could happen at any time, if the Kansas City Royals decide to pay the price.

Next: Tampa Bay Option No. 3

Andrew Cashner

Rumors indicate that San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller is determined to deal starter Andrew Cashner before the trade deadline. Even Cashner himself believes he’s on the move.  

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Preller has already traded off lefty Drew Pomeranz and veteran James Shields. He’s in full rebuild mode and is more concerned with accumulating prospects than with his team’s current performance on the field. Thus, all of his marketable assets are on the table. Given the high price for starting pitching at the trading deadline, I’d be shocked if Cashner doesn’t change uniforms.

The 29-year-old Cashner is in the final year of his contract ($7.15 million), and hasn’t enjoyed a good season (4-7, 4.79 ERA in 73.1 IP with a 7.5 K/9). However, Cashner was very good in 2013-14, compiling a 2.87 ERA in 45 starts for the Padres.

Cashner hasn’t been quite the same since, with a 4.34 ERA in 184.2 innings in 2015, and his poor start to the 2016 season. Yet, obtaining Cashner is something of a bet on his stuff, which is much better than his results. Cashner’s fastball still sits comfortably at 95 mph, and he can dial it up into the 97 mph range.

Cashner isn’t a big strikeout guy, with a 7.5 K/9. However, in his outstanding 2013-14 run, he struck out even fewer hitters (6.7 K/9). Instead, he relied on his power sinker to get guys to hit the ball on the ground.

To be honest, Cashner’s price would be less than pretty much every pitcher on this list given A.J. Preller’s motivation to sell and Cashner’s sub-par performance the last two seasons. Yet, he’s an upside play due to his stuff, and the Padres poor defense. The hope is that Cashner could get inspired by playing for a contender rather than the moribund Padres.

The problem is, the rumor mill hasn’t indicated that the KC Royals are scouting the Padres or that they’re talking with the Padres. While the two teams have concluded a deal, (Preller’s first deal as Padres GM involved flipping Rey Fuentes to the Kansas City Royals for Kyle Bartsch), nothing seems to be on the burner now.

Next: The Late Career Miracle

Rich Hill

Thirty-six year old Rich Hill pitched like an ace this season, compiling a 9-3, 2.25 ERA, 10.7 K/9 stat line in 14 starts for the Oakland A’s this season. The problem has been that he’s struggled with injuries for much of the last month, including a pulled groin and a broken blister on his pitching hand.

While neither injury seems significant, they have limited his innings to 76.0 so far in 2016.

That’s a problem since Hill has been something of a late-career wunderkind. He impressed in four starts in 2015 after changing his motion from a three-quarters to overhand arm slot. That adjustment has resulted in his strikeout rate zooming to over 10.0 K/9 ever since.

Before, Hill was nothing more than a journeyman pitcher with a career 4.23 ERA in 88 career starts spread out over 12 major-league seasons. Rich Hill did eat 195.0 innings at age 27, but that came in 2007 with the Chicago Cubs. He hasn’t logged more than 68 innings before his breakout this season.

Hill’s recent injury struggles now has to make the KC Royals wonder if he’s nothing more than deadline deal fool’s gold.

However, his recent struggles might also bring Rich Hill down into the Kansas City Royals price range in terms of prospects. Hill is a pure rental, given that he’s on a one-year, $6 million deal in 2016 and is eligible for free agency in 2017.

Yet, there’s little indication that the KC Royals and A’s are considering a Rich Hill deal. Though they have scouting him before, the Royals were not among the horde of clubs that San Francisco Chronicle writer Susan Slusser listed as checking out Hill in his last start against the Blue Jays (which lasted only five pitches before Hill left with a blister problem).

Next: Royals Must Fix Rotation At Trade Deadline

The smart money says the KC Royals will do something before the trade deadline. It just might be a minor deal unless the team catches fire before August 1.