KC Royals: Five Reasons Danny Duffy Became The Staff Ace

KC Royals pitcher Danny Duffy has been one of the best surprises of the season. After beginning the season in the bullpen, Duffy has clearly taken over as the staff ace with a 3.09 ERA with a 10.39 K/9.

I guess the biggest question is how a guy that had been inconsistent over his entire career could suddenly put it all together to put himself in such a position. That’s the focus of this article.

The rather cynical answer is that Danny Duffy is simply better than everyone else. The fact is, most of the Kansas City Royals pitching staff has disappointed this season. Kris Medlen and Chris Young got injured after about a month of play, and have never been right since. Medlen put up a 7.77 ERA and has yet to return from his injury. Meanwhile, KC Royals fans WISH Chris Young had remained injured, because he has a 6.90 ERA in 60.0 innings pitched while giving up a whopping 26 home runs (most in MLB).

Supposedly Steady Edinson Volquez has a 7-8, 4.87 ERA in 16 starts and 105.1 innings pitched, but much of the damage came from one outing in which he surrendered 12 runs in 1.0 innings. Throw out that one start, and Volquez’s ERA goes down to a much more palatable 3.88. That’s a decent mid-rotation starter. Ian Kennedy is 6-7, with a 3.97 ERA and a 9.3 K/9.

Yordano Ventura‘s struggles have been well documented on our site. Let’s just say his performance has been unacceptably inconsistent at 6-6, 5.26 ERA.

Danny Duffy simply jumps out in a truly disappointing group. As a staff, the KC Royals starters rank 25th in major-league baseball with a 5.02 ERA. But, if Danny Duffy can function as a legitimate ace, then KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore’s job at the trade deadline becomes much easier.

Landing a no. 2 or even a mid-rotation guy is much less costly in prospects than a bona fide ace.

Next: Reason No. 5

5) Danny Duffy’s Velocity Jumped 2 MPH

Duffy began the season in the bullpen after finishing the 2015 season strong when Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost pulled him from the rotation. As a reliever, Duffy began throwing as hard as he could knowing that he only had to last one or so innings. He began to attack hitters with his 97 mph fastball and get ahead in the count rather than trying to paint the corners.

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Duffy’s fastball gained almost exactly 2 mph in average velocity, jumping from 94.51 in 2015 to 96.42 in 2016. He’s up nearly 3 mph from his debut season in 2011 (93.83).

When both Kris Medlen and Chris Young went down with injuries in May, the team needed Duffy to return to the rotation. As Duff-man gradually rebuilt the endurance to last deep into games, he stuck with the hard throwing approach.

Viola! Lo and behold, Danny Duffy discovered that he could maintain the hard stuff through a starter’s workload. The situation was very much like Zack Greinke in 2008 who gained velocity as a starter after a stint in the bullpen.

Let’s just hope Danny Duffy can follow a similar career path. Zack Greinke ended up winning a Cy Young award the next season. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Duffy make a similar leap as he becomes more proficient with his new approach to pitching.

Next: Reason No. 2

4) Improved Control

Typically, baseball insiders talk about “command” and “control”. The two terms aren’t exactly the same thing. Control is a pitcher’s ability to throw strikes, which is reflected by his walk rate. Command is the ability for a pitcher to put the ball exactly where he wants it. Command is much more precise than control, since you can get the ball over the plate regularly without an exact location.

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What’s really improved is Danny Duffy’s control in that he’s much more confident in throwing strikes with his harder heat.

We can see the results in his walk rate which is a career best 5.2%, down from a career mark of 9.3%. That’s a massive improvement, driven by the fact that Danny Duffy is typically getting ahead in counts, rather than pitching from behind.

The one downside is that Danny Duffy’s home run percentage has zoomed to 12.2% up from his career rate of 8.7%, but remember that players are hitting home runs at a near-record pace half-way through the 2016 season. Thus, part of that jump is attributable to the league environment rather than Duffy’s increased propensity to throw strikes.

On the upside, because Danny Duffy is getting ahead of hitters, he can use his breaking stuff to its best advantage. Thus, he’s striking out more hitters than ever before. Duffy’s strikeout rate has zoomed to a career-high 28.8% (10.36 K/9) up from his career mark of 20.1% (7.65 K/9).

Next: Reason No. 3

3) Improved Control Lets Duffy Pitch Deeper Into Games

Danny Duffy’s biggest problem as a pitcher has always been his tendency to go deep into counts because he was trying to shave the edges of the plate. That not only led him to issue a lot of walks, but also to rapidly pile up high pitch counts.

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Danny Duffy would often last no more than five innings in his starts, and 6 was really the most you could expect from him when he took the mound. That’s all changed.

Duffy has lasted 63.1 innings in 11 starts this season. While that might not sound like much of an improvement, consider that he was working under a strict pitch limit as he stretched out his arm to transition from the bullpen back to the rotation.

If we look at his last three starts, Duffy has lasted 23.0 innings, which works out to 7.66 innings per start. That, boys and girls, is a fantastic rate. For the month of June, he’s averaged 6.375 innings per start—which would put him on pace to eat more than 200 innings pitched over a full season. As it is, Duffy has pitched 81.2 innings, which puts him on track to break his career high 149.1 innings pitched in 2014.

The ability to go deep into games and eat a lot of innings with high quality results is what makes a player an ace. To carry a team in the post-season, a pitcher needs to pitch into the seventh or eighth inning on a regular basis like Madison Bumgarner did to the Kansas City Royals in the 2014 World Series.

The blunt truth is that Madison Bumgarner is the reason why the KC Royals aren’t two time defending World Champions, rather than just two-time defending AL pennant winners. If the Kansas City Royals had THIS Danny Duffy available to pitch in 2014, even MadBum might not have been able ensure a Giants victory.

Next: Reason No. 2

2) Duffy Has Changed His Pitch Mix

Danny Duffy has changed up his pitch selection quite a bit in 2016. He’s using his fourseam fastball less than ever before, down to 41.60% of the time from 53.49% in 2015 and 65.14% in 2012.

Instead of relying so much on his hard fastball, he’s bumped his sinker usage from 9.67% in 2015 to 15.35% in 2016. He’s completely junked his curve, which is a decision he made in 2015. Duffy used to throw one 13.74% of the time in 2014. Finally, Duffy has increased his use of the hard sinker to 22.49%, up from 12.25% in 2015.

In short, he’s replaced about 20% of his fourseam fastballs with the sinker. And he’s using his change-up rather than curve.

Thus, Duffy is now a four—rather than five—pitch pitcher, which has led to more consistent control and has improved his ability to both miss bats and last deeper into games. That’s a bit of an unusual transformation. Typically a guy that jumps up his strikeout rate, also increases his pitch count—thus compromising his ability to go deep into games.

Danny Duffy has really pulled off quite the parlor trick in 2016, and it’s one of the biggest reasons he’s become the KC Royals ace.

Let’s just hope the results continue to hold true as hitters adjust to Duffy’s new approach on the mound. But, right now, the results look very promising.

Next: Reason No. 1