Royals Midseason Grades – Starting Rotation

The Royals are approaching the midway point of the season and while they are very much in the playoff hunt, there is still a lot of potential roster turnover, specifically in the rotation.

Given the circumstances, it is hard to be incredibly disappointed with the Royals sitting at 43-39 and in second place in the AL Central.

The Royals have dealt with the loss of Mike Moustakas for the season, a DL stint on top of a lack of production for Alex Gordon, the longawaited DFA of Omar Infante, and a horrific first two months of the season for Kendrys Morales.

That isn’t including the streakiness of Lorenzo Cain, the offensive black hole that is Alcides Escobar, and a defense that isn’t up to par with what Royals fans are accustomed to.

All of those obstacles, however, seem minor when compared to the struggles of the Royals starting rotation.

With that being said, I hope you weren’t looking for a fun read today. Because these grades aren’t too pretty.

Next: Yordano Ventura

Yordano Ventura : D-

This season couldn’t have gone further in the wrong direction for the 25-year old flamethrower.

Ventura entered the season with high expectations after finishing the 2015 season with a torrid stretch of 2.38 ERA ball over his last 11 starts. He struck out 81 in 68 IP.

He has proceeded to lay a gargantuan egg in 2016, posting a 5.26 ERA over 87.1 IP while walking a whopping 4.02 batters per nine innings. We saw Ventura’s velocity dip a bit in 2015, and that trend has continued into 2016, with his average fastball velocity sitting at a career low 95.4 MPH.

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With the velocity not being what it has been, the lack of command and control has finally come back to bite him, as his fastball has been smashed thus far in 2016.

According to Brooks Baseball, opposing hitters are batting .387 against Ventura’s heater this year, along with a ridiculous .862 SLG%. His fastball value (wFB) currently sits at -8.9 runs above average. Pair all of that with the brawl he started last month and you won’t find a whole lot to be excited about with Ventura.

Next: Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez : C

Volquez’s grade would likely be higher if it weren’t for that one horrendous 6/24 start against Houston, in which he gave up 11 ER in just one inning.

Obviously this is hypothetical and impossible, but if you remove that one start from his resume, his 2016 ERA drops from 4.80 to 3.81. We see that outlying start reflected in Volquez’s 4.14 FIP, which is good for the highest mark among Royals starters not named Danny Duffy.

Alongside his FIP, Volquez has seen a small bump in K/9 and LOB%, as well as being on pace for back-to-back 200 inning seasons.

For the most part, he has actually been virtually the same pitcher in 2016 that he was in 2015, with him on pace for the same number of starts (34), fWAR (2.6), and strikeouts (154 in 2015 to 155 in 2016).

The biggest difference being that June 24 tire fire.

The Royals are hanging in there, and as Kendrys Morales and (hopefully) Alex Gordon heat up, they should be in position to at least grab a Wild Card slot. However, even that might not be possible with the production they are currently getting from the rotation, let alone another AL Central title.

The Royals are going to need at least one more stable starter to add to Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy, and Volquez fits the bill.

Next: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy Base Grade : B- | Contract Inflation Grade : C-

For the duration of this season, Kennedy has been the Royals most reliable starter.

He trails only Volquez with 93.2 IP, leads Royals qualified starters with an 8.94 K/9 and a 4.04 ERA.

Those numbers were even better before a rotten June to the tune of a 5.83 ERA bloated his ERA up to over four. Despite the rough month, Kennedy has still been a solid starter in a Royals rotation that has been limping since April.

However, what really hurts Kennedy is the huge five-year, $70 million he was given by the Royals in the offseason.

We already knew this a little bit going in, but the Royals gave serious money to a middle-tier free agent with a iffy track record. He has responded by being stable, which the Royals desperately needed, but at the same time unspectacular.

In fact, his fWAR of 0.3 is the exact same as Yordano Ventura, while his FIP 5.21, higher than any Royals starter not named Chris Young. As we discussed in the last slide, the Royals are hanging around and could maybe gain some ground if the rotation started performing.

Kennedy had a rough June, but if he could rediscover the April and May version of himself, it would certainly go a long way towards the Royals playoff hopes and Dayton Moore’s contract conscience.

Next: Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy Base Grade: A+ | Gnar Grade: Gnar

As I wrote before the season began, many people thought Duffy would be a fantastic addition to the Royals bullpen, given his huge arm and the fact that he is a left-hander.

However, with the struggles of basically every starter in the rotation, the Royals were forced to shove Duffy back into the rotation, despite his struggles their last season and his inability to find a third pitch.

Since being put back in the rotation, however, he has responded by being the best starting pitcher in the rotation. In ten starts, Duffy has posted a 3.14 ERA while walking just 11 hitters in 57.1 IP.

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Even more encouraging, Duffy has struck out 66 hitters during that span, good for a 10.36 K/9.

Duffy has been so good in his ten starts that he actually has a higher fWAR this season (1.0) than Ian Kennedy and Yordano Ventura combined (0.6).

In the past, Duffy has struggled to convert elite arm talent from the left side into strike outs, as well as struggling to throw strikes consistently enough to be a legitimate starting pitcher. Thus far in 2016, Duffy has not only improved in those areas, but he has blown them out of the water.

For better context, Duffy hasn’t walked anybody in six of his 10 starts. In his prior starts, he had only done that nine times.

To summarize, Duffman has been super gnar in 2016.

Next: Chris Young