KC Royals: Why Do The Royals Play Differently On The Road?

Jun 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (19) celebrate with teammates after the game winning walk off single in the thirteenth inning over the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (19) celebrate with teammates after the game winning walk off single in the thirteenth inning over the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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Jun 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (19) celebrate with teammates after the game winning walk off single in the thirteenth inning over the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (19) celebrate with teammates after the game winning walk off single in the thirteenth inning over the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

The KC Royals are 38-31 and just 1/2 game out of first place in the AL Central as of 20 June. The KC Royals are 25-8 at home, and 13-23 on the road. In fact, the Royals have one of the best home records in baseball. So why are the Royals such a different team when they play at Kauffman Stadium?

For starters lets look at the Royals home and road splits with respect to offense. At home, as a team, the KC Royals have a slash line of .287/.339/.436. The Royals are also averaging 5 runs per game at home. The only team better in all three hitting categories than KC happens to be the best offense in baseball, the Boston Red Sox, who are slashing .291/.355/.481.

The KC Royals offense on the road however is a different story. The road slash line for KC is .264/.309/.389. Those dismal hitting statistics certainly explains the Royals  averaging only 3.25 runs per game on the road. That is almost 2 runs less per game on the road than at home.

But wait! There’s MORE!

KC Royals pitching at home has been pretty good. At home, Royals pitching has an ERA of 3.47, a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.70, and the K-BB rate is 16%. Meanwhile on the road, Royals pitching has an ERA of 4.48, a FIP of 5.14, and a K-BB rate of 9.9%.

Next: Kauffman Stadium Effect On Pitching

Jun 13, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 13, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Does Kauffman Stadium Cause The Pitching Difference?

Now, you might say that Kauffman is a pitchers park, and to some degree it is.  By “some degree” I mean that while it is harder to hit home runs at the K than some other band box parks. The K does allow a lot more doubles than other smaller parks do. The K also doesn’t have as much foul ground as parks like SF or Oakland so there are other factors than just dingers determining what is and isn’t a pitchers park.

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In any case, there is a stat known as “xFIP” which accounts for differences in ball park dimensions as well as typical wind speeds and direction, elevation etc as well as opponent quality. The KC Royals road xFIP is 4.65, (you can intemperate it like an ERA) while their home xFIP is 3.98. So even when adjusing for ball park, and defense, the Royals pitchers are simply just worse on the road than at home.

However, none of the above statistics really answers the question as to “Why?” the Royals are worse on the road. They only serve to make the case that they are in fact worse on the road and that there isn’t any park factor, or fly-ball factor explaining all the road futility.

One may be able to point to injuries a bit in terms of the offensive road/home spit discrepancy. Brett Eibner was unavailable during the last road trip and has been a key part of both the most recent home-stand, and the one before Eibner went on the disabled list.  Eibner may not be the defender Jarrod Dyson is, but he certainly looks like a massive upgrade at the plate and with him, Paul “Ted Williams” Orlando, and Cain in the outfield, the offense is much better.

Next: Kendrys Morales

Jun 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales (25) connects for a single in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales (25) connects for a single in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

The Kendrys Morales Effect

I think another key is the re-emergence of Kendrys Morales. In the last 14 days, Morales is slashing .390/.468/.610. On the season however he’s slashing .226/.295/.370. The fact that he has been that good the last two weeks yet his season numbers are still that low, and this early in the season, really tells you how tough it has been for ol’ Ken at the plate.

Morales’s production increase does more than just fill a hole in the lineup. It gives players in front of him better pitches to hit such that they can’t just pitch around Hosmer, Cain, or Perez and count on Morales to make the out. We all know that when Morales is on, he is flat out dangerous.

I think another key is the re-emergence of Kendrys Morales. In the last 14 days, Morales is slashing .390/.468/.610.

Making Merrifield the permanent 2B, and moving him to the lead-off spot has also had a tremendous impact. Infante has been inept for awhile now and Merrifield is both an offensive and defensive improvement. Moving him to the lead-off spot means the Royals now have a speedy, patient, and capable bat getting more plate appearances per game than anyone else. I think the lineup could be improved even more by having the order go Merrifield, Cain, Hosmer, Perez, Morales. But hey, progress is progress right?

Explaining the home/road pitching split is a bit more tricky. A part of the difference has been the timing of Danny Duffy entering the rotation. Duffy didn’t enter the rotation until the 21st of May, filling in for the injured Kris Medlen and Chris Young. Duffy has been excellent as a starter so far, but the KC Royals had already had several poor outings on the road by then.

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The other pitching issue has been the Yourdano Ventura roller coaster with many of his poor starts coming on the road. There may be some comfort issue with Ventura on the road vs. at home, but it appears for now that he has gotten it together and I expect him to come back from the suspension ready to play.

Going forward, if the Royals can just get back to .500 on the road and keep defending their home turf, they will have a place in the post season.

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