Royals Early Starting Rotation Evaluation

Now five weeks into the season, we took an in-depth look at the Royals starting rotation

After 27 regular season games, each of the Royals starting pitchers has started at least five games. During that span, the Royals have jumped to a hot start (12-6 after 18 games), and has subsequently regressed sharply (2-7 over their last nine games).

At this juncture, I think it’s time to look at the starting rotating with some depth.

The Royals starting rotation certainly hasn’t been the primary factor behind their 3-7 record over their last ten games.

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As a team, their ERA is nearly league average at 4.21 for the season.  The Royals also strike out more batters per nine innings than league average and the Royals opponents batting average is a full 13 points below the MLB average.

However, while the Royals team averages are around MLB average or better, there are areas where some in Royals starting rotation are struggling. This is specifically true when you factor in the hot start the rotation got off to, and the coming-back-down-to-earth process they are currently in. 

The following table show selected statistics for each Royals starter, the average for the team, and the MLB average. The statistics for the table were retrieved from fangraphs.com

The thing that jumps off this chart more than anything is Kris Medlen‘s inability to get hitters out, whether it be through a well above average opponent average or an astronomically high BB/9.

These two factors easily explain Medlen’s team high ERA of 6.85.

While Medlen has had a couple of decent starts so far, it has been the walks that have done him in, and it has impacted the bullpen in a negative way.  Medlen has averaged just 4.2 innings in his starts, making for at least 3.1 innings from the bullpen, and 4.1 innings if the 9th inning on the road.

With Chris Young, the diagnosis is pretty simple, as it has always been. The home run ball is hurting Chris Young.

Young’s 2.43 HR/9 means that in a five inning start, he is giving up about 1.5 home runs per start, which means that it is basically a coin flip on whether or not he gives up at least two homers in a five inning start.

That is absolutely awful and well above the MLB average.  It does however explain how a guy with a high strikeout rate and fairly low walk rate has an ERA well above 5.5, and if you know anything about Chris Young, this doesn’t surprise you.

For Ventura, he has somehow been able to keep hit ERA at a reasonable 3.67, despite having a BB/9 on par with Medlen. This appears to be because opponents are having a hard time squaring the ball up against him.

Ventrua’s strike out rate isn’t all that impressive, but his opponents batting average is a meager .182 and BABIP is around .203, indicating a lot of soft contact and easy outs.

It’s obvious that Ventura’s stuff is a force to be reckoned with. If Ventura can cut back on the walks, he may be able to go much deeper into games than he is now (5.1 IP/start), as well as becoming even more effective.

Now to the fun stuff.

The two aces of the Royals staff as of right now are Edison Volquez and Ian Kennedy.

Both starters are a full run below the MLB average ERA and Kennedy is near the true “ace” ERA of 2.50.  Kennedy is walking a few more hitter than Volquez (which is semi-shocking), but he is striking out hitters at an above-average rate, and his opponents batting average is well below the MLB average.

The two aces of the Royals staff as of right now are Edison Volquez and Ian Kennedy.

It also appears Kennedy is thankful to be pitching at Kauffman Stadium since his fly-ball percentage is nearly 50%, yet he isn’t being hurt by the home run. He is similar to Chris Young in philosophy, but just has light-years better stuff.

Next: Royals Head To Cleveland For A Three-Game Set

While the overall average of the rotation is on par with the rest of MLB, improvement is needed in the rotation spots currently occupied by Medlen and Young.

If both of them can improve their walk rate, it would certainly bring down their ERA and likely allow them to go deeper into games.

If not, the Royals may have to give a few of their bullpen arms a chance to start, or fill those spots with arms currently on the farm.