Royals Series Preview – Royals at Astros

The Royals begin a four-game set against the Houston Astros tonight at 7:10 PM CT

Monday: RHP Chris Young (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. RHP Collin McHugh (0-1, 135.00 ERA)

The Astros are really going to need McHugh to give up fewer than 135 runs per nine inning for the club to have sustainable success, in my honest opinion.

In short, McHugh’s first start of 2016 was an utter train wreck, as he gave up six runs, five of those earned, while retiring just one Yankee.  He threw a whopping 43 pitches to get that one out.

Chris Young, on the other hand, looked pretty good in his debut, surrendering just two hits over five innings of work against the National League champion Mets. Unfortunately for him, one of those hits was a two-run home run off the bat of Neil Walker which proved to be the only two runs scored by either team on that windy Sunday afternoon.

It was your typical Young start, with him giving up a bunch of fly balls (only three Mets hit the ball on the ground), only managing to go five innings, but being virtually unhittable during those five innings. Representing his career nicely, one of the two hits he surrendered sailed over the right field fence.

This matchup is actually more intriguing than the lack-luster names would suggest, with Young pitching the Minute Maid launch pad the Astros call home. Young’s extreme-fly ball nature doesn’t exactly play to his favor, against a team who had more fly balls leave the yard in 2015 than every team outside of the Blue Jays.

On the other side, McHugh has only faced the regular season Royals once back in 2014, where he scattered five hits across seven innings of work an struck out seven in the process. He didn’t give up a run that day.

He did, however, give up five runs over ten innings in two ALDS starts last fall, including being tagged for the game five loss, giving up three runs over four innings of work.

Must-See Matchup 

Chris Young v. the Astros.

Yes, I mean the whole team.

The Astros hit a ton of balls in the air, which result in a ton of home runs. Chris Young makes his living on balls hit in the air.

With the Royals outfield defense, Young could cruise in this one. That is, if he keeps the ball in the ballpark.

With this game happening at Minute Maid Park, that may not happen.

Next: Game Two

Tuesday: RHP Kris Medlen (0-0, -.– ERA) vs. Mike Fiers (0-0, 9.00 ERA)

When the Royals signed Medlen back in December of 2014, they gave him a two-year contract with a team option.

They gave him that contract knowing that he would miss much of 2015 to Tommy John surgery, buying the upside he provides in 2016.

We have reached 2016 and Medlen is in the rotation, making his season debut on Tuesday, with the Royals waiting to see if he will resemble the 2013 Medlen. If he give the Royals anything more than innings, it will just be icing on the cake of that contract. $5.5 million for a starting pitcher is cake.

His season will begin with quite the challenge, however. Although Medlen dominated on the road last season, he also relied heavily on his fastball, a pitch the Astros smashed in 2015.

And, again, the Astros play in a little-league stadium.

Opposing Medlen is Mike Fiers, who logged a 3.32 ERA over 60+ stretch run innings for the Astros after his trade from Milwaukee.

He has only made one start against the Royals, however, when he gave up six earned runs over just five innings last summer. He also pitched a single inning against the Royals last season, giving up a run in that inning.

Must-See Matchup 

Kris Medlen v. Colby Rasmus.

These two have never faced each other, but make for an interesting mesh of styles.

Medlen, as we’ve discussed, uses a heavy dose of fastballs, while Rasmus registered a 12.3fastball runs above average in 2015.

Add in the fact that the game is being played in Houston (326 feet to the right field foul pole) and that Rasmus put up a .243 ISO against right-handers in 2015, this matchup could turn explosive.

Next: Game Three

Thursday: RHP Ian Kennedy (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Doug Fister (1-0, 5.40 ERA)

Kennedy is set to make his second start as a Royals starting pitcher Thursday, following his dazzling Royals debut, in which gave up zero runs over 6.2 innings, while striking out seven Twins.

He will face Fister, who continues the string of Astros starting pitchers to struggle in their season debut, three runs in just five innings of work

He did get the win, and struck out six Brewers to boot.

Kennedy also continues a trend of home run-susceptible/fastball-happy Royals to trot into the shark tank of a field at Minute Maid park. He gave up a career high 31 home runs in 2015, only to be outdone by his teammate and old friend James Shields, who gave up a league-leading 33 bombs.

If Kennedy has any advantage, it is that he has never faced many of the Astros core (most notably Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Stringer), as well as facing an Astros team who struck out more than any team in 2015 not named the Cubs. 

As for Fister, the Royals have had mixed success against him, mostly from his time as a Tiger. Both Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon have faced 34 times, tied for the 5th most for any hitter against Fister. Gordon is hitting .242 against him for his career, while Alcides is hitting .303 with a double and homer.

Eric Hosmer has also had good success against the right-hander, with a .988 OPS over 26 PA.

For a rotation that figured to be pretty stacked with talent, the Astros got a bargain in Fister, only needing to commit $7 million to Fister on a one-year deal for a guy who is just one season removed from a 2.41 ERA season.

The opposite could be said about Kennedy, who received a massive five-year, $70 million contract, despite coming off a measly 0.8 fWAR season in 2015. In fact, Kennedy put up nearly half of his 2015 fWAR output in one start this season (0.3 in 2016).

Must-See Matchup 

Ian Kennedy v. the Astros (yes, again).

The Astros hit a lot of home runs, and Ian Kennedy gives up a lot of home runs. The Astros strike out a ton and Ian Kennedy strikes a lot of people out.

This will be good television.