Kansas City Royals: AL Central Rivals Preview

The Kansas City Royals opened their season with a 4-3 victory over the Mets Sunday night. Here’s  a look at how the rest of the AL Central stacks up to begin the 2016 season:

The American League Central figures to be a much more competitive division that the 2015 edition that the KC Royals won by 12 games (over second place Minnesota). The Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Cleveland Indians all acquired multiple impact players that should help them improve in 2016. Meanwhile, the bountiful prospects that jam the Minnesota Twins roster should benefit from another year of experience.

The Kansas City Royals are unlikely to win the AL Central by a double digit margin in 2016. In fact, they might not win it at all.

You can make a reasonable case for ANY of the AL Central teams winning the division in 2016. Injuries, and unexpected breakouts or collapses will do more to separate these five teams than talent. Though, in way, this talent parity plays into the hands of the defending World Champion KC Royals because they boast unmatched confidence, championship experience, and team chemistry.

In a division where the teams appear to have closely matched talent, the Kansas City Royals proven roster full of players who know how to win is a significant edge.

Next: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland Indians

2015 Finish: (81-80)

Major Additions: 1B Mike Napoli, 3B Juan Uribe, OF Rajai Davis

Fangraphs Projection: 86-76 1st place

The Indians are all about young pitching. In many ways, the Indians are the Mets of the American League: a rotation loaded with, and carried by, young pitching. In 2014, the Indians had one of the worst team defenses in the league. All of that changed when shortstop Francisco Lindor joined the team in mid-season in 2015.

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Was the defensive improvement just a short sample artifact? Or has Cleveland legitimately improved at picking the ball? If they have, the Indians figure to be a formidable pitching and defense team. Adding Mike Napoli could be a big help here. While the 34-year-old former Red Sox catcher, who now plays first base, is a slightly below-average first sacker, he allows Indians manager Terry Francona to move the horrible Carlos Santana to DH.

The Indians suffered a serious blow to their goal of getting off to a strong start when the were forced to put OF Micheal Brantley, the team’s best player, on the the 15-day disabled list to open the season. While Brantley is expected to recover from his shoulder injury and play most of the season, a nagging injury to Cleveland’s best bat doesn’t help an offense that needs to score more runs than last season.

Veteran OF Will Venable will fill in in Brantley’s absence.

Rotation

1. Corey Kluber
2. Carlos Carrasco
3. Danny Salazar
4. Trevor Baur
5. Josh Tomlin

Closer: Cody Allen

Lineup

1. SS Francisco Lindor
2. DH Carlos Santana
3. 2B Jason Kipnis
4. 1B Mike Napoli
5. RF Lonnie Chisenhall
6. C Yan Gomes
7. LF Will Venable
8. 3B Juan Uribe
9. CF Rajai Davis

The Cleveland Indians season is likely to come down to how well the lineup can support their swing and miss starters. Veterans Uribe, Davis, and Napoli need to stabilize an offense that didn’t score enough runs last season.

The Indians are dangerous. Both PECOTA and Fangraphs project them to win the AL Central. If they put it all together, they could very well run down the defending champion Kansas City Royals.

Next: Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox

2015 Finish: (76-86)

Major Additions: 3B Todd Frazier, 2B Brett Lawrie, SP Mat Latos, C Alex Avila, C Dioner Navarro, OF Austin Jackson, SS Jimmy Rollins

Fangraphs Projection: 81-81 2nd place

Last season, the Chicago White Sox were a trendy pick to overtake defending AL Champion Kansas City Royals and AL Central division winner Detroit Tigers. Despite adding pitcher Jeff Samardzija, LF Melky Cabrera, and DH Adam LaRoche, the 2015 White Sox wallowed despite ace Chris Sale and cleanup hitter Jose Abreu.

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Undeterred, team president Kenny Williams again loaded up this offseason in hopes of competing for the division crown. If nothing else, the White Sox lineup should boast considerable more pop with the additions of Todd Frazier (35 HR) and Brett Lawrie (16 HR).

However, the White Sox will need to overcome a player rebellion caused by Kenny Williams banning Adam LaRoche’s tween son from the clubhouse. LaRoche had negotiated permission for his son to hang around the Sox clubhouse on a daily basis when he signed his free-agent deal last year, but Williams considered him a distraction. Williams reneged on his promise, and demanded that LaRoche’s son spend less time with the players.

LaRoche promptly retired with $13 million left on his contract, which won’t really hurt the team because he looked like an albatross after his bat collapsed last season. In fact, LaRoche’s departure allowed the team to sign OF Austin Jackson. Yet, the White Sox players liked Luke LaRoche and enraged that Williams broke his promise.

In the end, Kenny Williams has to hope the controversy was worth it.

Rotation

1. Chris Sale
2. Jose Quintana
3. Carlos Rondon
4. John Danks
5. Mat Latos

Closer: David Robertson

Lineup

1. RF Adam Eaton
2. SS Jimmy Rollins
3. 1B Jose Abreu
4. 3B Todd Frazier
5. LF Melky Cabrera
6. DH Avasail Garcia
7. 2B Brett Lawrie
8. C Dioner Navarro
9. CF Austin Jackson

Aside from the potential team chemistry issues, the White Sox will need bounce backs from veteran free-agents like Mat Latos, Austin Jackson, and Jimmy Rollins to contend in 2016. Todd Frazier will have to show his second half slide was a mirage, while the lineup can score enough runs to overcome what figures to be a poor defensive team.

While the White Sox could be dangerous, they simply don’t have team unity and overall cohesive fit to truly threaten the Kansas City Royals in 2016.

Next: Detroit Tigers?

Minnesota Twins

2015 Finish: (83-79)

Major Additions: 1B Byung-Ho Park, C John Ryan Murphy

Fangraphs Projection: 77-84 5th place

The Twins shocked the baseball world by reeling off a winning season and hanging into the wild card race deep into September. Though Minnesota won with a bit of smoke and mirrors (they got some VERY favorable hit sequencing to score a lot more runs than expected), they showed a tantalizing taste of their youthful potential.

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22-year-old DH Miguel Sano absolutely crushed the ball in the second half slashing .269/.385/.530 with 18 home runs in only 335 plate appearances. 23-year-old Eddie Rosario showed promise with a solid .748 OPS in right, 26-year-old Eduardo Escobar matured to contribute a 2.0 WAR season at shortstop.

Also, former no. 1 overall rated prospect Bryon Buxton made his debut at age 21, but struggled with a mere .576 OPS in 46 games.

The Twins have decided to give their young talent plenty of room to grow in 2016 by adding few free-agents to clog the way.

Rotation

1. Ervin Santana
2. Phil Hughes
3. Kyle Gibson
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Tommy Milone

Closer: Glen Perkins

Lineup

1. CF Bryon Buxton
2. 2B Brian Dozier
3. 1B Joe Mauer
4. RF Miguel Sano
5. 3B Trevor Plouffe
6. LF Eddie Rosario
7. DH Byung-Ho Park
8. C John Ryan Murphy
9. SS Eduardo Escobar

The Twins remind me of the Kansas City Royals in 2012. They’re really a couple of years away from contention, despite last season’s over-.500 record.

Their biggest problem is their horrible rotation. They simply don’t have enough arms to stay in games. To win in 2016, they’re going to need a big comeback from 2014 free-agent success story Phil Hughes, who collapsed to 11-9, 4.40 ERA in 155.1 IP after a solid 16-10, 3.52 ERA in 209.2 IP in 2014. Not only must they get a bounce back from Hughes, Ervin Santana will need to pitch like he did for the Kansas City Royals in 2013, and Ricky Nolasco will need to provide something besides the batting practice quality pitching he’s produced the last two seasons.

Along with some unlikely success from the rotation, the Twins will need a big step forward from the young guns in the lineup. The bottom line is that Minnesota needs too many coins to land on heads to challenge the Kansas City Royals in 2016.

Next: Royals Hitters Patience In The Clutch Helps Explain Success

I see the playoff-hardened Kansas City Royals with the clear edge to win the AL Central to open the season. Their confidence and team chemistry should carry them to their second straight AL Central title despite tougher competition.