KC Royals: How Eric Hosmer Can Become A Superstar

Oct 27, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) reacts after driving in the winning run with a sacrifice fly against the New York Mets in the 14th inning in game one of the 2015 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Avoiding The Even-Year Slide

Eric Hosmer’s problem is that he’s been inconsistent over his career. After posting an outstanding 118 OPS+ as a rookie in 2011, he slid to .232/.304/.359 and a 81 OPS+ his sophomore season. Hosmer bounced back to .302/.353/.448 with 17 home runs in 2013. He then declined to .270/.318/.398 and an OPS+ of 99 in 2014, before posting a career best 122 OPS+ with a .297/.363/.459, 18 home-run, and 93 RBI performance in 2015.

What does Eric Hosmer need to do to progress in 2016, rather than slide back to mediocrity? I think the following chart from Brooks Baseball holds the key:

As the slugging percentage chart above shows, Hosmer is not a good bad ball hitter.

Yet, we can see Eric Hosmer swings at far more out of strike zone pitches than established first base star Miguel Cabrera (link to Cabrera’s Brook’s Baseball chart):

Fangraphs Pitchf/x data indicates that Cabrera swings at 28.9% of pitches out of the strike zone, as compared to Hosmer’s 33.7%. Yet, Cabera’s plate discipline advantage is even better than the 4.7% difference in out of zone swing percentages. Cabrera’s largest number of out of strike zone swings come against pitches off the left edge. Cabrera actually actually hits those pitchers very well (see Cabera’s slugging percentage heat map at Brooks Baseball).

Cabtera swinging at those inside pitches (Cabrera is a right handed batter) isn’t a mistake. Conversely, Hosmer frequently hacks at low pitches that he can’t hit according to his slugging percentage heat map. If Hosmer can learn to lay off pitches in the dirt, he will presumably improve his slugging percentage—and his home run total.

Developing better plate discipline seems to be the key for Eric Hosmer to reach the next level. He might be well served to keep his swings high until the pitcher gets two strikes on him. If Hosmer get’s fooled on a low pitch, he is likely better off swinging over the ball than adjusting to make contact early in the count.

Next: Bullpen Regression And Joakim Soria

Of course, that’s easy for me to say sitting at my computer—rather than facing 95 mph fastballs, exploding sliders, and dying curveballs.

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