KC Royals: How Eric Hosmer Can Become A Superstar

KC Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer is the player that can bust the “No Superstar” narrative with a big season in 2016.

Three days ago, I argued that the “No Superstar” perception about the Kansas City Royals isn’t really accurate. Part of the problem is that KC Royals players tend to possess all-around excellence due to the personnel department’s emphasis on athleticism. Another cause for the perception gap is Kansas City’s small market size and long absence from relevance. Only after the KC Royals swept their way to the 2014 World Series did mainstream pundits and sports programming pay real attention to them.

That’s really about a year and three months.

Before two seasons of success came a 28-year exodus of failure. The only fans that paid any attention to the KC Royals were those born close to Kansas City, or had a KC player on their fantasy baseball team.

All of that has changed now. Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer appeared on the Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. Mike Moustakas, Jeremy Guthrie, and Drew Butera joined Eric Stonestreet to pepper Jimmy Kimmel with paintballs on TV after Kimmel lost a World Series bet to Stonestreet.

With two straight World Series appearances, and winning on the big stage in New York, the KC Royals are no longer anonymous. Rather than simply names with a stat line that sabermetric geeks might know, the KC Royals are becoming familiar faces to baseball fans across the country.

Next: Becoming A Superstar Is As Much About Perception As Performance

Becoming A Superstar Is As Much About Perception As Performance

Unless a player emulates Mike Trout and puts up four MVP-worthy seasons in his first four years in the league, he’s unlikely to be perceived as a superstar unless he does something memorable.

That’s why Eric Hosmer has a chance to break the “No Superstar” narrative. At age 26, he’s got all the superstar bling. He’s a 6’4″ alpha male. He’s got the baseball pedigree as the third overall pick of the 2008 draft. He’s got the “superstar” worthy girlfriend in Kacie McDonnell. And most of all, Hosmer’s wild dash to home plate that tied Game 5 of the World Series is an iconic play that baseball fans will remember for years to come.

The one thing that Eric Hosmer lacks is dominant performance on the field. In his five seasons in major-league baseball, Hosmer has been more “good” than “great”. His career .280/.336/.427 slash line with 77 home runs give him a solid OPS+ of 108 (8% better than a league average hitter).  Hosmer’s big claim to baseball excellence is his three consecutive Gold Gloves, and finishing third in the Rookie-Of-The-Year voting in 2011.

The problem is, Hosmer has not really pushed his ceiling much beyond the promise he showed his rookie season. His .293/.334/.465 slash line with 19 home runs and 78 RBI’s looks much like his 2015 All-Star campaign where he hit .297/.363/.459 with 18 home runs and 93 RBI’s as the team’s no. 3 hitter.

As a first baseman, excellent defense and an above-average stick doesn’t cut it. Hosmer needs to mash before fans across the country recognize him as one of the top talents in the game.

We usually expect a player needs multiple dominant seasons before he can win such recognition. However, Eric Hosmer’s strong peripheral credentials will most likely earn him superstar recognition if he slams at least 27 or so home runs in 2016 with an OPS+ around 140.

Analysts will then proclaim that Hosmer has realized the “light-tower power” potential that scouts saw in him as a prospect. Fans will jump to the conclusion that he’s established a new level with one big season due to his pedigree, and his success on the big stage.

Next: Post-Season Heroics Are A Habit For Hosmer

Avoiding The Even-Year Slide

Eric Hosmer’s problem is that he’s been inconsistent over his career. After posting an outstanding 118 OPS+ as a rookie in 2011, he slid to .232/.304/.359 and a 81 OPS+ his sophomore season. Hosmer bounced back to .302/.353/.448 with 17 home runs in 2013. He then declined to .270/.318/.398 and an OPS+ of 99 in 2014, before posting a career best 122 OPS+ with a .297/.363/.459, 18 home-run, and 93 RBI performance in 2015.

What does Eric Hosmer need to do to progress in 2016, rather than slide back to mediocrity? I think the following chart from Brooks Baseball holds the key:

As the slugging percentage chart above shows, Hosmer is not a good bad ball hitter.

Yet, we can see Eric Hosmer swings at far more out of strike zone pitches than established first base star Miguel Cabrera (link to Cabrera’s Brook’s Baseball chart):

Fangraphs Pitchf/x data indicates that Cabrera swings at 28.9% of pitches out of the strike zone, as compared to Hosmer’s 33.7%. Yet, Cabera’s plate discipline advantage is even better than the 4.7% difference in out of zone swing percentages. Cabrera’s largest number of out of strike zone swings come against pitches off the left edge. Cabrera actually actually hits those pitchers very well (see Cabera’s slugging percentage heat map at Brooks Baseball).

Cabtera swinging at those inside pitches (Cabrera is a right handed batter) isn’t a mistake. Conversely, Hosmer frequently hacks at low pitches that he can’t hit according to his slugging percentage heat map. If Hosmer can learn to lay off pitches in the dirt, he will presumably improve his slugging percentage—and his home run total.

Developing better plate discipline seems to be the key for Eric Hosmer to reach the next level. He might be well served to keep his swings high until the pitcher gets two strikes on him. If Hosmer get’s fooled on a low pitch, he is likely better off swinging over the ball than adjusting to make contact early in the count.

Next: Bullpen Regression And Joakim Soria

Of course, that’s easy for me to say sitting at my computer—rather than facing 95 mph fastballs, exploding sliders, and dying curveballs.