KC Royals: How Eric Hosmer Can Become A Superstar

Becoming A Superstar Is As Much About Perception As Performance

Unless a player emulates Mike Trout and puts up four MVP-worthy seasons in his first four years in the league, he’s unlikely to be perceived as a superstar unless he does something memorable.

That’s why Eric Hosmer has a chance to break the “No Superstar” narrative. At age 26, he’s got all the superstar bling. He’s a 6’4″ alpha male. He’s got the baseball pedigree as the third overall pick of the 2008 draft. He’s got the “superstar” worthy girlfriend in Kacie McDonnell. And most of all, Hosmer’s wild dash to home plate that tied Game 5 of the World Series is an iconic play that baseball fans will remember for years to come.

The one thing that Eric Hosmer lacks is dominant performance on the field. In his five seasons in major-league baseball, Hosmer has been more “good” than “great”. His career .280/.336/.427 slash line with 77 home runs give him a solid OPS+ of 108 (8% better than a league average hitter).  Hosmer’s big claim to baseball excellence is his three consecutive Gold Gloves, and finishing third in the Rookie-Of-The-Year voting in 2011.

The problem is, Hosmer has not really pushed his ceiling much beyond the promise he showed his rookie season. His .293/.334/.465 slash line with 19 home runs and 78 RBI’s looks much like his 2015 All-Star campaign where he hit .297/.363/.459 with 18 home runs and 93 RBI’s as the team’s no. 3 hitter.

As a first baseman, excellent defense and an above-average stick doesn’t cut it. Hosmer needs to mash before fans across the country recognize him as one of the top talents in the game.

We usually expect a player needs multiple dominant seasons before he can win such recognition. However, Eric Hosmer’s strong peripheral credentials will most likely earn him superstar recognition if he slams at least 27 or so home runs in 2016 with an OPS+ around 140.

Analysts will then proclaim that Hosmer has realized the “light-tower power” potential that scouts saw in him as a prospect. Fans will jump to the conclusion that he’s established a new level with one big season due to his pedigree, and his success on the big stage.

Next: Post-Season Heroics Are A Habit For Hosmer

Post-Season Heroics Are A Habit For Hosmer

A big year will cause pundits to dig into Hosmer’s game. They’ll find that his mad dash home is in no way his only big play with the pressure on.

Instead, Eric Hosmer has made a habit of succeeding in the clutch during the post-season. He’s set a KC Royals record with 29 post-season RBI’s in 31 playoff games (breaking the club record of an obscure guy named George Brett). Hosmer’s two-run home run sealed the team’s four-run rally to defeat the Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS. His two-run shot in Game 2 of the 2014 ALDS beat the Angels in extra innings.

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Overall, Hosmer has hit .342 with runners on base in the playoffs (12 for 35).

Hosmer’s history of playoff heroics goes back to the minor leagues. He hit six home runs during the 2010 Texas League playoffs, including a two-run shot to win Game 3 of the championship series against the Midland Rockhounds. NW Arkansas had been losing 1-0 before Hosmer’s eighth-inning dinger.

All of the above is why agent Scott Boras will fight any move by the KC Royals to sign Eric Hosmer to a contract extension. A big 2016 season from Hoz will push his market value into the nine-figure stratosphere. Meanwhile, Hosmer doesn’t need to trade contract years for security. Hosmer has made $18 million during his professional career, if you include the guaranteed money for 2016. He also earned a $6 million signing bonus as the third overall pick in 2008.

With $24 million in total earnings, Hosmer shouldn’t be hurting for groceries for the rest of his life.

Thus, Hosmer can afford to play out the next two seasons and hope for that breakthrough that will put him among the game’s elite.

Next: Avoiding The Even-Year Slide

Avoiding The Even-Year Slide

Eric Hosmer’s problem is that he’s been inconsistent over his career. After posting an outstanding 118 OPS+ as a rookie in 2011, he slid to .232/.304/.359 and a 81 OPS+ his sophomore season. Hosmer bounced back to .302/.353/.448 with 17 home runs in 2013. He then declined to .270/.318/.398 and an OPS+ of 99 in 2014, before posting a career best 122 OPS+ with a .297/.363/.459, 18 home-run, and 93 RBI performance in 2015.

What does Eric Hosmer need to do to progress in 2016, rather than slide back to mediocrity? I think the following chart from Brooks Baseball holds the key:

As the slugging percentage chart above shows, Hosmer is not a good bad ball hitter.

Yet, we can see Eric Hosmer swings at far more out of strike zone pitches than established first base star Miguel Cabrera (link to Cabrera’s Brook’s Baseball chart):

Fangraphs Pitchf/x data indicates that Cabrera swings at 28.9% of pitches out of the strike zone, as compared to Hosmer’s 33.7%. Yet, Cabera’s plate discipline advantage is even better than the 4.7% difference in out of zone swing percentages. Cabrera’s largest number of out of strike zone swings come against pitches off the left edge. Cabrera actually actually hits those pitchers very well (see Cabera’s slugging percentage heat map at Brooks Baseball).

Cabtera swinging at those inside pitches (Cabrera is a right handed batter) isn’t a mistake. Conversely, Hosmer frequently hacks at low pitches that he can’t hit according to his slugging percentage heat map. If Hosmer can learn to lay off pitches in the dirt, he will presumably improve his slugging percentage—and his home run total.

Developing better plate discipline seems to be the key for Eric Hosmer to reach the next level. He might be well served to keep his swings high until the pitcher gets two strikes on him. If Hosmer get’s fooled on a low pitch, he is likely better off swinging over the ball than adjusting to make contact early in the count.

Next: Bullpen Regression And Joakim Soria

Of course, that’s easy for me to say sitting at my computer—rather than facing 95 mph fastballs, exploding sliders, and dying curveballs.