KC Royals: Could KC Have Won Title Without Johnny Cueto And Ben Zobrist?

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Oct 28, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) is dunked with a cooler of water by catcher Salvador Perez (13) after throwing a complete game to defeat the New York Mets in game two of the 2015 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore broke nine seasons of relative trade deadline inactivity to acquire ace starter Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds, and super-utility player Ben Zobrist from the Oakland A’s, last July. Could the Kansas City Royals have won the World Series without those deals?

Please do not construe this question as implied criticism of Dayton Moore. The KC Royals won the World Series for the first time in 30 years. He doesn’t have ANYTHING (baseball related) to apologize for in 2015, and probably for his entire 10-year tenure.

Yet, I still see it as a valid question. At the time that Dayton Moore dealt five minor-league pitchers for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, the Kansas City Royals had the best record in the American League and a seven-and-a-half game lead over Minnesota in the AL Central.

Of course, the KC Royals had lost Alex Gordon for what was expected to be two months with a severe groin muscle tear. Young rotation guns Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy had failed to give the team a staff ace (as many hoped before the season). Cueto and Zobrist promised to be clear upgrades at the time Moore made those deals.

Add in the fact that Moore had a team that had proven their ability to win in the post-season the year before, I can completely see the logic in loading up for bear while you had a team that you knew could win it all.

Next: The Royals Didn't Need Cueto And Zobrist To Win Central

Oct 12, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) celebrates in the dugout after scoring against the Houston Astros during the eighth inning in game four of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park. Royals won 9-6. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

Royals Didn’t Need Cueto And Zobrist To Win Central

But, as it turned out, Johnny Cueto struggled in the final two months of the season. His 4-7, 4.76 ERA finish hardly carried the Kansas City Royals to the AL Central title. In fact, one could argue that the KC Royals won the Central despite Cueto’s performance.

Cueto And Zobrist Made Critical Contributions In Playoffs

Johnny Cueto made four playoff starts resulting in a 2-1 record, and 5.40 ERA. While that doesn’t look very impressive, his numbers were distorted by one terrible start against Toronto in which he gave up eight runs in 2.0 innings. Aside from that stinker, Cueto had one solid start in game 2 of the ALDS against Houston, and two of the best playoff starts in KC Royals history in Game 5 of the ALDS and Game 2 of the World Series.

Cueto’s pair of two-hitters provided wins in the deciding game of the ALDS and put the KC Royals ahead two games to zero in the World Series.

Meanwhile, Ben Zobrist hit .303/.365/.515 with eight doubles, two home runs, and six RBI’s in the 2015 post-season for Kansas City. Zobrist also drove in the winning run in KC’s 5-4 win over Houston in Game 2 of the ALDS, and stroked a single during the Royals five-run rally in the 8th inning of Game 4 that staved off elimination.

Remember that the Kansas City Royals just barely survived against the Astros in the ALDS. As I’m sure many KC Royals fans are sick of hearing, the Astros were six outs away from sending KC home for the winter with a four-run lead. Remember also that the KC Royals also had to rally from a 4-2 deficit to win Game 2, with Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel pitching the next day.

I’m not sure the Royals could have afforded anything less than every bit of player value that they got during the tight Astros series. I think it’s pretty clear that both Zobrist and Cueto made critical contributions that allowed the KC Royals to survive a severe challenge.

That’s not to deny that other players might have performed well in their place. Christian Colon, who drove in the winning run in his only playoff at bat in Game 5 of the World Series, likely would have taken over second base had Zobrist not been on the team. Moore might have called up John Lamb to take the the place of the tiring Chris Young in the KC rotation if the Cueto deal didn’t happen.

While John Lamb’s 1-6, 5.80 ERA in ten starts with Cincinnati look bad on the surface, digging into the numbers shows that Lamb suffered from some bad luck, or bad defense, in Cincinnati. Lamb struck out an outstanding 10.5 per nine innings, while walking an acceptable 3.4 per nine. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was a much better 4.13. The reason Lamb gave up so many runs seems to be an unusually low strand rate of 68%.

Lamb might have proved to be a live arm down the stretch, and in the playoffs, with the KC Royals defense behind him.

Next: Fangraphs Projects Losing Season For Royals In 2016

In the end, we can’t say for certain that the Kansas City Royals would have lost the World Series without Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist. But, I sure as heck would not want to go back in time and replay the 2015 playoffs without their contributions.

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