Kansas City Royals: Bargain Rotation Targets

May 4, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a baseball on the pitching mound before a game between the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals need rotation help. The only starters that seem sure to produce innings are Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez. Behind them, the rotations is filled with questions marks like Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy, and Dillon Gee.

KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore has nosed around numerous rotation candidates, but seems frozen from making any major deal until free agent Alex Gordon makes a decision on where he will sign.

If the Kansas City Royals do sign Gordon, or another outfielder, to a significant deal, the team might have few resources to fill their rotation needs. In that case, Moore will need to root through the bargain bin to find possible rotation options.

Such a result doesn’t mean he’s doomed to failure. As KC Royals fans should remember, bargain signings like Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, Chris Young, and Joe Blanton produced well enough to help the Kansas City Royals take their second World Series title in franchise history. Volquez and Young were particularly effective. Edinson Volquez earned the knickname “Steady Eddie” by going 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA in 200.1 inning pitched and making 33 starts. Chris Young chipped in 18 starts and a 3.06 ERA and an 11-6 record.

While Kris Medlen also contributed 8 starts and a 4.01 ERA, the Kansas City Royals hope that he can contribute a full season in the rotation in his second year back from his second Tommy John surgery. The best-case scenario is that Medlen can recapture a bit of the dominance he showed in 2012-13 when he headlined Atlanta’s rotation, however only Chris Capuano has ever returned from two Tommy John surgeries to hold down a rotation spot for the long-term. No one really knows what to expect from Medlen this season.

Perhaps the best strategy for Dayton Moore is to add some rotation lottery tickets with upside, and hope enough of the question marks hit to form an effective rotation in 2016. Below are my favorite candidates to execute such a strategy:

Next: Cliff Lee

Jun 16, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (55) pitches during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum will never again be the guy that blew away hitters on his way to back to back Cy Young awards in 2008-09. He will be 32-years-old in 2016, and has lost his fastball. While he won’t be “the Freak”, he still might be a pretty good pitcher.

Lincecum hasn’t really been effective since 2011. Yet, early last season he enjoyed a strong start with a 5-3 record and 3.00 ERA through the first two months of the season. The wheels fell off his comeback drive with a 7.45 ERA in June. Lincecum then missed the rest of the season due to a torn labrum in his hip (the same injury that Alex Gordon and Alex Rodriguez successfully returned from in the late noughts).

Before the hip injury, Tim Lincecum looked like he had figured out how to succeed without the heat. Lincecum still has a weird, deceptive delivery and with newly developed pitchability he could be a bargain. He might be especially effective switching leagues since many AL hitters haven’t seen a delivery like the Freak’s.

Notice also, that Lincecum has thrown both of his no-hitters (in 2013 and 2014) after he lost his fastball. If he finally figured out how to replicate those flashes on a consistent basis in 2015, then he might be very useful in 2016 with a healthy hip.

The best part is that Tim Lincecum will likely come cheap because he needs to prove that he can still get hitters out without the fastball over a full season. Not only should he be cheap, he should also be very anxious to pitch in front of the Kansas City Royals defense in a big park like Kauffman Stadium.

I must confess a certain bias. I used to play 2K9 and 2K10 and pull trades just to see Lincecum in a KC Royals uniform. I’d love to see it happen in reality, just because.

Come to Kansas City, Tim. You could get another trip to the World Series.

Next: Mark Buehrle

Sep 20, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) throws against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. Boston defeated Toronto 4-3. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Buehrle

Thirty-seven year old Mark Buehrle has been a horse throughout his 16-year career. Last season was the first year his failed to chew up 200 innings since his debut season at age 21. Even still, Buehrle logged 198.2 innings, with a 15-8 record and 3.81 ERA for Toronto.

Buehrle is a guy that has simply defied the three-true-outcomes pitching model (the idea that a pitcher’s true ability lay in the things he has full control over: walks, strikeouts, and home runs). Despite consistently low strikeout rates and Fielding Independent Pitching projections regularly over 4, he has won 214 games with an ERA+ 16% better than league average at 116.

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St. Louis native Mark Buehrle has said he will either retire, or pitch for the Cardinals. But, perhaps Dayton Moore could persuade him that Kansas City is close enough if the Cardinals decide to go in another direction.

Heck, Buehrle has executed his pitch-to-contact model in home parks prone to giving up gopher balls while pitching in Chicago’s Cellular Field and Toronto’s Rogers Centre. He might be even better in a big park like Kauffman with the best defense in baseball behind him.

Perhaps the Kansas City Royals could shuffle Mark Buehrle and Chris Young in and out of the rotation to keep their 37-year-old arms fresh. Hall-of-Fame pitcher Ted Lyons became a “Sunday Starter” late in his career and became even more effective in his last four years.

At 37, Buehrle is likely down to single year contracts. But, who knows. Maybe he’s Bartolo Colon and can succeed into his early 40’s.

Next: Henderson Alvarez

Apr 12, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez (37) looks on from the dugout during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Henderson Alvarez

Henderson Alvarez was the Opening Day pitcher in 2015 for the Miami Marlins. This winter, Miami non-tendered Alvarez due to injury.

Still just 25-years-old, a healthy Henderson Alvarez oozes with promise. Alvarez combines a sinker with a mid-90’s fastball in a lethal combination. In 2014, the 24-year-old was an NL All-Star with a 12-7 record and 2.65 ERA in 187.0 innings.

Unfortunately, his 2015 season rapidly turned into a disaster with two stints on the disabled list followed by season-ending shoulder surgery. While the Marlins would like to have him back, Alvarez is not expected to return to the mound until mid-season. Perhaps Dayton Moore would be wise to convince Henderson Alvarez such a return should happen in Kansas City rather than South Beach.

Henderson Alvarez certain has one big vote on the KC Royals. Fellow Venezuelan Salvador Perez tweeted:

When your prospective backstop see you as the Comeback Player of the Year, it can’t be a bad thing, right? The beauty of Alvarez is he’s still a young pitcher. If he recovers, he figures to be a long-term solution that could combine with Yordano Ventura at the top of the Kansas City Royals rotation for years to come.

Next: Doug Fister

Aug 3, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (33) throws to the Arizona Diamondbacks during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Thirty-two year old Doug Fister is very familiar to the Kansas City Royals from his three strong seasons in Detroit. Never a hard thrower, Fister gets hitters out with a wide selection of stuff, command, and guile. 

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After a trade took him to Washington, Fister enjoyed a terrific 2014 season with a 16-6 record and 2.41 ERA. Great things were expected from the Nationals rotation after adding Max Scherzer to Stephen Starsburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Fister. While Scherzer gave the Nationals everything they could have expected, injuries derailed much of the staff—including Fister who struggled through a rough season with a flexor strain in his forearm.

The injury kept Fister out of action for a month, and when he returned the Nationals put him in the bullpen. Overall, Doug Fister posted a 5-7 record with a 4.19 ERA in 15 starts and 10 relief appearances.

Doug Fister’s inability to return to the rotation could inhibit his market value to the point where he might be willing to accept a one-year, “prove it” deal, which would make him a perfect fit for the Kansas City Royals.

Next: Has Jamaal Charles Lost a Step?

If healthy, Fister could return to the guy that gave Central Division rivals fits during his stint in Detroit. Doug Fister is exactly the kind of pitch-to-contact guy that becomes more effective in Kansas City, which is why the KC Royals should give him a chance to rebuild his value.