KC Royals: What The Royals Know About Pitching That Rivals Miss

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As teams throw risky $100 million+ deals at starting pitchers this winter, it’s clear that the Kansas City Royals front office has figured out something about pitching that their rivals have missed.

The KC Royals have done little but address their bullpen and rotation depth so far this winter. Overall, Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore is pursuing the same strategy with respect to free-agency that succeeded so well last winter: they’re letting the market come to them.

At this point, with many of the major free-agent pieces like David Price, Zack Greinke, and Jason Heyward now off the board, we can begin to see what front offices around the league value. It’s clear that starting pitching is in high demand. Price, Greinke, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmerman inked deals in excess of $100 million, at prices that typically exceeded crowd projections. Jeff Samardzija even got $90 million from the Giants despite slogging through a poor season with a 4.96 ERA.

This emphasis on starting pitching seems a bit strange when you consider that the last five World Series winners have not had a starting staff that ranked in the top ten measured by WAR, highlighted by a no. 22 ranking by the 2015 KC Royals:

[table id=38 /]

Yeah, looks like you don’t have to be the 1970 Orioles to win the World Series anymore. So why are teams lining up to throw mega-deals at top starters?

Next: The Insane Arms Race For Starting Pitching

Dec 11, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher

Zack Greinke

puts on a baseball hat during a press conference at Chase Field . Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Insane Arms Race For Starting Pitching

Why are teams in an arms race to improve their starting pitching when recent history shows winning the World Series does not require a great starting staff?

The teams that handed out these big contracts could very well understand that the starting staff need not be dominant. Instead, they could be chasing after top-of-the rotation guys with the idea that the fourth and fifth pitchers in a rotation mean less in the post-season due to travel days that allow managers to use their most talented starters more often. Perhaps the idea is that aces are important, not the whole rotation.

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Indeed, Madison Bumgarner‘s dominance in the 2014 World Series is their best argument.

However, if great starting pitching were the key to success, why haven’t the Nationals, Tigers, or Dodgers won a title in recent years? At one point the Tigers had Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello on one staff. The Dodgers had Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke the last three seasons. Last year the Nationals boasted Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmerman. None of those staffs carried their team to the promised land.

If recent results don’t worry you, what about the cost? Pitchers are the most fragile athletes in baseball. Yet to sign an ace from the free-agent market, you need to pony up a six or seven year deal for players who are often on the wrong side of 30. Heck, the Giants just shoved $130 million at Johnny Cueto after he suffered from a sore elbow with the KC Royals that likely contributed to a 4.76 ERA over the last two months of the season.

How much value has Cliff Lee delivered on his mega-deal? San Francisco GM Brian Sabean seems determined to provide a living embodiment of Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity. He signed Cueto after getting burned on over $100 million deals for Barry Zito and Matt Cain. Clearly, he expects to get different results despite making the same mistake over and over.

San Francisco GM Brian Sabean seems determined to provide a living embodiment of Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity

In fact, much of the craziness is centered in the NL West, where the Diamondbacks paid $206.5 million for 32-year-old Zack Greinke and traded four top prospects in a widely panned deal for Shelby Miller. The Giants countered by signing Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija.

Notice that gifted Los Angeles Dodgers executive Andrew Friedman has largely avoided the insanity, even though he has more chips to spend than everyone else. He allowed Greinke to walk when his price zoomed beyond reason. Friedman also refrained from reaching for Johnny Cueto or Samardzija. Instead, he restrained himself to signing Hisashi Iwakuma to a three-year, $45 million contract plus dealing for Reds fire-balling reliever Aroldis Chapman to replace Greinke.

That the Dodgers put the trade on hold after uncovering domestic abuse allegations against Chapman doesn’t nullify the clear strategic choice at play.

The KC Royals small-market limits have helped Dayton Moore resist deals for starting pitchers that almost never work.

Next: A Dominant Bullpen Is A Better Alternative

Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher

Wade Davis

throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the 12th inning in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Why A Dominant Bullpen Is The Better Alternative

On the other hand, the KC Royals off-season moves have been aimed at preserving their bullpen dominance. They retained swingman Chris Young, who performed well as both a starter and reliever last season with 16 relief appearances and 18 starts while delivering a 3.06 ERA in 123.1 innings pitched. The KC Royals also invested $25 million over three years to bring back Joakim Soria as a setup man.

The Kansas City Royals have won two straight pennants with a bullpen headlined by three dominant relievers. Dayton Moore has figured out that you can beat aces with mediocre starters supported by elite relievers.

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Take a look at the KC Royals 4.23 rotation ERA from 2015. Kansas City Royals starters gave up .47 runs per inning on average. Over six innings you’d expect them to allow 2.82 runs. However, KC was finishing games with Ryan Madson, Kelvin Herrera, and Wade Davis in playoffs—who were allowing .213 runs per inning as a group. Pitch them three innings and you could expect them to allow .641 runs.

Suddenly, your below average starters sport a solid 3.43 ERA over an entire game. That’s how the KC Royals finished third in the AL in staff ERA despite a jury-rigged rotation.

In many ways, the 2015 season wasn’t the best embodiment of the Kansas City Royals winning formula. Greg Holland struggled most of the year until he broke down with elbow trouble in September. The 2014 bullpen that featured the famous HDH trio of Herrera, Davis, and Holland gave up a mere .142 runs per inning—a run expectancy over three innings of .426. With HDH, that 4.23 ERA staff now has an effective 3.25 ERA.

The beauty of a bullpen with a dominant back-end trio is that you can deploy them only when needed. If your offense hangs a 10-spot on the opposition, you can leave them in the garage. Is it any wonder that projection systems based on run-differentials consistently under-estimate the KC Royals?

In short, a dominant back-end trio allows the team manager to turn his milquetoast starter into an ace if the game is close. Even with teams bidding up the prices on setup men in an attempt to build a “Kansas City Royals” bullpen, the results are still worth the cost.

In a world where you can’t grab all the talent you really want, choosing cheaper relievers, with shorter guaranteed contracts, over fragile aces makes sense.

Next: Royals Pursuing Yovani Gallardo; Sign Dillon Gee

That’s why Dayton Moore is willing to pay top dollar to stock the KC Royals bullpen. He’s found a way to compete with baseball’s top guns without shelling out nine-figure contracts.

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