KC Royals: Candidates to Replace Alex Gordon

Sep 26, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez (5) hits a walk off two run home run during the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field. The Rockies won 8-6. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Gonzalez

Thirty-year-old Carlos Gonzalez might be the most exciting name on the list. Gonzalez slammed 40 home runs for the Rockies last season, while playing a credible right field. His .271/.325/.540 slash line and left-handed bat would make him a more than adequate replacement for Alex Gordon.

Of course, the problem with Colorado hitters are you have to wonder what they will do away from Coors Field. Last year, Gonzalez showed a pretty severe home and away split, hitting .299/.355/.617 with 24 dingers at home and .243/.294/.464 with 16 homers on the road.

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Last seasons home and away splits mirror his career numbers. In eight seasons in Colorado, Gonzalez has hit .324/.382/604 at home and .255/.310/.441 on the road.

Carlos Gonzalez is still an above-average offensive player on the road, but not the lineup centerpiece that his overall numbers would lead you to believe.

Defensively, Carlos Gonzalez can play all three outfield positions and has won three gold gloves—the last one coming in 2013. But, don’t think he’s up to Alex Gordon’s standard as a corner outfielder.

Gonzalez has posted negative Ultimate Zone Ratings (UZR) the last two seasons (-1.9 in 2015, -9.4 in 2014) after knee surgery in 2014. He did, however, earn a +5 defensive run saved (DRS) in 2015. Carlos Gonzalez also possesses a legitimate right field arm, posting eight assists in 2015 and 41 total since 2011.

The problem with Carlos Gonzalez is that he only has two more years of team control remaining, and he won’t come cheap. First, Gonzalez will cost $37 million over the next two seasons. Second, the Rockies asking price for him is bound to be high.

Can the KC Royals afford to surrender more prospects after dealing five pitchers at the trade deadline to load up for last season’s successful World Series run? A CarGo deal will probably require at least one of Raul Mondesi, Miguel Almonte, or Kyle Zimmer plus two other prospects, to make the trade happen.

Next: Denard Span

Jun 24, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder Denard Span (2) catches a fly ball during the game against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Denard Span

Denard Span is probably my favorite alternative if the Kansas City Royals can’t re-sign Alex Gordon.

The soon-to-be 32-year-old Span patrolled center-field for the Minnesota Twins for five years, before moving on to Washington.  Span doesn’t have great power, hitting only 55 home runs in his career, but he does bring speed, range, and a solid bat to the table.

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The lefty hitting Denard Span has slashed .287/.352/.395 over his career. He certainly fits the KC Royals model of a guy that can keep the line moving with a .352 career OBP and an 11.4% strikeout rate.

Moreover, Span is still a speed threat. He stole 11 bases in 2015 in only 61 games before season-ending hip surgery for a torn-labrum (Alex Gordon recovered from the same surgery in 2009). He swiped 31 in 2014, and  152 in his eight-year career.

Defensively, Denard Span has been a rangy center fielder, with UZR ratings of 15.7 in 2011 and 9.9 as recently as 2013. However, he’s fallen into negative numbers since 2014. Yet, in Kansas City he would likely play in left which would make him look better. Unfortunately, Span lacks the strong arm that KC Royals fans have become accustomed to seeing from their outfielders, though he did post seven outfield assists in 2014 and 39 in his career.

The best part about Span is likely to be his price. Along with the hip surgery that ended his season, Span began the year on the disabled list after sports hernia surgery in December. As a free-agent coming off multiple injuries in his early 30’s, Span might agree to a one-year, “prove it” deal  to rebuild his free-agent value. Denard Span would be a low-risk stop-gap until outfielders like Bubba Starling, Jorge Bonifacio, Brett Eibner, and Jose Martinez can establish themselves.

Next: Charlie Blackmon

Jul 27, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Colorado Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon (19) makes a catch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Charlie Blackmon

One time All-Star Charlie Blackmon is another Colorado outfielder, who primarily played center in 2015. At 29-years-0ld, Blackmon is a left-handed hitter who will be first time arbitration eligible in 2016. In short, that makes him pretty cheap with three-years of team control remaining.

That’s the good.

The bad is that Charlie Blackmon is a Colorado outfielder with a strong home/away split.  For his career, he hit a solid .334/386/.501 at home, and a terrible .241/.283/.370 on the road. You have to wonder what Charlie Blackmon will produce away from Coors Field on a regular basis.

Defensively, Blackmon doesn’t really have the range you want in center with a -11.1 career UZR. However, he’s a much more acceptable 6.0 in 574.0 innings in left and 8.1 in 955.0 career innings in right. He also notched nine outfield assists in 2015. He should be fine as a corner outfielder, but he lacks the defensive excellence of Alex Gordon.

Given those reasonable doubts about Blackmon’s bat, and his status as a late-bloomer, the KC Royals might get him for a fairly cheap price in prospects. Obviously, he’s not going to command anything like the package that Carlos Gonzalez would require—which means the Kansas City Royals wouldn’t have to give up top tier talents like Raul Mondesi or Miguel Almonte.

I wouldn’t get excited about a Charlie Blackmon deal, but I wouldn’t pitch a fit. To me, Blackmon is fallback position in case the KC Royals can’t get what they really want on the corner outfield market.

A legitimate playoff contender like Kansas City should do better than Charlie Blackmon. The only way I would be pleased with such a deal is if Dayton Moore landed a good rotation piece like Scott Kazmir, which forced him to accept a cheap corner outfield solution.

Next: Corey Dickerson

Apr 23, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies left fielder Corey Dickerson (6) hits a home run during the fifth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field. The Rockies won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Dickerson

Corey Dickerson is yet another lefty-hitting Colorado outfielder. Though he’s played a smattering of games in center,  he’s mostly been a left fielder. Dickerson does not turn 27 until May 22, and is not arbitration-eligible until 2017. That means Dickerson would be a VERY budget friendly solution.

Call to the Pen

However, Dickerson is more of a part-time platoon player than a full-time corner outfielder.  In short, Corey Dickerson can’t hit left-handed pitching with a .246/.299/.377 triple slash against southpaws for his career. Though Dickerson is an effective hitter against right handers, hitting .313/.358/.577.

The platoon limitation is compounded by his extreme home and away split. Dickerson slashed .355/.410/.675 in Colorado and a mere .249/.286/.410 on the road.

Consequently, you have to take his .312/.364/.567 season in 2014 with 24 home runs and 76 RBI’s with a grain of salt. He only played 65 games in 2015 with another good-looking .304/.333/.536 slash line with 10 homers. Despite those deceptively good slash lines, he’s really only a part-time player on a team with championship aspirations.

If Corey Dickerson were to come to Kansas City, you’d need to platoon him with a right-handed bat like Paulo Orlando because his defensive limitations pretty much make him useless against a left-handed pitcher. Dickerson carries a -5.9 UZR for his career as an outfielder. He’s also not much of a base-stealing threat. The only time Dickerson managed doubled digit steals was in 2010 with 12 in rookie ball.

Dickerson wouldn’t be a clear cut starter in Kansas City. He’d just be a veteran bat to add to the outfield mix. Again, I would find Corey Dickerson an acceptable solution only if the KC Royals managed to add a significant piece to the rotation which soaked up their available payroll.

Next: Jay Bruce

Aug 30, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) hits a double in the eighth inning as Milwaukee Brewers catcher Martin Maldonado (12) watches at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce used to be a good corner outfielder. As recently as 2013, The lefty-hitting Bruce put up a 5.3 bWAR (wins above replacement) season for Cincinnati. But he’s crashed to a barely above replacement level player the last two seasons.

In Jay Bruce’s defense, his awful -1.1 bWAR season in 2014 included a torn meniscus in his right knee that he rushed back from after a mere two weeks. The Reds even admitted that they mishandled his recovery.

That explanation, however, does not excuse his 2015 season—which wasn’t a whole lot better. In 2015, Bruce slashed a mediocre .235/.305/.432 with 26 home runs and 87 RBI’s. That’s hardly a season to write home about, especially when you consider that Bruce played his home games in the bandbox known as the Great American Ballpark.

However, Bruce did suffer from a terrible .251 Batting Average Balls In Play (BABIP) in 2015, which is much lower than his career .287 BABIP. The problem is that his BABIP crashed after his knee surgery in 2014, so you have to wonder if that low rate is now a “new normal” for him rather than an anomaly. Further, Bruce is anything but a “keep the line moving” type of hitter with a 24.2% strikeout rate over his career.

The soon-to-be 29-year old Jay Bruce’s defense has also taken a big hit since his injury. After enjoying a 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating as recently as 2013, he’s posted a -7.0 in 2014 and -3.8 in 2015. Despite declining range, he still has a strong arm in right with 11 outfield assists in 2015.

Bruce is under contract for two more seasons at $26 million. Given that he put up a mere 0.8 bWAR last season, you have to wonder if he is worth $12 million in 2016. However, the last season of his deal is a team option in 2017 at $13 million, with a $1 million buyout. Bruce is really only a one-year obligation for $13 million, which considerably reduces the risk.

The Reds are now in rebuild mode and would like to shed Jay Bruce’s contract for prospects. Bruce, however, would probably only command two C+ talents in return, which would mean a trade for him probably would have little impact on the KC Royals farm system.

The Colorado options all carry the risk that they won’t perform away from Coors Field, with the possible exception of Carlos Gonzalez who—at least—has a career .757 OPS on the road. Denard Span carries an injury concern, but there’s a good track record of players returning from a torn-labrum. Getting Jay Bruce is a gamble that you might get a rebound two years removed from 2014 knee injury.

The KC Royals have also inquired about Todd Frazier and expressed interest in Gerardo Parra, but Frazier’s price in prospects is likely to be prohibitive and the possibility of adding Parra’s been well-covered by pundits going back to the trade deadline.

Next: Jarrod Dyson Is Not Enough For KC Royals

Stay tuned KC Royals fans, with Jason Heyward signing the outfield market is likely to sort itself out rather quickly. And, with the Cardinals interested in Alex Gordon, he could make a decision soon.