Kansas City Royals: Projecting The Playoff Roster

Sep 26, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals take batting practice before the game against the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals have won their first Central Division title in franchise history, and will play in their second consecutive post season for the first time since 1984-1985. With four games remaining in the regular season, now is a good time to look at who will make the 25-man playoff roster.

First, let’s look at the rules. Only players on the 25-man roster or the disabled, bereavement, family medical emergency, and paternity lists are eligible to play for KC Royals in the post season. The only exception to this rule is if a player suffers an injury, the club may replace that player with anyone in the organization (including minor leagues) as of August 31 with permission from the commissioner’s office.

Thus, September call-ups will typically have to be an injury replacement to play in the post-season.

Each team must establish a 25-man roster before each playoff series.

One major difference between the playoffs and the regular season is that teams get built-in off days for travel. The Division Series uses a 2-2-1 game format, with off days after each two-game set. Seven game series like the League Championship Series and the World Series use a 2-3-2 format, with off days after game two and game five.

The bottom line is that teams will typically use only four starters rather than the five used during the regular season. Often the fifth starter is either left off the playoff roster, or moved to the bullpen. Another major difference between the playoffs and regular season is that teams can use a shorter bullpen. Due to the built in off days, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost will be able to use his best relievers every game.

As a result, a playoff team can get away with as few as 10 pitchers total (four starters and six relievers). That means Yost can choose to add two more bench players, yielding room for specialty skill sets like base-running demon Terrance Gore. These kind of skill sets can prove critical in a close game.

Given these strategic considerations, which 25 players will give the Kansas City Royals their best chance to win in the post-season?

Next: Rotation

Sep 26, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher

(39) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Indians in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

ROTATION

The four man rotation figures to be the three Dominican starters Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura plus either Kris Medlen or Chris Young.

Johnny Cueto was acquired to be the ace at the trade deadline, but he hasn’t pitched up to his reputation with a 4.95 ERA in 12 starts for the Kansas City Royals. However, he’s been better ever since he convinced catcher Salvador Perez to provide him with a lower target. In three starts since the adjustment, Cueto has given up eight runs in 20 innings pitched (3.60 ERA). He’s qualified for three quality starts in a row.

While Cueto has not quite been the dominant ace he was in Cincinnati, he seems to be getting comfortable in Kansas City.

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Edinson Volquez has been the KC Royals most consistent starter all season. With a 13-9 record and a 3.83 ERA, Volquez slots in as the no. 2 pitcher.

Yordano Ventura has been the wild card. After a tough middle part of the season in which he struggled with his composure and location, Ventura has settled in during the last couple of months to resemble the overpowering fire-baller Kansas City Royals hoped he could become last winter. Since August 1, Ventura has been an outstanding 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a K/9 of 9.2.

The difference has been Ventura’s command and his improved off-speed pitches. While the walk rates have remained pretty much the same as they were during his early season difficulties, he’s been much more consistent in hitting locations. The payoff has been improved strikeout rates and results.

The big question comes with the fourth starter. Should it be Kris Medlen, as Ned Yost announced during September? Or should Yost hand the ball to Chris Young, who has been dominant in short spurts in the rotation? Young seems to get worn down after extended time taking the ball every fifth day. But, with no more than four or five possible starts in the playoffs, Young might be the better short-term option.

Kris Medlen made the case for retaining his rotation spot with a strong performance Thursday night against the White Sox, pitching six innings and allowing only one run in a KC Royals 6-4 victory. However, Medlen got bombed for six runs in three innings in his last start. He’s also posted a mediocre 4.50 ERA in eight starts. Coming off of two Tommy John surgeries, Medlen is likely not all the way back quite yet.

Meanwhile, Chris Young has pitched well both as a starter and reliever. Young has a 3.30 ERA in 17 starts, and a 2.59 ERA as a reliever. He’s been downright dominant at times, especially when he’s well-rested (like he is right now).

My inclination would be to go with Chris Young, especially if his turn comes up in Kauffman Stadium. However, in bandboxes like Toronto’s Rogers Centre or Yankee Stadium, perhaps Medlen might be the better choice than a pitcher that counts on getting hitters out with fly balls.

Next: Relief Pitching

Aug 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher

(17) reacts after the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Kansas City defeated Boston 8-6. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

RELIEF PITCHING

Here, Ned Yost’s decisions gets interesting. Do you go with six or seven relievers? The question will turn on whether Yost thinks an extra bench player will help the Kansas City Royals more than the seventh reliever.

Right now, the KC Royals appear to be sticking with their three-headed monster model they made famous in the 2014 playoffs. However, since Greg Holland will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on his elbow Friday, the names have changed. Instead of “HDH”, we now have “MHD”—as in Ryan Madson, Kelvin Herrera, and Wade Davis.

While the back end of the Kansas City Royals bullpen remains impressive, only Wade Davis has been as effective as last season. Kelvin Herrera has been less steady than he was in 2014, and Madson—while effective—simply isn’t a substitute for Greg Holland last season. Still, Kansas City Royals fans will have to hope that the bullpen’s September struggles (the KC pen posted an uncharacteristic  4.37 ERA) are now behind them.

Aside from the MHD trio, the KC Royals have lefties Franklin Morales and demoted starter Danny Duffy. The right handed long man figures to be either Chris Young or Kris Medlen, depending on which one gets the nod for the fourth rotation spot.

If Yost decides on a six-man bullpen, that would leave Luke Hochevar inactive. While Hochevar has flashed good stuff at times, he’s simply not been as effective in his first year back from Tommy John surgery as he was in 2013. Hochevar’s 3.81 ERA has been mediocre as well as his 8.9 K/9 (down from an impressive 1.92 ERA and 10.5 K/9 in 2013).

However, with the recent struggles of the Kansas City Royals rotation during September, Yost might not want to dilute his bullpen strength.

This bullpen construction leaves Jeremy Guthrie, Miguel Almonte, Joba Chamberlain, Scott Alexander, Louis Coleman, and Wandy Rodriguez off the playoff roster.

Next: Infield

Sep 25, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second basemen

(18) forces out Cleveland Indians

(11) at second base during the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

INFIELD

The starting five infielders appear set. In recent Kansas City Royals games, catcher Salvador Perez, first baseman Eric Hosmer, second baseman Ben Zobrist, shortstop Alcides Escobar, and third baseman Mike Moustakas have been getting the regular starts.

This alignment doesn’t figure to change during the playoffs, unless Omar Infante is available despite his oblique injury on Sept. 18. 

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Even so, Zobrist had taken over at second base even before Omar Infante‘s torn oblique (side) muscle. After being absent from the starting lineup for 11 straight days, Infante finally got a start on September 17 and responded with a career-high seven RBI’s. Ned Yost gave Infante the nod the next day, and he suffered the injury.

Infante may, or may not, be available for the playoffs. Even if he’s healthy, Infante hasn’t played very well this season due to a nagging bone spur problem in his right elbow. The long rest, however, might help him improve on his terrible .220/.234/.318 season. And, Infante does bring better defense at second base than Zobrist.

The problem is, Infante makes a poor reserve middle infielder because he doesn’t play multiple positions. Christian Colon is a better choice since he has played shortstop, second, and third base in the minors. Designated hitter Kendrys Morales is Eric Hosmer‘s backup at first. Rookie Cheslor Cuthbert could find his way onto the roster, but he only plays second and third.

At catcher, the Kansas City Royals figure to continue with All-Star Salvador Perez backed up by Drew Butera. Francisco Pena could get some consideration as a third catcher, simply because his presence would give Ned Yost more freedom to pinch run for Salvador Perez in the late innings without getting down to his last catcher.

Next: Outfield