Did The Kansas City Royals Cripple Their Farm System?

Oct 15, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman

(35) hugs general manager Dayton Moore after game four of the 2014 ALCS playoff baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals swept the Orioles to advance to the World Series. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

By trading off five young pitchers in exchange for rent-a-players Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, did Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore cripple his farm system?

Certainly, they hurt it. By trading Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed to the Reds for Cueto, and dealing Sean Manaea and Aaron Brooks to Oakland for Ben Zobrist, the KC Royals both denuded their system of four left-handers and cleared out most of the near major league ready pitchers from the upper minors.

According to pre-season prospect ratings by Fangraphs.com, Finnegan and Manaea were the Kansas City Royals two top prospects. John Sickels agreed. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper put the pair no. 2 and 3 behind Raul Aldaberto Mondesi, while Baseball Prospectus’ Nick Faleris ranked them no. 3 and 4.

Pretty much any way you cut it, losing two of your top five prospects hurts the KC Royals farm system.

The 25-year-old John Lamb had pretty much disappeared from the prospect radar as he struggled to recover from Tommy John surgery in 2011. However, in 2015, he regained a bit more velocity to sit in the low 90’s and touch 95. Lamb also added a cutter, which became his strikeout pitch. Suddenly, he was missing bats like he did before and dominated at AAA Omaha with a 9-1 record, 2.67 ERA, and a 9.2 K/9,

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Fangraphs.com quoted a scout that called Lamb “the extra guy” in the Kansas City Royals deal for Johnny Cueto, but he’s big-league ready and looks able to slot in as a bottom of the rotation starter. However, with his prospect pedigree (Baseball Prospectus formerly ranked him the 11th best prospect in baseball), and that he’s added velocity every year since 2012, he might have more  upside than your typical guy with a fringe starter future.

Cody Reed had worked his way back to prospect status with a comeback season at High A and AA (2.53 ERA across two levels), after struggling with his command when the KC Royals made him their second round draft pick in 2013.

Twenty-five year-old Aaron Brooks, was pretty much a guy with average (at best) stuff and a bottom-of-the rotation future .

So, make no mistake, the Kansas City Royals did deal away two of their top prospects and lost quite a bit of depth to load up for their 2015 playoff run.

Yet, the system isn’t dead.

See the “The Prospect Pipeline” to continue:

Next: The Prospect Pipeline

Feb 27, 2015; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher

poses for a portrait during photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the Kansas City Royals appear to need starting pitching next season. Dayton Moore is unlikely to re-sign Johnny Cueto since he could command up to $200 million. Jason Vargas will be lost most of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Jeremy Guthrie‘s contract expires next season, though the parties have a “mutual option” in 2016. With Guthrie wheezing to the finish line of his contract, I don’t see him as a candidate to return.

While it isn’t exactly dry. the minor league pipeline might not be a good match for the team’s immediate needs. Aside from Zimmer, the pitchers most likely to help the KC Royals next season are Brian Flynn (who has missed most of 2015 with a latissimus dorsi injury (shoulder muscle), and 22-year-old Miguel Almonte (who just was promoted to AAA).

Almonte is a top prospect whose results have not matched his stuff. He had a 4.03 ERA and 7.4 K/9 at AA NW Arkansas, and a 1.80 ERA and 9.6 K/9 in two starts at AAA Omaha. While his early success with the Stormchasers looks hopeful, I think holding down a rotation spot for the Kansas City Royals next season is a bit too much to ask.

The 24-year-old Flynn, meanwhile, whom the KC Royals obtained in exchange for Aaron Crow this winter, is major-league ready (presuming he recovers from his shoulder injury) but has only a bottom-of-the-rotation upside.

So, yes, acquiring Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist was expensive. But, I don’t think it limited the Kansas City Royals future to a narrow window. Yes, it will be more challenging to replace prospects now that Moore is picking at the bottom of the draft, but he can cash in established players like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer as they approach free-agency to restock the system.

The fact is, Dayton Moore had better training in sustaining a winning program than any other major-league executive by sitting at John Schuerholz’s elbow while he won 14 straight division titles in Atlanta. I have far more confidence in Moore’s ability to keep the Kansas City Royals rolling than I did in 2006 of him building a winner when he arrived in KC.

Next: Royals Might Not Be Done Upgrading Roster

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• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Day 3 update