Kansas City Royals Survivor: The Rotation Edition

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Who will get voted off the island? That’s the question Kansas City Royals fans are asking these days as the return of Jason Vargas nears, and Royals will have to make a decision regarding it’s rotation.

Currently the rotation consists of the flamethrower Yordano Ventura, the resurgent Danny Duffy, the top starter Edinson Volquez, the dependable Jeremy Guthrie, and the surprising Chris Young. Kris Medlen is set to enter the staff at some point, but he will debut from the bullpen for the time being.

This means that the return of Vargas, who hasn’t pitched since June 8th at Minnesota, will likely bump one of the aforementioned names from the list. Vargas has made 8 starts in 2015 posting a 5-2 record with a 4.10 ERA and 25 strikeouts through 41.2 innings.

It’s safe to assume that Vargas is not a candidate for being bumped out of the rotation just yet so let’s take dive into each candidate and see who will be odd man out. I have ranked the candidates starting with the least likely and leading up to whom I believe will get voted off the island. Let’s see if you agree with me.

Next: He's not going anywhere

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Yordano Ventura

Ah, the 24-year old hard throwing righty who just got his payday, made the start on Opening Day, and has the highest ceiling. Need I really say more? The chances of Ventura pitching out of the pen are the same as me getting a call from Dayton Moore to pitch for the Kansas City Royals. Okay, so maybe not the exact same chance, but it’s hard to believe the Royals sending Ventura to the pen. I mean need I remind you all of a certain Wildcard game against the Oakland Athletics?

Sure Ventura has just a 4-6 record with a 4.73 ERA in 13 starts. He has certainly fallen short in innings thus far with 72.1 while fanning 58 batters. We have yet to see Ventura pitch at the level he did in Game 6 of the World Series. His best start was probably against the Cincinnati Reds versus Johnny Cueto.

It is difficult to imagine that the Royals would move Ventura from the rotation. After all, they had just signed him to a long term extension, and the Royals are certainly not paying him to be a long reliever. His odds of being removed from the rotation are minimal at best. If not for the fact that Volquez has had a better season, he would be the least likely to be removed from the rotation.

Next: He may have turned the corner

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Danny Duffy

#DuffSwag activate. Duffy just pitched arguably his best game of his career on Sunday when he tossed eight innings giving up one run and striking out four. He did exactly what needed to be done with a thin bullpen to win the series clincher to bury a division foe in the first weekend post all-star break. That performance may have assured Duffy of a spot in the rotation, especially considering that he might have been on the bubble prior to yesterday’s outing.

As strange as it may seem, Duffy and Ventura are, at least to some degree, in a position to be removed from the rotation. If this was truly the case, then Duffy picked the perfect time to have his best start of the season. His overall numbers, a 4-4 record with a 4.24 ERA in 13 starts, may not be impressive, but he still has quite a bit of untapped potential.

Like Ventura, Duffy was expected to be much better than he has been this season. As such, his spot in the rotation cannot be considered entirely safe. Yet, Duffy is still a young lefty who has had his moments of dominance and still has quite the high ceiling. The Royals rotation needs both pitchers to be close to what they were last season if they want to make a deep run in October.

Next: The crafty veteran

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Jeremy Guthrie

Here, we have everyone’s favorite pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie. Or, perhaps his is just my favorite member of the Royals pitching staff, since we share the same middle name. With an impressive Twitter game and his veteran experience, Guthrie really is one of the more popular Royals’ starters.

But even the popular kid has a bad day at school every once and while and Guthrie had one of the worst days at school with his historically bad start against the Yankees earlier this year. He gave up 11 runs off 9 hits in one inning, in case you “forgot”.

This year Guthrie has been very up and down, posting a 7-5 record with a 5.36 ERA. He has surpassed the century mark in innings with 100.2 innings this season in 18 starts, while striking out 53 batters in the process.

If Andy McCullough is correct (and he usually is), then it is very likely J-Guts gets moved over to a bullpen role. However you will notice, I don’t have him getting voted off the island in this game of Survivor. I do think Guthrie’s job security is in question if the Royals decide to put Medlen in the rotation simply because his stuff is better. But for many reasons that I will explain in the next slide, Guthrie is not quite the odd man out.

Next: The unexpected savior

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Chris Young

Chris Young has had a solid season, posting an overall 8-5 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.043 WHiP. As a starter, Young has continued his surprisingly strong season, posting a 3.26 ERA and a 1.125 WHiP. That doesn’t necessarily sound like a candidate who gets voted off in Survivor. But here, he is meeting Jeffrey Probst saying, “Your tribe has spoken”.

Sure, it’s not fair with his story and everything Young has done, that he is the odd man out with the return of Vargy. But the 36-year-old righty is my favorite to get bumped to a bullpen role.

The biggest reason I foresee Young getting sent back to the bullpen is the simple fact he has been there before, having made six appearances as a reliever. He came from a long relief bullpen role, and I think whoever gets kicked out of the rotation will likely end up with that job. So why not give the role to a guy who has proven he can do that job?

Next: A few final thoughts

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I think the Kansas City Royals are nervous about making someone like Guthrie into a long reliever when he doesn’t have the track record. Although Young has been a better starter, he has also had success from the pen this season. Likewise, he provides depth as a starter during this stretch in the even the Royals want to use a sixth starter.

The Royals are always looking for ways to give their bullpen some rest, and having a guy like Young in there can do just that. If Guthrie gets blown up in the first again, Ned Yost can call on Young to save the day. He’s not one of the candidates according to Andy McCullough, but Young is who I think will likely get the boot. Besides, if one of the five starters is struggling or gets injured, this gives the Royals the opportunity to call on Young once again.

Regardless of whoever gets voted off the island, it does not mean they won’t have a role with this team, nor does it mean they won’t ever be in the rotation again. If this teaches us anything, it’s that the Royals sure have a lot of depth at the starting rotation, which, of course, is never a bad thing.

Next: Royals Five Biggest Weaknesses at the Break