KC Royals: Dumb Luck Saved Zack Greinke Trade

Apr 8, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

[Editor’s Note: I wrote this story back on July 8. Since then, both Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain won ALCS MVP trophies. They also formed the bedrock of a championship defense]

In December of 2010, KC Royals ace Zack Greinke wasn’t happy. The 27-year-old former Cy Young award winner was sick of losing. And the Royals had just finished a 67-95 season.

Greinke had played seven years in the big leagues, and had yet to play for a team that won more than it lost.

Feeling trapped with two more years remaining on his Kansas City Royals contract, Greinke’s agent showed up at the winter meetings and made sure all of baseball knew his client wasn’t happy.

Greinke left KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore with few alternatives. Greinke had slept-walked his way through the 2010 season to a 10-14 record, with a 4.17 ERA—nearly double his 2.16 ERA during his Cy Young season in 2009. If Moore insisted that Greinke honor his contract, he risked another uninspired performance from Greinke that would do nothing but hurt his trade value.

Moore’s best option was to give Zack Greinke what he wanted.

Kansas City Royals fans know what happened next. Dayton Moore, and the Royals front office, made the best of a bad situation. The KC Royals dealt ace Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers in December of 2010 in return for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress.

The deal worked out better than any KC Royals fan could have hoped. Four years later, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar anchored a defense that carried the franchise to its first World Series appearance in 29 years. If anything, the trade turned out to be a screaming success that ended up better than two more years of Greinke.

Certainly, general manager Dayton Moore, and his front office staff, deserve credit for landing four prospects with major-league futures. Yet, looking at the deals they wanted to make, but could not, shows that the Kansas City Royals enjoyed a lot of good luck.

With the benefit of five years hindsight, we can see that Greinke forced the KC Royals brain trust into what turned out to be the best possible trade they could have made.

Let’s look at the other deals Dayton Moore tried to make, with a nod to yesteryear’s Royals super-blogger Rany Jazayerli—whose thorough analysis of the alternative deals Dayton Moore pursued provided the background for this story:

Next: The Royals Wanted A Guy With Superstar Upside

Mar 6, 2014; Peoria, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman

(13) hits a grand slam home run against the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees weren’t the only suitors for Zack Greinke’s services. The Kansas City Royals share a spring facility with the Texas Rangers, and their Surprise, Arizona co-residents were among the favorites to land the KC ace.

The 2011 Rangers were an excellent team that ended up coming within one out of winning the World Series before falling to the Cardinals. Greinke could have been the difference maker that put them over the top.

The Rangers also had ample prospects to make a deal, including players with more perceived upside than Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi, and Jeffress. But, they failed to pull the trigger.

Betsided

The most common package rumored to be on the table was a trade that would have sent pitcher Tanner Scheppers, shortstop Jurickson Profar, and centerfielder Engel Beltre to the KC Royals.

This deal would have been another disaster for the Kansas City Royals.

Tanner Scheppers did not become the starter scouts expected. Instead, he’s been nothing more than a rather pedestrian reliever  with 158.0 innings pitched in his career for a mediocre 3.82 ERA and an ERA+ of 109 (9% better than a league-average pitcher).

Both Engel Beltre and Jurickson Profar were thought to have much more upside than Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. In 2013, Baseball America rated the then 20-year-old Profar the no. 1 prospect in all of baseball, while Beltre was 21-years-old in 2011 with much more development time ahead of him than Cain.

However, both Profar and Beltre have produced little in their careers.

Beltre, in particualr, has been a complete bust. At age 25, he’s only earned 42 plate appearances in the major leagues. He hasn’t been particularly impressive in the minors either, with a disappointing .262/.309/.380 triple slash.

Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons. He’s been out of baseball pretty much the last two years, and faces an uncertain road to recovery due to a torn labrum (shoulder).

Had the Kansas City Royals made this trade, pundits across baseball would have had great fun ramming metaphorical clown shoes on Dayton Moore’s feet for the past five years.

Next: Royals Actually Agree To Deal With Nationals, But Greinke Nixed It

Jun 8, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Washington Nationals starter

(27) delivers a pitch against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers weren’t the first team to cut a deal with Dayton Moore for Greinke. Moore had actually agreed to trade Zack Greinke to the Washington Nationals, but Greinke vetoed the deal because—at the time—the Nationals had yet to finish over .500 since moving to Washington D.C. from Montreal.

For a guy that wanted to win, a trade to another perennial loser would have seemed like a lateral move.

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Of course, today the Nationals have what many believe to be the most talent-laden roster in baseball. In 2010, Nats general manager Mike Rizzo decided to deal some of that talent in return for Zack Greinke.

Rumors indicated that Dayton Moore had a agreed to deal that included pitcher Jordan Zimmerman, shortstop Danny Espinosa, pitcher Drew Storen, and catcher Derek Norris.

This trade wouldn’t have been a disaster for the Kansas City Royals, and probably would not have gotten Dayton Moore fired. However, I don’t believe this package fits the KC Royals as well as the trade with the Brewers.

Jordan Zimmerman has been a horse for the Nats rotation, with a career 3.22 ERA and an ERA+ of 120 (20% better than a league average pitcher). Espinosa is a middle infielder with some pop, (career slash line of .232/.304/.393 with 64 home runs), but he’s a mediocre defender. Drew Storen is the closer for the Nationals with a career 2.84 ERA and 91 saves. Meanwhile, Derek Norris has become a catcher with a good stick, and one All-Star appearance last season with the A’s.

Overall, this group has produced 39.1 Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) since 2011. That’s significantly more than the Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi, and Jeffress package at 29.8 bWAR.

Yet, Norris wouldn’t have been much use for the KC Royals since the system already had a superior receiver in Salvador Perez. Drew Storen only would be the fourth best reliever in today’s KC pen (though I suppose he would have replaced Wade Davis). And the Royals would not have the spectacular defense they do today with Cain and Escobar had Greinke agreed to go to Washington.

Indeed, the Royals would have a hole in their outfield had the deal with the Nats occurred.

While Jordan Zimmerman would have been an excellent piece for the KC Royals rotation, could he have provided the same kind of clubhouse leadership that James Shields gave the Royals? I presume Norris would have become trade bait given Salvador Perez‘s presence in the KC system, but would he have brought back anyone close to Wade Davis?

We can only speculate about answers to these questions. Even so, I think it’s clear that the fit wouldn’t have been as good.

The bottom line is that the KC Royals player personnel department did a great job evaluating the Brewers system when they dealt Zack Greinke, but caught a lot of luck to avoid other, franchise damaging, deals.

Next: KC Royals Top Trade Targets To Replace Alex Gordon

More from Kings of Kauffman

• KC Royals Rumors: Is a monster move in the cards?
• KC Royals Free Agent Hunt: 3 Tampa Bay pitchers
• Grading the 2022 KC Royals: The $25 million man
• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Expectations met
• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Day 3 update