Kansas City Royals Breakdown: The Rotation

Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez was brought in by the Kansas City Royals to replace James Shields, and thus far, he has lived up to that billing. Even after his last two outings where he gave up seven runs on eight hits and nine walks in eight innings of work, Volquez still owns a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHiP. This comes on the heels of his excellent 2014 season, where Volquez posted a 13-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.230 WHiP.

So, which pitcher is Volquez? Is the the pitcher from last season, and the one that the Royals saw during April of this year? Or is he the inconsistent starter who tantalizes for a couple of starts before giving way to problems with his command? The answer may actually be somewhat in between.

As a pitcher who has a natural tendency towards the ground ball, as Volquez has a 0.96:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio throughout his career, the capricious nature of the batted ball can have a large effect on how he performs from start to start. If a couple of ground balls find a hole early on, that can dramatically impact how the game looks overall.

Last season, when Edinson Volquez truly broke through, he was attacking the opposition primarily with his sinker and curve, using those pitches 42.44% and 25.87% of the time. This led to more ground balls, and with a solid Pirates defense behind him, those stellar numbers from 2014. This season, while Volquez is still using his sinker more than the rest of his repertoire, the usage of his curve has dropped by over four percent, and his change is now the second most used pitch.

That drop in usage on his sinker may be due to the improved success against it. Opponents produced a .292 batting average on Volquez’ sinker last year; this season, they are hitting .318 against that pitch. Meanwhile, opponents have a .220 batting average against his change, and a .195 batting average against his curve.

Given that Edinson Volquez is producing right around his career norms, this may well be the pitcher we see. However, if Volquez does continue to attack the opposition and the Kansas City Royals defense does it’s part, then he may be the starter the Royals have the least concerns about going forward.

Next: The ace that hasn't been....yet

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Yordano Ventura

Along with Danny Duffy, who we will look at next, Yordano Ventura was expected to truly help the Kansas City Royals overcome Shields’ departure. Ventura has certainly displayed the potential to be an ace, especially during Game Six of the World Series last year, as he shut down the Giants to fouce Game Seven. This season, however, has been an ongoing battle against cramps, beanballs, brawls and ineffectiveness, leading to a 5.36 ERA and a 1.388 WHiP.

Ventura has been roughly the same pitcher he was last year, firing the baseball harder, and with more consistency, than any starter in the game. However, while Ventura has not seem a dramatic increase on batting average against, opponents seem to be a lot more ready for his near triple digit heater. Last year, opponents pulled the ball 40.3% of the time against Ventura; this year, that number has increased to 50.8%. This corresponds with a decrease in balls hit the opposite way, as that rate has dropped from 29.0% last year to 18.0% this season.

Part of the problem with Ventura may be the overall lack of movement on his pitches. Yes, he has been able to fire the baseball at triple digits in the seventh and eighth inning, but his pitches do not have the same sort of movement that one would hope for. It is one thing to throw at 100 MPH with movement, but it is something else entirely when that pitch comes in on a virtually straight line.

Perhaps backing off in terms of velocity could help Ventura reestablish himself. If Ventura is getting more movement at 96 MPH than at 100 MPH, he may well be better off. Likewise, backing off from the constant high octane offerings would likely help preserve his arm down the line, making him potentially less likely to deal with an injury.

Yet, even for all of the struggles Ventura has had this season, it may simply be a blip on the radar. After all, his batting average against and line drive rates are fairly similar to last season. Ventura has even seen an increase in ground balls, as 52.5% of balls put in play against him have been grounders. This would appear to be backed up by Ventura’s xFIP, which indicates that his ERA should be at 4.06 this season, as opposed to the 5.36 it currently is.

Despite having only two quality starts this season, Yordano Ventura appears as though he could get back to being the pitcher the Kansas City Royals expected this season. Hopefully, that happens soon.

Next: Are you ready to get Duffed?

Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Danny Duffy

For all of the struggles that the Kansas City Royals pitching rotation has had this season, the regression of Danny Duffy may be the biggest concern. It appeared as though he had broken through last season, as his 2.53 ERA and 1.112 WHiP belied his 9-12 record. Duffy was pitching with a confidence that we had not seen before, attacking the opposition and believing that he truly belonged in the major leagues.

This season, we have seen quite the regression from Duffy. He has pitched more than five innings only twice this season, and has put together two of the worst outings of his professional career in his past two starts. In his past 4.2 innings, Duffy has allowed ten runs on eleven hits and six walks while hitting two batters. His 5.67 ERA and 1.710 WHiP speak to his struggles this season, yet Duffy’s five wild pitches in 33.1 innings may be more of an indication of trouble than even his ERA and WHiP would indicate.

So, what has happened this season? While Duffy is walking batters at a roughly career average 4.1 per nine rate, his command just is not the same. He has caught far too much of the plate when trying to attack hitters, resulting in a .313/.388/.463 batting average against. That average has not been fueled by seeing eye singles either – opponents have a 29% line drive rate on balls put in play against Duffy, as they have hit him hard throughout much of the season.

While we have seen flashes of the Danny Duffy that the Kansas City Royals had last season, they have been few and far between. More often than not, he looks like that pitcher from before who struggled with his confidence and approach. Perhaps Duffy is pressing, putting far too much pressure on himself while trying to live up to being the second starter for the Royals, proving that he is worthy of the trust the team has put in him this season.

The Royals need Danny Duffy to pitch like the breakout starter he was last season. Perhaps sliding him back in the rotation, and taking him out of the second spot in the pitching staff, will help get Duffy back to where he was before. Otherwise, one has to wonder if he will get the Mike Moustakas treatment from last season, and be sent down to Omaha for a couple of weeks just to build that confidence back up.

Next: He just keeps going

Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Jeremy Guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie has been quite the interesting pitcher since coming over to the Kansas City Royals. He has had, by far, the best years of his career in Kansas City, proving himself as a reliable back of the rotation innings eater. Yet, every season, there seems to be a series of starts where Guthrie looks as though his place in the rotation may be in jeopardy.

However, every time, Guthrie comes back, proving himself to be the Pitcher the Royals Cannot Kill. This season has been no exception, as Guthrie started the year with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.586 WHiP in his first five starts. In his last two outings, Guthrie has looked like a completely different pitcher, giving up four runs on fourteen hits and a walk over 12.1 innings of work. Those last two outings are closer to what we have come to expect from Guthrie.

Looking over Guthrie’s peripheral statistics, he has performed at fairly close to his norm. While he has struck out fewer batters per nine than he did last year, Guthrie is primarily a pitcher who looks to induce weaker contact, making that dropoff, at least in theory, a bit less alarming. In fact, aside from one area, Guthrie has been essentially the same pitcher he always has been.

That one difference is with his line drive rate. During his career, Jeremy Guthrie has given up line drives at a 19.8% rate. This season, opponents are hitting a line drive on 29.5% of all balls put in play against him. Perhaps this is a result of that decrease in strikeout rate, and the relative flatness of his pitches compared to league average. According to BrooksBaseball and their PitchF/X tools, Guthrie’s curve, sinker and slider all have very little depth, especially compared to the league average.

Where Guthrie has really gotten into trouble this season has been with his sinker. A pitch he has 21.58% of the time thus far, opponents have been teeing off on it to the tune of a .372 batting average against. Meanwhile, Guthrie’s change, a pitch used only 16.89% of the time, is generating a .238 batting average against. Perhaps mixing in more changeups and fewer of those flat sinkers will make the difference.

We know what Jeremy Guthrie is: a solid fifth starter who can eat innings. All the Kansas City Royals need is for him to get back to being that pitcher.

Next: Maybe he was just hurt

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Vargas

Last season, Jason Vargas appeared to be perfectly suited to Kauffman Stadium and the Kansas City Royals. He slotted into the middle of the Royals rotation perfectly, posting a solid 3.71 ERA and a 1.273 WHiP. That ERA was the best Vargas has had in a single season, while his WHiP was the third best mark of his career. It appeared as though Dayton Moore had pulled off another brilliant move with the pitching staff.

This season, Vargas just did not look like the same pitcher. In his five outings, Vargas failed to get past the sixth inning in any appearance. His 3-1 record was rather misleading, as Vargas had posted a 5.26 ERA and a 1.481 WHiP prior to landing on the disabled list with a left elbow strain.

Even before the Royals knew about the injury, something did not seem right. While Vargas is not a strikeout pitcher, he had struck out a career low 4.9 batters per nine innings, while walking career high 3.5 batters per nine. Opponents had produced a .783 OPS against Vargas, the highest mark since 2009. These struggles had to be due to his elbow bothering him all season, right?

While Vargas’s ERA and FIP are almost identical, it may be that there was quite a bit of bad luck involved. Even though he was unable to command the strike zone as well as usual, Vargas was generating fewer line drives, dropping from 23.0% of balls put in play to 15.9% this season. Meanwhile, he was generating more fly balls and grounders, theoretically meaning weaker contact. However, 10.5% of those fly balls resulted in home runs.

Jason Vargas also had one of his better starts of the season prior to landing on the disabled list. He allowed two runs on two hits and two walks, striking out five in his six innings against the Indians. Perhaps Vargas was starting to see that luck begin to normalize.

When Jason Vargas comes back, he is going to be an important part of the Kansas City Royals expected postseason push. Hopefully, he was starting to round into form, and can get back to being that pitcher from his most recent outing.

Next: The wild card

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Young

Even before he got his chance when Jason Vargas was injured, there were people calling for Chris Young to join the rotation. Given the ineffectiveness of most of the rotation throughout the season, it was certainly understandable. Then, when Young threw five no hit innings with nine strikeouts in a spot start, the buzz reached a crescendo.

In the rotation, at least for the time being, due to the Vargas injury, Young has continued to perform far beyond what the Kansas City Royals could have realistically expected. In his eight appearances, including two starts, Young has posted a 0.78 ERA and a 0.522 WHiP. In those 23 innings, Young has struck out 19 batters against only five walks. His performance has truly been what the Royals have desperately needed.

Obviously, no one can expect that Chris Young will continue to perform at this level. Opponents are hitting at a mere .091/.146/.143 rate against Young, with a 14.3% line drive rate. Meanwhile, Young has taken full advantage of the Royals excellent outfield defense, as he has generated a fly ball on 58.9% of balls put in play.

Eventually, Young will likely perform at a level closer to what he has been through his career. However, now that he is healthy, it is possible that Young will pitch like the starter that was with the Mariners last year. Coming back from a year off due to injury, Young posted a 12-9 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.230 WHiP.

While Chris Young is not going to be this dominant all year, it would not be a surprise if he remained in the Kansas City Royals rotation, and ended up being one of their better starters.

Next: So what have we learned?

Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

In going over the struggles for the Kansas City Royals starting rotation this season, the issues may not be nearly as severe as they would seem. These struggles may simply be a matter of bad luck and the natural progression of young starters learning on the job at the same time. Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura, for all of their talent, are now being put in the unfamiliar role of being the Royals top starters and need to adjust to that role.

Yes, there are concerns, especially about Duffy’s ability to handle these increased expectations. However, given the Royals deep bullpen and improved offense, all that Kansas City really needs are five or six solid innings. In theory, that should not be that difficult.

While one cannot expect that the Royals offense will carry the team throughout the season, one likewise cannot expect that the rotation will struggle to this extent either. Eventually, that luck will normalize and the Kansas City Royals will be back to having the type of starting pitching that we have become accustomed to.

Even if parts of the rotation falter, reinforcements could be forthcoming. Young could remain in the rotation, and Jason Vargas is expected back at some point this season. Kris Medlen could eventually work himself back into a starting role. Maybe John Lamb can pitch his way to Kansas City and get a look in the rotation if need be.

The Kansas City Royals struggles with their rotation are not going to last all season. As you said in the poll last week, maybe all they need to do is be patient and everything will come back to usual.

Next: Royals Move Up to Second in FSMLB Power Rankings