Kansas City Royals Eric Hosmer Is The Next….???

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a question we’ve all heard 100 times in discussions with fans, on talk radio, on the internet, at the ballpark… “Who is the real Eric Hosmer?” Is he the player who had an excellent final four months in 2013 and postseason last year? Or is he the player who, at times, can look completely lost at the plate?

Is that even a fair question? Is the Eric Hosmer we’ve seen (for the most part) not good enough? I know, most people expected him to grow into some power by now…but is it okay with you if he doesn’t?

When I think of Eric Hosmer’s ability with the bat…the first two guys that come to mind for me are Mark Grace and Will Clark. This is probably because I grew up watching these two and have a good recollection of how they played and how they produced at bat.

So, let us take a look back at both Clark and Grace, and how they compare to the Kansas City Royals first baseman. There may be a few more similarities than one would think.

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Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It’s that type of slugging that reminds me of the other guy I mentioned above, Will Clark.

Clark had a more similar path to the majors…debuting at age 22. Like Grace, Will “The Thrill” also played college ball, but broke through with the Giants after only 71 minor league games. Still though…even with the college background, Clark and Hosmer have a more comparable career path by age. Again, let’s look at their first four years in the majors:

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Not a fair comparison, right? Clark came out of the gates an MVP candidate with a 155 OPS+ in his first four seasons. After managing just 11 home runs in year one (in which he played 111 games), he then hit 35, 29, and 23 homers over the next three years, respectively, for an average of 29 homers per year. Hosmer has shown nowhere near that power, yet, and he may not.

After 1991, though, Clark didn’t show that kind of power either. From 1992 through the end of his career in 2000, Clark hit 138 homers, which works out to 15 per year on average. His slugging dropped from .524 in his first four years to .483 in his final nine. Still no slouch though, Clark had a slash line of .305/.393/.483 for an .876 OPS. Hosmer would do well to have a run like that.

So…what about Hosmer? What do we make of him at this point? He’s had a couple of really good years (2011 and 2013), a bad year (2012) and an “okay” year in 2014. Hosmer, though, on the grand stage of the MLB postseason, gave the nation a taste of his potential. He became a local legend and made fans in other cities take notice. In his 15 postseason games, Hosmer had a slash of .351/.439/.544 in 66 plate appearances. Talk about small sample size.

However…something may have clicked in that run through the playoffs. Hosmer has picked up in 2015 where he left off versus the Giants, slashing .317/.395/.538, in what could shape up to be a very Clarkesque (I’m not sure anyone has ever used Clarkesque…trademarking it) season.

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So I guess we’re finished. Hosmer is the next Will Clark, right? Well…there is one other guy that comes to mind…Keith Hernandez.

Hernandez, like Hosmer, was a high school draftee and played bits of his age 20 and 21 seasons in the big leagues before sticking for good at age 22. Like Grace, Hernandez never had a lot of power, averaging 12 homers per 162 in his first four seasons. Here are his numbers:

[table id=20 /]

In his age 25 season (his fourth full year) Hernandez won the National League MVP playing first base for the Cardinals. He slashed .344/.417/.513 and won his second Gold Glove.

Hosmer probably won’t hit .344 this year…but those other numbers? I don’t know. Maybe. And I’m sure he’s well on his way to Gold Glove number three. Again…it’s only been 27 games, but Hosmer’s .933 OPS and 156 OPS+ are pretty similar to the .930 and 151 Hernandez produced 36 years ago. Plus Hosmer has enough swagger to pull off something like this.

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Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

So…1,000 words later…which of these guys does Hosmer compare to, really? Well…maybe none of them. Or maybe all of them. They all got off to much faster and more consistent starts than Hosmer. We still really don’t know what Hosmer is, exactly. But, I’d say he’s an amalgamation of Hernandez and Clark if you forced me to pick one (or I guess two – Eric Clarknandez?). He’s got the defensive prowess of Hernandez and potentially the on-base skills as well. Hosmer’s going to hit for a lot more power than Hernandez, though. Hernandez had 162 career homers and Hosmer already has 63.

That said…will Hosmer have power like Will Clark? I don’t think we’ll  see anything quite like Clark’s early run, but maybe not too far off that mark. In 2015, Hosmer is homering once every 26 at bats. Assuming he racks up 600 at bats this year, that puts him on pace for 25 homers.

Comparing this pace to his other seasons, we see he homered every 27.5 AB in 2011, every 28 AB in 2012, every 36.6 AB in 2013, and every 55.8 AB in 2014. So he’s been on a downward trend since his rookie year, until now. He’s currently homering at the best clip (just barely) of his career. That could translate into even more power as heads into his prime, or 2015 could be an anomaly. Next year, Hosmer could hit 14 homers for all we know.

In the end…if Hosmer’s time with the Kansas City Royals looks at all similar to what any of these guys did when at their best…I think we’d all be pretty happy, right?

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