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Edinson Volquez and the Importance of Getting Ahead

By Hunter Samuels

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Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Edinson Volquez is a fascinating pitcher. Prior to 2014, he was mostly known for missing a ton of bats, which is good. He was also known for issuing a ton of walks, and allowing a ton of runs, which is bad. Unfortunately for Volquez, the bad outweighed the good more often than not. Despite having the kind of stuff that can generate whiffs at a high rate, his lack of control caused far more damage than he could handle.

As you know, some things changed last year. Beyond what I mentioned in that article, something Volquez focused on last year was getting ahead in the count. It seems a simple concept, throwing strikes. Still, so many pitchers have problems with it, and that can create all sorts of trouble. For Volquez, falling behind has been particularly problematic. 

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In his career, Volquez has allowed a .262/.407/.422 line after falling behind 1-0. While he was better in 2014, he still allowed a .242/.373/.396 line, along with a 13.9% strikeout rate and 15.2% walk rate. Yes, he walked more batters than he struck out after throwing ball 1. Granted, it was slightly better than the NL average of .269/.376/.418, but those walkout and strikeout rates are still much worse.

When NL pitchers got ahead 0-1 in 2014, batters hit .218/.258/.327, and the pitchers struck out nearly 7 times as many batters as they walked. Volquez allowed similar numbers last year – .210/.276/.312 – although his strikeout (24.2%) and walk rates (5.6%) were not quite as impressive, even if they were very solid. Plus, he does have a history of racking up more strikeouts in those situations, with strikeout rates topping 30% in each year between 2008 and 2012.

So, when Volquez falls behind 1-0, his strikeout rate is cut in half, his walk rate triples, and opposing batters add 180 points to their OPS, as compared to when Volquez gets ahead. That seems like a lot. It is a lot.

Throwing strikes, and throwing first-pitch strikes, is important for any pitcher, but for a control-challenged pitcher like Volquez, it’s even more crucial. Last year, that seemed to be a point of emphasis for him, as instructed by the Pirates excellent pitching coach, Ray Searage. Just look at Volquez’s first-pitch strike rates since 2010, when he returned from Tommy John surgery.

2010: 57.1%
2011: 54.4%
2012: 53.0%
2013: 56.8%
2014: 60.2%

Volquez, in his career, throws a first-pitch strike roughly 55% of the time, but last year he topped 60% for this first time. He also posted the lowest walk rate of his career, and allowed the lowest OPS of his career. That’s not a coincidence. Volquez was more aggressive on the first pitch, and it gave him a better chance of keeping the batter from becoming a baserunner.

That aggressiveness is also reflected in Volquez’s pitch usage. Between 2010 and 2013, that pitch mix looked like this in a 0-0 count:

Fourseam: 25.8%
Sinker: 32.2%
Changeup: 15.8%
Curveball: 26.2%

Last year, it looked like this:

Fourseam: 10.7%
Sinker: 56.6%
Changeup: 11.2%
Curveball: 21.4%

When Volquez signed with the Royals, I noted that he had gone from a very even pitch distribution to one that focused on his strengths, and that change is certainly shown above. He relied much more on his sinker on the first pitch than he had before, while significantly cutting down on his other pitches. Volquez likely has more command of his sinker than any of his other offerings, and to make sure he came in the zone right away, that’s what he threw the most frequently.

There is a downside to relying too heavily on one pitch in certain situations, of course. If a batter knows what’s coming, it’s easier for him to hit that pitch. Considering sinkers are usually thrown in the bottom part of the zone, that can help a batter even more. But because Volquez has more velocity than an average sinker (94 MPH), along with plenty of movement, it isn’t the easiest pitch to hit. Plus, hitters are not terribly aggressive on the first pitch in today’s game, so until they start swinging early more often, it makes the most sense to hammer the zone.

I’m sure the Royals will want Volquez to mix things up every now and then, especially against aggressive fastball hitters, but what he was doing last year seemed to work very well. He surely benefited from the Pirates’ shift-happy defenses and facing a pitcher a couple of times per start, but the Royals are no strangers to shifting either, so I assume he’ll mostly stick with the strategy that earned him a $20 million contract.

For Volquez to be effective, he needs to get ahead in the count. The best way to get ahead is by throwing pitches in the zone. And the best way for him to throw pitches in the zone is to throw a pitch he can command. It seems simple enough, right? Pitching can be complicated, but sometimes, it doesn’t have to be.

Next: Settling the Royals Arbitration Cases

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