Miguel Almonte was Better than the Numbers Indicate

Heading into the 2014 season, Miguel Almonte entered the year ranked as the 46th best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus. This ranking seemed a bit odd, not because his 6-9 record, 3.10 ERA, 1.156 WHiP and 132 strikeouts in 130.2 innings were undeserving of consideration, but because none of the other prospect lists even had him ranked. Did Baseball Prospectus know something that the rest of the scouting sites did not?

Just looking at his record and ERA last year, one would have thought that was not the case. Promoted to the Wilmington Blue Rocks, Almonte appeared to struggle, posting a 6-8 record with a 4.49 ERA. Yet, Almonte had a solid 1.260 WHiP and struck out 101 batters in his 110.1 innings of work. That ERA would also seem to be deceiving, as Almonte had a 3.57 FIP, which would have been just a shade below the league average ERA last season.

Looking at Miguel Almonte’s statistics last year, he was actually fairly close to league average in a number of categories. Opponents hit at a .259/.326/.402 rate against him last season, not that far off from the .255/.326/.378 league average. His batting average on balls in play against was .319, not terribly far from the .309 average. Even Almonte’s balls in play ratios were within 1.5 percentage points from league average.

More from KC Royals Prospects

• The Maikel Garcia mistake the KC Royals may be making
• KC Royals Prospects: 7 selected for Fall League play
• KC Royals Prospects: What to do with Stephen Woods Jr.?
• KC Royals: 3 good candidates for 2 September callups
• KC Royals Prospects News: Top draft pick is sizzling

However, the league average ERA for the Carolina League was 3.59 last season. Why would Almonte’s ERA be that much higher than the league average, when he was essentially a league average pitcher last year? While the likely culprit would be that he served up quite a few home runs, Almonte only served up nine long balls last year, a slight uptick from the six home runs he gave up in 2013.

It may have just been that Miguel Almonte was victimize by bad timing. While his batting rates against were not that far outside of the league average, perhaps he was giving up those hits with runners on base, instead of with the bases empty. That would certainly explain the discrepancy in his ERA compared to league average.

Given his performance last year, Almonte may not be on many top prospect lists next season. However, that does not change the type of future he could have. Owning a fastball that sits in the mid 90’s, a mid 80’s change and a curve that is thought to be an average pitch at the major league level, Almonte still appears as though he could be a middle of the rotation starter.

Miguel Almonte is likely not going to receive the same attention heading into the 2015 season, but that does not matter. With a solid year, Almonte could put himself back on the lists of the top prospects in baseball, giving the Royals another young starting pitcher to look forward to.