Royals Extension Candidate: Lorenzo Cain

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

In the next week or so, the Royals will begin to reach contract agreements with many of their players. Many fans who are unfamiliar with the economics of baseball will likely express their disdain for the team only giving out one-year contracts to their talented young players. Such is life.

To avoid some of that headache, the Royals could instead choose to give multi-year extensions to a few of their better players, and I’m in the process of looking at those players as extension candidates. Earlier this week, I looked at a possible contract extension for Kelvin Herrera. Today, it’s Lorenzo Cain‘s turn.

Cain broke out in a big way last season, hitting .301/.339/.412, which amounted to a 111 wRC+ in 502 plate appearances. He also stole a career-high 28 bases and played incredible defense in both center field and right field, usually in the same game. The 28-year old was even better in the playoffs, posting a 130 wRC+, winning the ALCS MVP, and causing the rest of the country to drop their jaws in amazement at his defensive prowess.

Only Alex Gordon had a better 2014 than Cain among all Royals’ hitters, and the team will once again rely on the latter to provide value at the plate and in the field next year. Since he didn’t even start playing baseball until he was a sophomore in high school, Cain may just now be tapping into his potential, perhaps with even more room to grow.

Following such a great season, it’s natural to wonder if the Royals should look to lock up this core player to an extension. Before getting into the specifics of what that extension might look like, I would like to say that I think they should hold off on offering one to Cain until he proves he can stay healthy and productive for another (nearly) full season. He started a new stretching and workout regimen before last year, so it’s certainly possible, but there’s a lot of injury risk that comes with Cain, and I think it’s best to wait until next winter.

That’s not to say a contract extension for Cain is a terrible idea, of course. Waiting another year may mitigate some risk, but it also could drive up the cost to retain him, so I understand trying to control that cost now. He’s entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, and another solid season could significantly increase his paycheck, which would also increase his future paychecks. There are risks to both options, but we might as well dive into some comps to get an idea of how much the Royals could and should offer.

When I first started thinking about an extension for Cain, Starling Marte‘s name jumped out at me, figuratively speaking. Names don’t literally jump unless you’re on some kind of hallucinogenic drug. The Pirates signed their left fielder to a six-year, $31 million contract before last season, and they have a pair of options totaling $26 million that could keep him in Pittsburgh through 2021. Like Cain, Marte is a speedy player who plays very good defense, and doesn’t walk much at the plate.

However, Marte has more extra-base power and speed than Cain, and the former is two years younger. Cain is a better defender and plays a more premium defensive position (although Marte would be fine in center if that Andrew McCutchen guy wasn’t there), but Marte is a better offensive player. Overall, they have similar value, which is why the comparison kind of works.

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Marte was an offensive star in 2014 (132 wRC+), but that doesn’t really apply to the situation since it occurred after the extension was signed. Marte’s career line before 2014 was .275/.332/.440. Cain’s career line currently sits at .279/.326/.392. Again, we see Marte’s edge in power, but Cain’s edge in defense helps make up some of that gap.

Prior to the extension, Marte had 5 years of team control remaining, following a 47-game debut in 2012 and a full season in 2013. Even though he wouldn’t reach arbitration until 2016, the Pirates begin increasing the payouts in 2015. Cain has 3 years of team control left, and is likely going to make approximately $2.3 million this year. Because Cain is older and already a bit more expensive, I think a five-year deal with an option would be sufficient, instead of the six guaranteed years Marte received.

So if Marte’s contract is a guide, what would Cain’s contract look like?

Here are Marte’s payouts:

2014: $500,000
2015: $1,333,333
2016: $3,333,333
2017: $5,333,333
2018: $7,833,333
2019: $10,333,334

I’m not sure what the deal is with all the threes, but whatever. Since Cain is starting at a higher point, his future salaries will need to be higher as well. I might suggest something along these lines:

2015: $2,300,000
2016: $4,500,000
2017: $7,000,000
2018: $10,000,000
2019: $11,500,000

Then the Royals could add a team option of $12.5 million with a $1 million buyout for 2020, and that’s $36.3 million in guaranteed money, which may seem steep compared to Marte’s deal. However, the Royals would be buying out 2 years of free agency instead of just 1 as the Pirates did, and Cain’s already in arbitration and is expected to top $2 million in year 1 of the deal. While Marte may be the superior player, Cain is closer to free agency, and that significantly helps his case.

But let’s say you aren’t comfortable committing that kind of money to a player who will be 33 in the final year of the deal. The Royals might be able to make 2019 another option, bringing the total guarantee to 4 years and $24.8 million. That contract looks quite similar to that of Michael Brantley, who inked a deal last year to stay in Cleveland through the 2017 season for $25 million.

Before his big breakout in 2014, Brantley was an average hitter with moderate power, entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, much like Cain. The Indians’ left fielder isn’t a great defender, though, so it’s not a perfect comparison. The current version of Cain looks more valuable than the previous version of Brantley, so if the Royals only want to give a four-year guarantee, it’s probably going to take something closer to $30 million.

I’m sure the Royals would love to sign Cain to a deal like the one Denard Span signed before 2010 (5 years, $16.5M), but Cain’s service time and recent success give him a better case to receive more money.

After his 2014 production – both in the regular season and the playoffs – Cain is a hot commodity. The Royals would be taking some risk by locking up a player with an inconsistent and injury-riddled past, although another great year could make it more difficult to keep him in Kansas City beyond 2017.

If Cain continues to improve and hits free agency as a 31-year old, he’d likely be in line for a very nice pay day. But if he can’t stay on the field or regresses back to a below average hitter, his value on the open market will be quite a bit lower. So signing an extension would at least give him some security, even if he might be able to earn the most money by waiting it out.

I’m not sure which way the Royals will want to go with Cain. I could see them holding off any extension talk for another year, and I could see them fully believing in his 2014. If it’s the latter, a deal in the mold of Marte’s (with a bit more cash) would probably be fair, and wouldn’t cripple the team’s future payrolls if things don’t go as planned.

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