Kris Medlen Could Pay Major Dividends for the Royals

Normally, it would be difficult to get excited about a pitcher coming off his second Tommy John Surgery since 2010. After all, missing almost two entire seasons due to the ailment, and having the second surgery after only two full seasons pitching, is a red flag the size of the outfield at Kauffman Stadium. However, with the Royals signing of Kris Medlen last week, there is a sense of cautious optimism.

It certainly makes sense as to why that would be the case. During those two healthy seasons, Medlen was one of the best pitchers in the National League, posting a 25-13 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.096 WHiP. Although Medlen is not a strikeout artist in the traditional sense, he had a tremendous changeup and excellent control, as he had a strikeout to walk rate of almost four to one.

The biggest question is whether or not the Royals can expect that same Kris Medlen. While it is not as common to have a pitcher undergo two Tommy John surgeries, it is not entirely unprecedented. Recently, pitchers such as Joakim Soria and Brian Wilson made their return from a second surgery, and Jason Isringhausen came back after a third. Hopefully, Medlen will not need to attempt to tie Isringhausen for that dubious title.

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Based strictly on the percentages, Medlen has as much of a chance to come back and be the same pitcher as he would have if this was his first surgery. Granted, it is a smaller sample size; however, 78.7% of major league pitchers who had undergone a second Tommy John surgery as of the start of the 2014 season returned to pitch in the majors. That compares quite favorably to the 83% that were able to return to the majors following their first procedure.

It is completely understandable that Kris Medlen will not be pushed when he first returns. As of now, Medlen is expected to return in the middle of the season, perhaps being able to serve as a de facto trade deadline acquisition for the bullpen or the rotation should a starter be struggling. While Medlen may be considered more of a signing for the 2016 season, he could still prove to be a valuable pitcher for the Royals next year.

It may be foolhardy to expect that Medlen is that pitcher from 2012 and 2013 next season. However, that does not mean that he could not be that pitcher in 2016. He could even be that pitcher in the latter portion of 2015, should his rehab go well and he progresses quickly.

A lot of teams may have been scared off by Kris Medlen’s second Tommy John Surgery. If Medlen can round back into form, the Royals may have gotten the biggest bargain in free agency.

Next: Kris Medlen Signes Two Year Deal with Royals