Royals vs. Giants: Bold World Series Predictions

Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Has it sunk in yet? Does it feel like real life? Tonight, the World Series gets underway, and the Kansas City Royals will be playing in Game 1. Those are words I never really expected to type, and yet, there they are. James Shields and Madison Bumgarner will be squaring off tonight in the always-pivotal series opener, and with the long layoff, pretty much every aspect of this matchup has been covered.

The Giants have the best overall position player in Buster Posey and the best starting pitcher in Bumgarner. The Royals have the better outfield defense and the more powerful bullpen. Bruce Bochy probably has the slight managerial edge, but Ned Yost has proven he can adjust to a postseason-style of managing when need be, so any difference is likely negligible at this point. Both teams are very evenly-matched, and anyone expecting blowouts in the next week and a half hasn’t been paying attention to the rest of the playoffs.

In such a small sample, a lot of the analysis surrounding this series may not matter. The Royals may bash a couple of dingers off of Bumgarner tonight. Wade Davis may look human and surrender several runs in an inning. Billy Butler might steal another base. Anything can happen in a short series, is what I’m saying.

That being said, I thought it might be fun to run through a few predictions for the World Series, much like I did for the ALCS, when I did relatively well on a few of the points. Because if there’s anything more pointless than statistical analysis prior to a playoff series, it’s a set of relatively bold predictions about that playoff series. Let’s get right to it.

James Shields will match Madison Bumgarner almost pitch-for-pitch in Game 1.

As I wrote yesterday, Shields’ repertoire matches up well with the Giants’ weaknesses, as he throws quite a few cutters and changeups. He also is coming off a lengthy rest – which was needed after he passed a kidney stone last week – and this just feels like a moment in which Shields is ready to shine. I think he delivers a quality start before handing the game to the bullpen.

At least one of the games in San Francisco will turn into a bullpen game.

If Jeremy Guthrie pitches in Game 4, that matchup with Ryan Vogelsong could result in a high-scoring affair. Both pitchers struggle mightily against left-handed hitters, and both lineups bring some lefty power to the table. Yusmeiro Petit has been spectacular this postseason in long relief, and the Giants will likely need more of that in Game 4. As for the Royals, Danny Duffy may get an opportunity to step up if Guthrie falters.

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A Royals outfielder will misjudge a fly ball.

That right field in AT&T Park can be difficult to deal with, particularly with the strong winds. Nori Aoki has never been known for his route efficiency, so those games in San Francisco could be a bit of an adventure for him. His opposing right fielder, Hunter Pence, will also be fun to watch, even if he’s more familiar with those surroundings. The awkwardness in right field will be palpable.

Lorenzo Cain will collect at least one infield single.

Again, I’m just hedging my bets here.

Josh Willingham will get a big hit for the Royals.

The Giants have several very effective left-handed relievers, and even though Mike Moustakas has hit for some power this postseason, Yost may need to go to his bench if Moose is up in a high-leverage spot against someone like Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez. This will be an opportunity for Willingham to deliver, much like he did against the A’s in the Wild Card game.

A Royals reliever will surrender a home run.

Just as I mentioned before the ALCS, it’s really hard to go an entire season without giving up a home run, so it just feels like Kelvin Herrera or Davis may see some regression with one swing of the bat. I hope I’m wrong.

Eric Hosmer will have a terrific series offensively.

Hosmer’s been pretty hot in the playoffs, so this isn’t the tiniest limb for me to venture onto, but against a breaking ball-dependent pitching staff that is full of lefty relievers, this could be a tough matchup for him. Still, I think Hosmer takes advantage of the right-handed starters for the Giants, and hits a pair of dingers in the series.

The Royals will win the World Series in 6 games.

Call me a homer if you want, but I just really like the way the Royals match up with the Giants. I think the Royals’ bench can have a major impact in every game, and even with Bumgarner’s dominance, I think the Royals will have a slight pitching edge in the series. There are probably going to be a handful of 1-run games, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if a couple of them go into extra innings, because both teams are so similar. When it’s all said and done, I think the Royals will take the crown in front of a raucous Kauffman Stadium crowd next Tuesday night.

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