How Good are the Royals at Baserunning?

Aug 9, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) is brushed back to first base in the seventh inning against the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Last night’s baserunning debacle didn’t do much to instill confidence in the Royals’ baserunning ability. In an oddly timed pinch run, Jarrod Dyson misjudged Joe Nathan’s first movement and was picked off at second after he lost his footing on his way back to the bag. That was only the eleventh time a Royals baserunner was picked off this season, putting them exactly at league average.

Everyone knows the Kansas City Royals have a roster full of pretty quick dudes. Jarrod Dyson is the second fastest player in the majors (or third, depending on how fast you think Terrance Gore is). Alcides Escobar is fast enough to swipe 85 bases in his last 94 tries. Lorenzo Cain can cover center field and probably right field at the same time. Often, that kind of speed leads to good baserunning, so the question is not whether they’re a good baserunning team. The question is how good?

According to Fangraphs, the Royals are the second best baserunning team in the majors and the best in the American League. Fangraphs uses a statistic called BsR that assigns run values to baserunning situations such as stealing a base or taking an extra base on a hit.

Stolen bases make up the bulk of baserunning value and the Royals currently lead the majors with 133. When a team can turn a walk into a double or a situation that normally requires a hit to plate a run into a situation that only requires a bunt, it considerably improves the chances of scoring.

However, to make a real difference over the course of a season, players can’t be thrown out often. That’s the key. For instance, the Dodgers lead the National League in stolen bases, but they also lead the league in caught stealing. Their BsR is barely above average. The Royals currently lead the American League in stolen bases and stolen base percentage (83%). No American League team has done that in the past decade. The last time it happened was from the 2004 Los Angeles Angels with 143 stolen bases and 76% SB%.

The Royals also have a massive advantage over their most prominent competition, because they’ve stolen thirty more than the next-closest AL team, which hasn’t happened since the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays and only five times total in the past thirty years (Fun fact: The Royals did it 1996). The Royals have also done all this while getting fewer opportunities than most other teams (AL average opportunities: 1982, Royals: 1976)

One of the ways the Royals have stayed competitive during extensive team-wide offensive slumps is by scoring from first base on doubles. Unfortunately, they’re rarely on first base when a double is hit (only 54 times; league average is 75), but when the batter hits a double, they score 50% of the time. That’s second in the league. They’ve scored as much or more in that situation than Seattle, Baltimore and New York, who have all had more opportunities.

The team would be more competitive if they didn’t get thrown out at third base as much (4th most times in AL), but as is, they’re still the best baserunning team in the American League.