KC Royals: Have Hitters Adjusted To Yordano Ventura?

KC Royals starter Yordano Ventura has gotten hit hard his last three starts, while his walks have jumped after a strong beginning to the season. Have hitters adjusted to his increased usage of off-speed pitches?

It’s no secret that soon-to-be 25-year-old Yordano Ventura has endured a bit of a rough patch lately. After opening the season 2-0, 2.35 ERA and 8.2 K/9 in his first four starts for the Kansas City Royals, opponents have smacked Ventura around for an 8.32 ERA with 3.2 K/9 and an outrageous 9.0 BB/9.

Yeah. That’s not good at all, despite Yordano Ventura gutting out a quality start in his last outing against the Yankees going 6.0 IP while allowing three earned runs with five walks and one strikeout..

Ventura’s struggles aren’t any secret. The Kansas City Star posted this video of KC Royals manager Ned Yost talking about Ventura’s struggles this season:

Yost acknowledged that concern about Yordano Ventura is warranted, but attributed his 2 mph velocity decline to becoming a pitcher instead of a thrower. Yost added that despite increased walks, his command of his curve and change-up have improved. According to Yost, Ventura is “just missing” with his off-speed pitches instead of being wildly out of control.

The Kansas City Star isn’t the only one asking about Ventura’s poor performance for the KC Royals this season. Owen Watson looked at Yordano Ventura’s heatmaps and pitch data on Fangraphs.com and discovered that his velocity, strike zone percentage (zone%), and his release point have all changed since his debut season for the Kansas City Royals in 2014.

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According to Watson, KC Royals opponents are slugging .609 against Ventura’s fastball this season as opposed to a mere .354 in 2014. Ventura is locating the pitch lower in the zone as well as averaging two mph less. Watson points out that the increased ability of hitters to square up his fastball is a serious concern for a guy whose calling card has been a big heater.

Venutra’s increased breaking ball usage and declining velocity aren’t exactly new, he showed the same things with the Kansas City Royals last season. In the last two months of 2015, Ventura’s strikeout rate jumped as he used his off-speed pitches more often. Could Ventura’s recent struggles have come because teams have adjusted to his increased use of soft stuff?

What appears to be happening as compared to last season is that hitters have been laying off his off-speed pitches and getting into favorable counts. Ventura could then be guiding the fastball trying to get strikes. This theory is supported by data which shows that KC Royals opponents are swinging at a career-low 42.8% of his pitches and he’s already faced 13 3-0 counts in 2016, after 33 in all of 2015. Ventura’s first pitch strike percentage is also down to a career-low 54.4%, down a little more than 5% from last season.

Next: KC Royals Series Preview: Red Hot Boston Comes To Town

Yordano Ventura could be hurt, he could be struggling while trying to evolve into a pitcher for the KC Royals instead of a thrower, or his velocity could bounce back as he works into mid-season form. The hot hitting Boston Red Sox will be a good test for him on Tuesday.