Ned Yost’s Managerial Masterpiece

Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the ALCS, one of the narratives we heard was that this would be a managerial mismatch. The Wall Street Journal even went so far as to say one manager was a dunce, and the other a chessmaster. Last night, we saw that mismatch on display. Except it didn’t happen as everyone predicted.

Ned Yost is the most scrutinized manager remaining in the playoffs, while his counterpart, Buck Showalter, is the most praised. Media pundits have lauded Showalter’s creativity in using his best bullpen arms before their usual inning, and Yost has been crushed for being too rigid with his relievers’ roles, and also for bunting too much. Last night’s Game 1 showed how silly that narrative is.

I said this on Twitter last night, but Yost outmanaged Showalter, and it wasn’t particularly close.

The only possible complaint I could come up with for Yost was leaving James Shields in a bit too long in the fifth inning, when he gave up three runs to bring the Orioles back within one. It may have been better to bring in Brandon Finnegan to face the lefty Ryan Flaherty with two outs, but I mean, it’s Ryan Flaherty. He had a 79 wRC+ this year, and only an 81 wRC+ against righties, so it’s not like a platoon advantage was really needed. Shields left a first-pitch changeup in the middle of the plate, and Flaherty squared it up.

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Besides, the first two hitters to reach that inning did so on a blooper to left and a seeing-eye grounder to the right side. There was some hard contact, but Shields should’ve been able to get out of the inning without too much damage. He simply made a mistake.

After that inning, Yost managed about as perfectly as one can. He brought in Finnegan for the sixth, and even though the rookie allowed the Orioles to tie the game (on a very weird series of events), it was the right move. Once Finnegan allowed the first three men to reach base, Yost brought in Kelvin Herrera.

Herrera got out of the jam without another Orioles run, and because he looked so sharp, Yost left him in for another inning. In the 8th, Yost called upon Wade Davis, who retired the side on just 7 pitches. That kind of efficiency allowed Yost to keep Davis in for the 9th, when Davis struck out Alejandro De Aza, Adam Jones, and MLB home run champ Nelson Cruz on 11 absolutely filthy pitches.

The manager who allegedly never deviates from his plan went with his “7th inning guy” in the 6th inning, and he had 2 relievers pitch 2 innings each. Is that creative enough?

Obviously Herrera and Davis made his job easier by pitching so incredibly well, but Yost still deserves a ton of credit for going against The Book and using his best relievers – who typically pitch one inning at a time – for multiple innings. Yost pushed the right buttons last night, which isn’t something you can say about Showalter.

Despite Chris Tillman clearly struggling with his command, Showalter left his starter in until he had given up a 5th run. That was nothing compared to the mistake he made in the 10th inning, though.

Alex Gordon is a left-handed batter who has a lot of success in Camden Yards. Darren O’Day is a right-handed pitcher. Granted, O’Day’s splits aren’t too drastic this year, allowing a .265 wOBA to lefties, but when he’s at home, it’s been a different story.

In 2014, O’Day faced 52 left-handed batters at home, and he allowed a .339 wOBA and 4 home runs.
In 2013, O’Day faced 48 left-handed batters at home, and he allowed a .414 wOBA and 4 home runs.
In 2012, O’Day faced 47 left-handed batters at home, and he allowed a .361 wOBA and 3 home runs.

For comparison, Aaron Crow allowed a .350 wOBA and 4 home runs to left-handed batters this season. Buck Showalter essentially let Alex Gordon bat against the equivalent of Aaron Crow in the 10th inning of Game 1 of the ALCS.

Remind me again, who is the dunce in this managerial matchup?

Now, having said all that, I don’t actually think Showalter is a terrible manager, nor do I think Yost is the best. Almost all managers are at the same level of mediocre, tactically speaking. I simply find the national narrative about Showalter possessing some kind of upper-echelon brilliance, while Yost eats crayons, to be utter nonsense. Were Yost to have allowed a right-handed pitcher, with those kinds of splits, to face a very good left-handed hitter, in that situation, he would’ve been eviscerated. Showalter will likely get a pass.

Yost managed brilliantly last night, and gave his team a great chance to win, but ultimately, the game was decided by the players, as it usually is. That is where the analysis on this series should be focused, instead of on any alleged strategical differences between the managers, particularly when those differences don’t really exist. The supposed gap between Yost and Showalter isn’t significant enough to decide this series. That responsibility will fall to the players.