Jason Vargas’ Changeup Faces Tough Task Against Angels

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Tonight will mark the Royals’ first postseason series since 1985, and thanks to an unforgettable, amazing, indescribably exhilarating Wild Card game, the team will rely on someone other than James Shields to take the hill. Mike will have his series preview up later today, but I wanted to draw some attention to what could be the most important aspect of tonight’s matchup between Jason Vargas and the Angels’ offense.

I’ve made no secret that I am a fan of Vargas’ changeup. I wrote about the pitch in some detail a little over a month ago, and how it has been one of the very best changeups in the game in the last several years. At the time of that writing, Vargas’ changeup ranked as the 4th most valuable changeup in baseball this year. Following a few weeks of regression, his signature pitch finished the season as the 12th most valuable changeup in baseball. That’s obviously still very good, but clearly Vargas didn’t finish the season well.

Let’s take a quick look at his month-by-month Pitchf/x pitch values, by changeup runs above average:

April: 4.2
May: -1.2
June: 2.8
July: 2.7
August: 1.0
September: -3.0

Other than a hiccup in May, Vargas’ changeup certainly was an above average pitch. And then September happened. In 24.2 innings, Vargas allowed 18 runs, which comes out to an ERA of 6.57. That’s bad. He was struggling mightily, and his changeup wasn’t doing anything to help. Those run values include pitches not put in play, but when batters made contact with the pitch last month, they did much more damage, hitting .290 with a .474 slugging percentage. Prior to September, opponents hit .198 against the changeup, with a .304 slugging percentage.

Some of that difference comes from a crazy-high .391 BABIP against the change in September, but batters also were squaring it up more, despite the pitch not really losing any movement. As I mentioned a week ago, one would expect that recent trend to correct itself, and for Vargas’ changeup to return to its elite level. It could happen as soon as tonight.

There’s just one problem with that idea, though: the Angels crush changeups.

Obviously, having arguably the league’s best offense means that the Angels do a lot of things very well. They’ve got an incredibly deep lineup with talent everywhere, and of course having the best player in baseball doesn’t hurt. But the Angels have been baseball’s 2nd best team against changeups according to Pitchf/x run values, and their 14.7 runs above average total trails only the Blue Jays.

They have 6 regular players hitting better than .275 against that pitch, and 5 regular players with an isolated slugging percentage of at least .275 against that pitch. A changeup is meant to mess with a batter’s timing, but it seems like the Angels have done a pretty good job of keeping their timing right where they want it.

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That could spell trouble for Vargas, who relies heavily on his changeup, and doesn’t possess any other plus offering to go to if the Angels start to hit him hard. He’ll need to hit his spots consistently, and possibly mix up his pitches a bit more to keep batters guessing. At the very least, Vargas has to make sure to not throw Mike Trout a pitch like this one ever, ever again.

To make matters worse, the Angels destroy left-handed pitching, to the tune of a 120 wRC+, which is tied with the Tigers for the best mark in baseball. You probably realized this, but Vargas throws baseballs with his left hand. This appears to be a bad combination for the Royals.

All that being said, look no further than Tuesday night to see that baseball is an absolutely crazy game, so Vargas might come out and breeze through one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, because this game makes no sense sometimes. He is coming off extended rest, so perhaps he’ll be sharper than he was in September. He could also go to his curveball more frequently, since the Angels don’t hit that pitch quite as well, but he’ll have to command it extremely well against their right-handed bats.

If Vargas isn’t able to avoid early damage, Ned Yost could turn to Jeremy Guthrie or Danny Duffy to give the Royals a few innings, and even though Duffy’s a southpaw, he has more electric stuff than Vargas, and his fastball can overpower some of the Angels’ bats.

This series is going to be a tough one for the Royals, and tonight may be the toughest game of all. Vargas’ best pitch hasn’t been his best pitch lately, and it’s also a pitch the Angels handle very well. If the Royals are to have a chance tonight, Vargy’s going to have to pitch a great game, and it’s probably going to come down to how much success he has with his changeup.