May 17, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) breaks his bat in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

My Fangraphs Article And Royals Implications


Fangraphs published a little piece I wrote this morning.  It was of course inspired by the lack of home runs from the offense this year, and I want to talk about why in the context of the Royals the overall picture I gave for the article may be treated differently.

The home run environment is 80% of the peak that we saw in the 2000 season.  This made me wonder if it was a good thing or a bad thing for a team like the Royals who have lacked power for quite some time.  Now the answer from the article is that it doesn’t matter.  The homer to wins correlation does not seem to change based on the overall home run environment over the last 40+ years.  That means that adding power in a low power environment will not give you some sort of competitive advantage, but I am not sure that is true for the Royals right now.

Giancarlo Stanton is the player I threw out in the article as an example of pure homer power that could be acquired, and that was not an accident.  I would be fully behind the Royals going out and acquiring him especially, or a similar home run but though they are not exactly a common commodity.  My research shows that the home runs will help you win as the correlation is positive, but that being a low power team right now is no more or less advantageous than normal so overpaying for a power boost is generally not a good idea, but for this team I would be willing to overpay for one very big reason:

NO MORE EXCUSES

Over the past couple of years I have heard Dayton Moore, Ned Yost, Jack Maloof, Pedro Grifol, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and several other people in the organization talk about Kauffman Stadium not being conducive to hitting the ball out of the park.  That needs to stop and what better way to shut them up than add someone who can hit lots of home runs at The K?  You would not hear anyone saying that homers are hard to hit in Kansas City if Giancarlo’s 15 homers so far this season were on the team and he has hit 9 of them in Miami which is harder place to hit homers than KC.

 

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  • jimfetterolf

    What would you pay for your home run hitter? Stanton won’t be an FA and is the cornerstone of a rebuilding club. Not sure what we have that Miami would want, maybe Ventura, Selman, Almonte, Dozier, and Mondezi? Ventura, Perez, and Mondezi?

    • Brian Henry

      I would give a lot, but Perez is not even a possibility due to how much his contract is worth. The others would all be possibilities in my mind. I like Mondesi and would be a little hesitant on him.

    • cardsfanatik

      I don’t know why in God’s name your not willing to trade unproven talent, for a proven masher jimfetterolf. Its the most stupid thing I have ever heard. I would ship them Dozier, Mondesi, and others, in a New York minute. I would shy away from Ventura, because, if you ship Ventura, the package of others, isn’t going to be as high as if you don’t. Meaning, that if you get Ventura, your not getting our whole damn farm, but you have to give something to get something. Stanton doesn’t want to be in Miami. Miami wants him, but knows they aren’t going to sign him long term. And I’ll take trading away some “maybe’s” and then signing Stanton to a long term contract, and let Shields walk. But, it doesn’t matter, Dayton’s not smart enough to call Miami, and Glass isn’t going to pony up the cash to sign him long term. I said at an earlier article they should try to trade for him, but he will wind up in a BoSox or Skankies uni, mashing HR’s at the K at a record pace every time we face him. Its not that the K is hard to hit HR’s at, its that this line up is a bunch of pussies. And they have “fan’s” that make excuses for them, and are still praying that some of these “so called” no miss guys you mention in the minors are going to be the next George Brett. Welp buddy, that guy now plays for the Rays. Wake up. You traded away the ONE stud we had, why the hell stop now. There is good talent in the minors, but not Myers talent. And your going to come back with some comment about him hitting .250 this year…….SO WHAT? Shield’s can’t win a game, cause this offense is putrid, so what the hell does it matter? Its the same old shit, different year. Stop making excuses for them.

      • jimfetterolf

        I just asked a simple question of Brian. Maybe you have an answer for who you would trade for Stanton? We have to assume Miami would want a strong return for the prize.

        • cardsfanatik

          I would give them whoever they wanted. On the condition, if they take one of Mondesi, or Ventura, they can’t have them both. And if they take Ventura, the prospects going with him are fewer, and not all blue chip. There is still a package that Miami couldn’t say no to in there.

          • jimfetterolf

            Miami says no to that all day long. Miami does have a strong farm system already so would be looking at young impact players and Ventura and Perez, maybe Hosmer, are all we have. They might go for Ventura and Hosmer with Selman or Almonte thrown in. I’ld take that for Stanton.

          • jimfetterolf

            Rethought that, Ventura is hurt, Hosmer has one homer, and Almonte’s too far off. Need Perez, Ventura, and Mondezi.

          • catfishjohn

            Of all our prospects, silly as it is at this early stage, Mondesi is the only one I’d consider “untouchable”. If this offense continues to flounder and reek–and Miami may well be in a playoff race later this season–how about Shields, Holland, Hos, and Butler? That’s a weak offering on our end, I suppose. Butler has little value for an NL team.

          • jimfetterolf

            Butler is little value to anyone now and is short term, Miami has solid young pitchers, Holland is possible but will be extremely expensive in arbitration if he duplicates last year. Hosmer would work, as I think he’s an easy fix, he’ld be going back home, he’s under control, and he’s fairly cheap. But if I’m the Marlins I want Perez and a couple of top prospects, and that’s Mondezi and Almonte with maybe Dozier thrown in.

            Stanton is a major talent, a potentially franchise changing talent, and the Marlins likely think that with the young players they have that he’ll be more willing to stay as they become competitive. If they trade him, a team like Boston with a deep farm, big bucks for arbitration, and looking a little weak at the moment is a likely landing spot, as they also have the money to extend him.

            Shields will go like Greinke’s second move, a rent an ace for a team with money, prospects, and the need to win now. Holland is more attractive, being cheaper and under control and is easier for the Royals to replace.

          • catfishjohn

            Good points. Mostly wishful thinking on my part in terms of the players I’d be more than willing to dump. I’ll admit I’d never considered Davis as a closer until the PTP write up, but it makes a hell of a lot of sense. If we did dump Perez, though, what do we do at backstop? Cross our fingers on Cam Gallagher? I guess fringe starting catchers aren’t exactly impossible to come by and we’re talking a hypothetical reloading mode, so I could get on board. Pitching wise, we have Manaea, Adam (Suppan part 2?), Melville, Marimon, Zimmer (not holding my breath), Ventura, Duffy, Lamb, Selman, Almonte, Binford. I’d go for Hosmer, Almonte, and Dozier—or even Perez and the latter two for Stanton.

            You know what really stings, though? If our offense was close to career average, even slightly below, we’d probably be having a different conversation right now.

          • jimfetterolf

            True, but career average is what offers hope, the team is now three games under .500 after three lousy pitching performances in four games, so just simple regression suggests they’ll pull out of it.

          • Brian Henry

            I think three years of control on Hosmer plus Cuthbert/Dozier would get you pretty close.

          • jimfetterolf

            Would you make that trade if you were the Marlins? I wouldn’t, I think they can do better. Anyone think of an analogous trade? I’m blocked on this, a premium power hitter with control left. I can’t think of a similar one.

          • cardsfanatik

            I would do that, but not your one below. And I also think, your not putting enough into the fact, that Miami might actually be more intrigued by the players who aren’t going to get expensive as fast. And I think Brian Henry is right below. Miami is looking for cost control. You give them a 1B, who isn’t already pissed at the organization, and one or two higher upside, cost controlled guys, your getting close.