PECOTA projects KC as worst MLB team in 2010

Just a quick post to direct your attention to the PECOTA projections for 2010.  The projections are already getting a lot of run from various sites because the New York Yankees are slated to finish 3rd in the AL East.  Personally, I care more about the fact that the Kansas City Royals are projected to finish the 2010 season with the worst record (66-96) in all of baseball by a full 4 games.  Where’s Dick Kaegel when we need him?

If you’re curious, the Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to be the 2nd worst team in baseball with a record of 70-92.  The Toronto Blue Jays will be the next closest team in the AL at 71-91, and the Cleveland Indians are predicted to finish 4th in the AL Central at 77-85, a full 11 games better than KC.    I myself am leaning toward putting the Royals at around 65-68 wins the way things stand right now, but I can guarantee that the Royals won’t be the only team in baseball to win fewer than 70 games, and I’d put good money on at least one or two teams finishing with fewer wins than KC when all is said and done.

I’ll go out on another limb and predict that the Indians will be one of those teams 60s based on their projected “rotation.”

(Wally Fish is the lead blogger for Kings of Kauffman and FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

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  • Devon

    You really think the Royals won’t be the worst team in the majors in 2010? How can they not be the worst? I’d like to hear that one. Look at the VORP and WAR of the guys Dayton Moore has added to the team this off-season. I just can’t imagine that any other team could be worse….possibly the Pirates, but even then, I still think they’ve got a reasonable shot at being better than KC.

  • Wally Fish

    PECOTA projects that only the Royals will win less than 70 and I can’t see a scenario where that actually happens. In 2009, for example, there were 5 teams that won 65 or fewer games and there haven’t be fewer than 4 teams with less than 70 wins in recent history. I went back to 1997 and then I stopped looking when I got that far out. The range is 4-8 teams, with the average probably around 6 teams per year.

    This has been a pretty miserable offseason compared to what I was hoping for as far as the ML roster goes, but they haven’t really lost anything. Sure they have downgraded at catcher, but the OF, even if they screw up who plays where, will be better than it was in 2009. Getz vs Teahen is probably a wash but Gordon will be healthy. Aviles should be back at some point and even though Yunie is the worst everyday SS in MLB, he’s still better than what the Royals rolled out there before Yunie came to town.

  • geo

    Devon, the Royals won’t be the worst team in the majors in 2010 because they will be better than the Indians. Look at it this way: The Indians and the Royals tied for last in 2009. The Indians have now traded away Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. They had no starting rotation after Lee last year; it’s certainly no better now. Their big offseason move was to trade Kelly Shoppach for Mitch Talbot.

    For some inexplicable reason, PECOTA sees the Indians winning 77 this year. They couldn’t win 70 last year. They have done nothing to change that. I’m not sure what Baseball Prospectus is smoking, but I’d sure like some.

  • J.D.

    The rankings were updated. The Royals are up to 74 wins now, and they don’t have the lowest win total in the Majors any more.

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