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World Series Prediction and Limited Reasoning

My hatred of the Yankees runs deep and they knocked out the Twins (my 2nd favorite team) in the ALDS.  It should come as no surprise to anyone who knows me that I am picking the Philadelphia Phillies to win the 2009 World Series.  Why the Phillies?

My reasoning goes beyond a mere hatred of the Evil Empire.  It goes beyond just picking with my heart.  He are some off the top thoughts on why Philly will win the series in 6 games and end the season as World Champions.

  • Philadelphia has the best lineup the Yankees pitching will have faced all year.  They are the NL version of the Yankees and, you could argue, are a more well rounded team when it comes to the starting lineup.
  • The Phillies will be perfectly happy to get into a slugfest and are just as likely to come out ahead in that type of game as New York is.
  • Pettitte is a bit overblown when it comes to big game success.  He’s made 38 postseason starts with a 3.83 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 5.8 SO/9, and 2.44 SO/BB.  He’s been good, but he hasn’t been great.  His reputation is largely based on the quantity of post season starts and not necessarily the quality.  He has appeared in 27 postseason series and has come away with an ERA over 5.00 in 9 of them.  4 times he’s come away with an ERA over 10.00.  In short he’s very beatable and he’s now 37.
  • I fully expect A.J. Burnett to implode.
  • Pedro still has some magic left in him.
  • Hamels will recapture his 2008 magic.
  • For all the talk about the Phillies having a weak bullpen, I don’t think the Yankees’ pen, outside of the closer, is that much better.  In fact, with their 2008 WS experience in their back pocket, I anticipate the Philly relief corps will surprise people in the coming days.
  • The Phillies are the reigning champs and that brings with it an invaluable amount of confidence and bravado.
  • Did I mention I hate the Yankees?

Whether New York or Philadelphia wins, I just want some good competitive games.  If the Phillies win it, I will be a  happy camper.  If the Yankees win it, not much will change in my life.  It’s not like Yankee fans can become any more arrogant or insufferable than they already are.  The way the playoffs have gone thus far, I’ll settle for some quality games that are devoid of umpiring blunders.

Anyway enjoy watching the games and good luck to everyone involved.  Then again, since the Yankee payroll is $201 million, compared to the Phillies $113 million payroll, they really don’t need luck do they?

Update: Is it coincidence or a sign that the moment I hit “publish” on this post, Chase Utley hit a HR to put the Phillies up 1-0?

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Tags: Baseball MLB New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies

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