Breaking Down Bannister

Since being called up April 21st when Doug Waechter was placed on the DL, Brian Bannister has made 2 starts for the Royals.

He has thrown 13.0 innings for the 2009 Royals and sports a shiny 2-0 record with a 0.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  That is where the chocolaty goodness ends with his stats.  A couple important numbers indicate that Bannister’s start to the season is more mirage than reality.  The first is SO/BB ratio.  Brian Bannister has struck out 3 and walked 8 for a SO/BB of 0.375.  The other starters in the rotation have the following ratios; Meche 3.00, Greinke 5.50, Davies 1.77 and Ponson 1.70.  The next stat is BB/9.  Brian Bannister has a 5.54 BB/9.  The other starters have the following BB/9; Meche 2.61, Greinke 2.00, Davies 3.94 and Ponson 3.86. Horacio Ramirez, who Bannister replaced in the rotation, has a SO/BB of 1.25 and BB/9 of 4.32.  Finally we have H/9. Bannister’s 3.46 H/9 is actually very good, in fact it would be historically good for a starting pitcher if he maintained it for the entire season.

In fairness, 13.0 innings for Bannister is a very small sample.  Taking a look at career numbers we find the following:
Gil Meche:  1272.2 IP, 1.86 SO/BB, 3.59 BB/9, 8.93 H/9
Zack Greinke:  694.2 IP, 3.03 SO/BB, 2.36 BB/9, 9.47 H/9
Kyle Davies:  429.2 IP, 1.47 SO/BB, 4.36 BB/9, 10.31 H/9
Sidney Ponson:  1725 IP, 1.71 SO/BB, 3.10 BB/9, 10.18 H/9
Brian Bannister:  398.2 IP, 1.61 SO/BB, 2.98 BB/9, 9.26 H/9
Horacio Ramirez:  665.0 IP, 1.20 SO/BB, 3.45 BB/9, 9.88 H/9
Career numbers can be misleading because they tell a story without identifying the direction the player is trending.

In looking at Bannister’s previous 3 seasons in MLB I noticed another interesting trend which puts the brakes on my optimism to his 2009 start.  Brian Bannister typically pitches better at the beginning of the season.
These are his full season numbers:
2006:  38.0 IP, 0.86 SO/BB, 5.2 BB/9, 8.1 H/9, 4.26 ERA
2007:  165.0 IP, 1.75 SO/BB, 2.4 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, 3.87 ERA
2008:  182.2 IP, 1.95 SO/BB, 2.9 BB/9, 10.9 H/9, 5.76 ERA

These are his numbers in those years after his first 3 starts:
2006:  18.0 IP, 1.00 SO/BB, 4.5 BB/9, 5.5 H/9, 2.50 ERA
2007:  15.2 IP, 1.17 SO/BB, 3.4 BB/9, 9.8 H/9, 6.89 ERA
2008:  21.0 IP, 2.60 SO/BB, 2.1 BB/9, 4.3 H/9, 1.29 ERA

It is interesting to note that his best season in 2007 was his only season of the four, counting 2009, that he got off to a bad start.

His month by month career ERAs paint the same picture as the above:
March/April: 3.29
May: 5.33
June: 3.69
July: 5.02
August: 4.93
September: 6.87

The end result is that Bannister replacing Horacio Ramirez in the rotation was a good move.  No matter what Bannister does the rest of the season, he has won 2 games for the Royals and last I checked they don’t have to give those back if he sucks the rest of the season.  In fact, even if Bannister matches his 2008 season numbers, he will likely outperform Sidney Ponson so he definitely merits consideration for a season long spot in the rotation.  But we need to temper our enthusiasm for what Brian Bannister has done this season with an understanding of his history.

As an aside, Luke Hochevar has made 4 starts at Triple-A Omaha and in 25.0 innings pitched has a 1.44 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.29 SO/BB, 7.56 H/9, 2.52 BB/9.