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Why the KC Royals can't risk saying 'No' to James McArthur

The reliever is making his case.

By Mike Gillespie |
/ Bob Levey/GettyImages
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Welcome back to Kings of Kauffman's 2024 KC Royals player projection series. Between now and Opening Day, we'll be reviewing the 2023 performances of various Royals and predicting how they'll fare this season. Up today is promising relief pitcher James McArthur.

James McArthur is a talented, impressive, up-and-coming reliever Kansas City luckily picked up in last season's trade that sent outfielder Junior Marin to Philadelphia and brought McArthur to Kansas City. And he made fans take notice when he dominated opponents during last season's final month. His future with the organization seems bright and secure.

There is, however, one thing those fans need to forget about McArthur, and that's the first game he pitched as a Royal — and a major leaguer — in late June. It was an ugly disaster, the type of performance the memory of which only subsequent and sustained success can extinguish.

James McArthur's first big league outing was terrible

The debacle has been well-chronicled, an excruciatingly detailed feature of so many stories since written about McArthur. Suffice it to say here that in just an inning against Cleveland, he gave up seven runs (none of them unearned), six hits, a home run, and a walk. His first trip to the majors soon ended.

He returned to Kansas City for a short August stint, but giving up five runs in six innings soon had him on the road back to Triple-A Omaha. A Sept. 1 recall gave him his third big league shot of the season.

And that's when he took the first steps toward making the club and its fans forget that awful June game against the Guardians...

James McArthur dazzled everyone during his late-season work with the Royals

It's hard to find much of anything for which to fault McArthur during last season's final month, a span of 12 games as well-reported collectively as his catastrophic first evening in the big leagues. Pitching against six different teams across 16.1 innings, he didn't give up a run, didn't walk a single one of the 53 batters he faced, held those hitters to just five hits for an .096 OBA, and struck out 19. He also saved four games and earned his first major league win.

That performance put McArthur squarely in the middle of every offseason conversation about the Royals' pitching staff. Speculation swirled that he would be the reliver to replace Scott Barlow, KC's closer dealt to San Diego at last year's trade deadline, but who's now with Cleveland.

His stellar September notwithstanding, and considering all the good big league pitchers KC acquired this winter, almost all of whom are more experienced than McArthur, we reluctantly didn't include him in our recent first Opening Day roster projection (a second is coming soon). But the Royals' pitching picture has since changed — shoulder soreness has sidelined Carlos Hernández indefinitely, Jake Brentz is having a dismal spring (0-1, nine earned runs, and 11 walks in 3.1 innings), newcomer Chris Stratton is struggling (six runs and six hits in four innings), and Christian Chamberlain won't make the club after tearing his UCL.

The Royals, then, could need reinforcements; as we suggested not long ago, McArthur is a good candidate for such duty. And what makes him even more appealing is his Cactus League work this year: he's struck out six and yielded only a run, a walk and three hits in four games.

So, should he have a spot on the Opening Day roster and, if so, how will he do this season?

How FanGraphs projects James McArthur will perform in 2024

FanGraphs (Depth Charts) predicts McArthur will go 3-3 with 15 saves and a 4.35 ERA, numbers that for a reliever strongly suggest he'll spend most, if not all, of the 2024 campaign with the Royals.

How will James McArthur actually do for the KC Royals?

Unless he begins to resemble the pitcher Cleveland bombed last June, expect McArthur to be at Kauffman Stadium when the Royals welcome Minnesota for the March 28 season opener, or to join them before April ends. Either way, he'll see a lot of action out of manager Matt Quatraro's bullpen.

Just how often Quatraro calls on him depends entirely on McArthur, but fans should see him often. Because Kansas City has veteran Will Smith back in their fold, McArthur won't be the Opening Day closer, but his chances to set up Smith are good. And if the Royals move Smith at the trade deadline, which seems likely, McArthur should be a strong candidate to take his place. A handful of wins, a few losses, 15-20 saves, and a decent ERA are all reasonable to expect from him.

Things are looking up for the Royals. For the first time in years, they have a realistic chance to improve significantly, and talk of contending is taken seriously. But to become relevant again, they'll need good pitchers, and a lot of them.

And when the time comes to give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down to him, that's why the club can't risk saying "No" to James McArthur.

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